College football playoff rankings: week twelve

The weekend's rankings that were just revealed have almost the exact same top-10: all ten teams are still in there, but the numbers eight, nine, and ten shuffled amongst each other after this past weekend's games. Here's what we've got for week twelve:

1. LSU (10-0)
2. Ohio State (10-0)
3. Clemson (11-0)
4. Georgia (9-1)
5. Alabama (9-1)
6. Oregon (9-1)
7. Utah (9-1)
8. Penn State (9-1)
9. Oklahoma (9-1)
10. Minnesota (9-1)
11. Florida (9-2)
12. Wisconsin (8-2)
13. Michigan (8-2)
14. Baylor (9-1)
15. Auburn (7-3)
16. Notre Dame (8-2)
17. Iowa (7-3)
18. Memphis (9-1)
19. Cincinnati (9-1)
20. Boise State (9-1)
21. Oklahoma State (7-3)
22. Iowa State (6-4)
23. USC (7-4)
24. Appalachian State (9-1)
25. SMU (9-1)

Easily the biggest storyline to come out of last weekend is Tua Tagovailoa's season-ending hip injury in Alabama's trip to Mississippi State. Tua has certainly been one of the most exciting players these past few seasons; watching him sling it to speedy 'Bama receivers is fun as hell. He's obviously one of the top quarterbacks in the country and his absence would undoubtedly hurt Alabama's shot at beating a playoff opponent, if the No. 5 Tide manage to get there.

But that's what I want to talk about. It was already a little bothersome that Alabama is the first team out of the final four as of now, seeing as they haven't beat anyone of note. And now with no Tua under center? No thank you. Please, do not put them in there if LSU beats Georgia. "But what about Cardale Jones?!?! Anything can happen!" Valid point; if the roster is truly talented enough, they'll make it work with a backup QB, much like the 2014 Ohio State Buckeyes did with their third string guy. But Ohio State convinced the committee to put them in over TCU because they absolutely smashed Wisconsin 59-0 in the BIG 10 Championship. The Crimson Tide won't have the chance to leave that final impression in the conference title game, seeing as they lost their single most important regular season game. And look, I know a playoff spot probably shouldn't be decided on an unexpected injury. But for the purpose of entertainment value, a lack of Tua is absolutely crucial. 

So who gets the nod if 'Bama doesn't deserve it? Obviously things still need to work themselves out. If Georgia does end up beating LSU in the SEC Championship, it'd be an easy final four of those two along with Clemson and Ohio State (assuming the Tigers and Buckeyes win out). But LSU will obviously be the favorites against Georgia, so in these scenarios let's assume Georgia ends up with two losses, which I don't think should get them in.

Auburn's loss to Georgia last weekend hurt the resumes of both Alabama and Oregon. If 'Bama tops Auburn in the Iron Bowl, it certainly won't look as impressive had Auburn came out with a win. And as we know, Auburn is the only team that Oregon has lost to. The fact that the loss came in week one certainly helps the Ducks, as they've look good ever since, and have seemed to improve over the course of the season. The committee tends to like that. Oregon hasn't racked up a ton of wins over quality opponents, as the Pac 12's depth is that of a kiddie pool (the ACC's is a puddle after a mild rain storm). Oregon's one top-25 win was over No. 23 USC, who just entered the rankings this week. USC is also the only team that has beaten No. 7 Utah. That loss doesn't really hold a whole lot of value for the Utes, but USC should remain in the rankings as their only game left is very winnable against UCLA. Last weekend was huge for both Oregon and Utah in the eye test, as they both smoked their competition: the Ducks beat Arizona 34-6 and Utah smacked UCLA 49-3.

I guess it really won't matter after they take on Ohio State in Columbus this weekend, but for now I kind of feel like Penn State should be ranked ahead of both Oregon and Utah. The Nittany Lions have a more impressive resume: their sole loss to No. 10 Minnesota is more impressive than both of the Pac 12 teams' losses. They also have two top-20 wins (No. 13 Michigan and No. 17 Iowa), which neither the Ducks or Utes can claim. Again, this argument will probably wipe itself out after Penn State gets mopped by the Buckeyes this weekend, but it's worth noting. 

Oklahoma's massive comeback last Saturday dished Baylor their first loss of the season, causing the Bears to drop just one spot and the Sooners to jump up just one spot. So the committee clearly considers Oklahoma to be a very good team, since losing to them barely took a toll on Baylor's value. But the appraisal of Oklahoma in Baylor's sense doesn't really translate to Oklahoma's benefit of the situation. Either way, the Sooners' loss to Kansas State is worse than any loss suffered by the teams ranked ahead of them. They will have a chance to beat Baylor a second time in the Big 12 Championship, which would add to their squeaker of a win against No. 22 Iowa State, and their potential win over No. 21 Oklahoma State. Who knows, though, if Oklahoma State would stay in the rankings after dropping one to the Sooners.

Alright, as you were. Had to get that all out.

College football playoff rankings: week eleven

The playoff picture certainly got a nice little shakeup last weekend, with two of the top four teams suffering a loss. Last night revealed an updated top-25, which is as follows: 

1. LSU (9-0)
2. Ohio State (9-0)
3. Clemson (10-0)
4. Georgia (8-1)
5. Alabama (8-1)
6. Oregon (8-1)
7. Utah (8-1)
8. Minnesota (9-0)
9. Penn State (8-1)
10. Oklahoma (8-1)
11. Florida (8-2)
12. Auburn (7-2)
13. Baylor (9-0)
14. Wisconsin (7-2)
15. Michigan (7-2)
16. Notre Dame (7-2)
17. Cincinnati (8-1)
18. Memphis (8-1)
19. Texas (6-3)
20. Iowa (6-3)
21. Boise State (8-1)
22. Oklahoma State (6-3)
23. Navy (7-1)
24. Kansas State (6-3)
25. Appalachian State (8-1)

Per usual, the main area of focus in reaction to the rankings came in the four to six range, where we have Georgia ahead of Alabama, who is followed by Oregon. All three of those teams have one loss. You're probably aware I hate the term "good losses" but when a bunch of teams have the same number of losses, it's obviously going to matter who they were defeated by. Alabama has the best loss, which came at home to LSU, the (so far) clear-cut top team in the country. Oregon's sole loss came to No. 12 Auburn in week one at a neutral site, and it came down to the absolute wire. For now, that loss holds value. However, the value of that loss will certainly fluctuate, while also affecting the resume of both Georgia and Alabama, as the Bulldogs play Auburn this Saturday and the Tide face off with them at the end of the month. But back to losses, Georgia easily has the worst of the three, as they fell at home to South Carolina, a team that has a measly 4-6 record. 

But what matters more than the quality of losses? Beating good teams. Alabama's loss is to the No. 1 team in the nation, but they honestly haven't beaten anyone good yet. Yes, they came close at the end there against LSU, but it seemed pretty evident to me who the better team was. The small point differential and Tua's health could play devil's advocate to that, but again it's obvious that LSU is superior to Saban's Tide this year. Alabama hasn't knocked out a single noteworthy opponent, with their most impressive win being over Texas A&M. Georgia, on the other hand, has beaten Notre Dame and Florida. Oregon has no wins over currently ranked teams, but apparently they've impressed the committee with their level of play in the lowly Pac 12. So again, the Ducks' reputation is really clinging onto that nail biter of a loss to Auburn. And as I had mentioned, Auburn's efforts through the remainder of the regular season can really influence these three teams. If Georgia and 'Bama both beat Auburn, that really diminishes any value of Oregon keeping it close with the Tigers. If either (or both) of them lose to Auburn, that obviously makes Oregon look better. 

Although most of the chaotic debates revolved around the four-through-six spots, seven through ten definitely gets dicey as well. Checking in at No. 7 is Utah who has lost to USC (6-4), and has eight wins, none of which came against teams that are currently ranked. In fact, the remainder of their regular season schedule doesn't feature a single ranked team. They likely could face off against Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship, which would obviously be a solid win. But Utah's playoff chances in that scenario would still be dependent on the SEC and the Big 12 and how everything works itself out in those conferences. 

Undefeated Minnesota made the biggest leap ever in the CFP rankings, going from No. 17 to No. 8. Some may believe that the Gophers are still underrated, and that could be argued seeing as they just beat Penn State. And according to this same committee making the rankings, Penn State was worthy of a playoff spot just a week ago. Clearly the only thing holding the Gophers back is their lack of quality wins other than last weekend's. They didn't beat any of their non-conference opponents by more than a possession, and the most noteworthy conference victory aside from Penn State came against Illinois. Interpret that as you may. Even if Minnesota is underrated, the next few weeks will absolutely be make or break for them; there's no reason to complain about ranking right now. They have to get through No. 20 Iowa and No. 14 Wisconsin (also a road trip to Northwestern), and if they do, they'll play Ohio State for the conference title. Obviously if they complete all of that, their playoff berth will be undisputed. If they don't, they won't be in the final four. Simple. Doesn't matter if they're No. 4 or No. 10 right now. They have to win out anyway in order to get a playoff spot. 

And right after Minnesota, we have the team they just beat. Penn State still has a shot to beat a 7-2 Indiana team, followed by Ohio State. So they have the opportunity to completely demean their sole loss, but they'd have to win out and take home the BIG 10 Championship. Definitely not an easy task, but despite dropping their last game, things are still in their control. 

Oklahoma is definitely not getting much love, as they're the lowest ranked Power Five team with only one loss. Their one loss came to Kansas State, who is a currently ranked team. They've also taken down Texas, who checks in at No. 19. The Sooners would probably need some help from other conferences, but if they do win out, the resume won't be too shabby: they take on undefeated Baylor this weekend, then TCU, and then No. 22 Oklahoma State. Not to mention the Big 12 Championship will likely feature Oklahoma and Baylor. It'd be pretty convincing if Baylor finished with only two losses, both to Oklahoma. 

Speaking of Baylor, what is their deal? Well, clearly they haven't lost. But Baylor's list of accomplishments this season clearly isn't enough to be taken seriously by the committee. Look, in terms of the eye test, they're not out there tearing up the field like LSU or Ohio State. But they've knocked out two ranked conference opponents, topping Kansas State 31-12 and Oklahoma State 45-27. But like a few other team's I've discussed, Baylor is in control of their playoff chances. They have Oklahoma and Texas left on the schedule, followed by Kansas, and then potentially the Big 12 Championship. Like the others, if they win out and are crowned conference champs, the committee has no choice but to put them in there. 

Let's be honest. Is Alabama truly one of the best four teams in the country? Yeah, most likely. But did they overcome their only challenge of the year so far? No, they did not. A talented roster can't completely outweigh the resume, because then what even is the point of playing the regular season and keeping score? There's still a good chance 'Bama takes up that fourth playoff spot, but for parity's sake let's hope that doesn't happen. 

I know I really only covered less than half of the rankings, but it's clear that the 15-25 range is mostly composed of complete guesses. Seriously, do Notre Dame and Texas look like the No. 16 and No. 19 teams in the country? But then you think, who would I put there instead? I don't know, but for two teams who I want to see be relevant, these squads are both absolute snooze-fests to watch this season. They're not putrid or anything, but there's an absolute minimal excitement factor when it comes to these two programs in 2019. While we're at it, Michigan and Iowa both fit that description. Just mediocre teams whose only purpose is to boost the resumes of those who have beaten them. Anyway, enough ranting. We've got a solid slate this weekend, which features four matchups between ranked teams. 

Please don't panic about the first set of CFP rankings

It's hypocritical how often I say certain renditions of college football rankings aren't as relevant as many make them out to be, while talking so much about the rankings. And I'm not completely brushing off this week's initial College Football Playoff top-25, not in the slightest. Of course they matter, as it gives us an idea of what values the playoff committee holds. But the amount of overreactions I've read today has been absurd. All that means though, is they've done their best job to get people talking and debating, which is exactly what they want. The season's first College Football Playoff rankings are as follows:

1. Ohio State (8-0)
2. LSU (8-0)
3. Alabama (8-0)
4. Penn State (8-0)
5. Clemson (9-0)
6. Georgia (7-1)
7. Oregon (8-1)
8. Utah (8-1)
9. Oklahoma (7-1)
10. Florida (7-2)
11. Auburn (7-2)
12. Baylor (8-0)
13. Wisconsin (6-2)
14. Michigan (7-2)
15. Notre Dame (6-2)
16. Kansas State (6-2)
17. Minnesota (8-0)
18. Iowa (6-2)
19. Wake Forest (7-1)
20. Cincinnati (7-1)
21. Memphis (8-1)
22. Boise State (7-1)
23. Oklahoma State (6-3)
24. Navy (7-1)
25. SMU (7-1)

I've seen a lot of opinions and overreactions about Clemson, the undefeated reigning National Champion, being on the outside looking in. You can hoot and holler about how they have more wins than anyone in the country, and that the committee has no reason to doubt a program with so much recent success. You can scream and shout about how they've played nobody because the ACC is putrid, they had a close win over North Carolina, and Trevor Lawrence isn't living up to the expectations set in the preseason. There are valid points on both sides of that argument, but please don't waste too much of your precious breath on that for the moment. These rankings will undoubtedly work themselves out. If Clemson is as good as they should be, they will win out. It is impossible for more than two of the four teams ahead of them to finish without a loss, as Alabama plays LSU and Ohio State plays Penn State. So it's inevitable for Clemson to hop into the top-four pretty much immediately, making all of that yapping and yelling completely useless.

I personally thought the top two would be LSU first, followed by Ohio State. I don't particularly disagree with the flip side of that though; the Tigers have the most impressive accomplishments thus far in terms of scheduled opponents, while Ohio State has simply looked the best in terms of straight up domination and skill. It seems pretty obvious that bias played a factor in Alabama being No. 3, as they honestly haven't beaten anyone noteworthy, much like Clemson. It's absolutely fine that Clemson's recent success doesn't automatically grant them a top spot, as these rankings should have nothing to do with previous rosters in seasons past. But that should also be the case for Alabama. And again, we can discuss all we want about how 'Bama ain't played nobody. Yet in a few days that discussion will be dead, as the Tide play the No. 2 team in the country. So by the time Saturday evening rolls around, Alabama will have certainly played somebody. If they lose, well they'll obviously no longer be considered the No. 3 team nationwide and they'll drop in the rankings. If they beat LSU, they'll have some pretty convincing evidence that they're a top-two team in the country. It's  that simple.

Some may think Minnesota is underrated at No. 17, as they have yet to lose a game. But let's remember, both resume and the eye-test are taken into consideration. Minnesota hasn't really caught the attention of many eyes with their play, and their pristine record has come against a bunch of chumps. The Golden Gophers will have their chance to increase approval ratings when they play Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. If they beat those teams, then of course they're legit. If they don't, then they are who we thought they were.

The Big 12 and Pac 12 Champs (presumably a combo of Oklahoma/Baylor and Oregon/Utah) might still be on the outside looking in even if they win out. They'd likely need some pieces to fall into place in their favor, but these things will play out and if there's still drama after the conference championships are done, then the heated discussions will be worth it. For now, there's really no reason to get worked up about the CFP top-25. When Ohio State won the inaugural College Football Playoff, they were No. 16 in the committee's first rankings. No team that is capable of reaching the playoff is currently in a situation completely out of their hands right now.