The game being played between No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 15 Houston is just much more intriguing to me. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, however the hell they calculate it, the Matchup Predictor shows a 90.4% chance of Oklahoma winning. I obviously expected them to be the favorites, but I didn't know it was that likely according to those mysterious number crunchers. Something tells me Houston is going to surprise a lot of people. A few weeks ago I wrote about my prediction of a successful Houston season, but the magnitude of that success undoubtedly relies on the outcome of this first game. For those of you, and only those of you, who are vacationing in Vegas this weekend and legally gambling (wink, wink) the Sooners are 12 point favorites. Even if the Cougars don't pull off the upset, I don't think Baker Mayfield and the Sooners will cover the spread.
So aside from the odds and percentages, what should we expect to see on the field? In terms of a "storyline" for the game, we've got one of college football's blue chip programs going up against the unexpected up and coming program. Well actually regarding Houston, this year is really a make-or-break deal in their legitimacy. The 2015 season, in which they finished with a record of 13-1, was head coach Tom Herman's first season. If Herman can lead this team to a season of similar success, which I think can and will happen, the Cougars will officially be the next up and comers. For now, they're a program attempting to avoid a hangover.
Players to watch for
Oklahoma
The most obvious player to watch for this game is quarterback Baker Mayfield.
I mean at this point, there's not much to say about this kid without sounding like a broken record. He's under the preseason Heisman radar after finishing fourth in last year's Heisman voting. He led his team to a season that earned them the title of Big 12 Champs and a berth in the College Football Playoff. Last year's extraordinary accomplishments have only set the bar higher for 2016. Baker Mayfield isn't aiming for anything less than a National Championship this year, and he's got quite the supporting cast to assist in achieving that.
This 5 foot 10 inch, 235 pound bowling ball of a running back ran for a total of 1,349 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. Samaje Perine is a strong (clearly) running back that often doesn't need to use his power because his explosiveness allows him to be so elusive. The combination of Mayfield and Perine allows for a very effective option game for the Sooners, which should have Houston shaking in their boots. To make things even more difficult for the Cougar defense, Oklahoma returns both of last year's starting offensive tackles. This Sooner backfield is expected to be one of the most explosive in the nation this year.
On the other side of the ball, the Oklahoma defense (insert Big 12 defense insult here) is highlighted by junior cornerback Jordan Thomas. In 2015, Thomas recorded 46 total tackles and 5 interceptions, earning him the No. 86 spot in ESPN's Top 100 Players for 2016 list.
Houston
Much like Oklahoma, Houston's obvious player to watch is the guy under center, Greg Ward Jr. The senior quarterback is No. 1 in both the Houston fans' programs and their hearts, especially after the immaculate season he had in 2015.
Ward Jr. recorded a total of 38 touchdowns in 2015, throwing for 17 and rushing for 21. Having a quarterback as versatile as Ward Jr. is a lethal addition to Tom Herman's coaching. But with all eyes on Greg Ward Jr., how will the Cougars' offense be able to open up the field a bit?
Houston native and former Longhorn running back Duke Catalon chose to transfer to play for the Cougars, and will hopefully be a solid replacement for last year's starter Kenneth Farrow. The 6 foot, 210 pound transfer did not play any snaps during his time in Burnt Orange, which could possibly be the motivation needed to bring his hometown some glory. It's definitely a bit suspect that Catalon didn't get any playing time for a subpar Longhorns squad, but maybe a second chance with a different team is all he needs in order to live up to the hype he had as a four-star recruit.
Speaking of the running game, we saw cornerback Brandon Wilson carry the ball a bit in 2015 thanks to some injuries. Wilson is technically a cornerback, but he sort of does it all. In the words of Uncle L.V. "Hell, the boy will fill up the Gatorade cooler, walk the dog, and paint your back porch.
Wilson recorded two rushing touchdowns during his stint in the backfield, brought two kick returns to the endzone, had a pick-six, and returned a fumble recovery for a touchdown. His freakish athleticism should be a big factor to stopping this high powered Oklahoma offense.
It's always special when you get to see a week one matchup that has playoff implications, and this game certainly does. Expect loads of offense in this non-conference battle, as both of these teams averaged more than 40 points per game last season. The over/under for this game is set at 68, and I personally would hit the over on this one. This should turn out to be a highlight reel duel between the two versatile quarterbacks, and I'm going to make the bold prediction that Houston will edge out the Sooners by the time that final whistle blows.
If the Cougars do pull of this season opening upset, I don't think it would completely wipe away the Sooners' playoff hopes. Oklahoma can still win out after a week one loss, winning the Big 12 and earning a playoff berth depending on the rest of the college football landscape throughout the season. They still made the playoffs last year after falling to an inferior conference foe in the Longhorns, so an early season loss to a ranked team wouldn't necessarily knock them out of the coveted final four.
The Sooners and Cougars kick off at noon Eastern Time at NRG Stadium in Houston on ABC. Should be a doozie. Itching to talk more college football? Hit me on Twitter @CalebBlackmur.
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