Just two weeks after the designation for assignment of Pablo Sandoval, it appears as though the magnificent list of "worst free agent signings in Red Sox history" could use an update.
Now, David Price's performance has been leaps and bounds better than Sandoval, Carl Crawford and Rusney Castillo, the three most common answers when it comes to biggest free agent bust in Fenway lore.
Price's ERA with the Red Sox (3.95) is nowhere near worth the $31 million per year he's earning, but it's still a better figure than any number of the other big name starting pitching acquisitions by the Sox this millennium this side of Chris Sale. Price's ERA with the Red Sox is lower than that of Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Matt Clement, David Wells, Jake Peavy, Rick Porcello and -- stunningly -- the exact same as Curt Schilling's from 2004-2007.
Say what you want about Schill. He is crazier than your craziest uncle by a factor of 10. But don't tell me he isn't the preeminent big game pitcher of our generation. He was also 37 when he came to Boston, whereas Price was 30.
Price could absolutely be salvageable beyond this point. Look no further than Lackey's resurgence in 2013. But this isn't really about that.
For what seems like the umpteen millionth time, this comes back to John Henry and/or Larry Lucchino's decision to offer Jon Lester a four-year, $70 million contract extension prior to the 2014 season.
Full disclosure: Lester was coming off a mediocre 2012 season (9-14, 4.82 ERA) and a good-not-great 2013 (15-8, 3.75 ERA).
Lester was seemingly at a crossroads about halfway through the '13 campaign, but over his final 10 regular season starts he posted a 2.19 ERA. Then he went 4-1 with a 1.56 ERA in the playoffs that year, holding opponents to a paltry .560 OPS.
Was that not a big enough sample size to prove Lester was back on track? Apparently not. Warrants mentioning that save for cancer in his rookie season (2006) and the recovery time necessary into '07, Lester had made 31 starts or more for six straight seasons. Think about that. Cancer was the only thing that could slow Lester down. And he kicked its ass.
As we near the three year anniversary of the deal that sent Lester (and Hacksaw Jonny Gomes) to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes on July 31, 2014, the contrast between Lester and his de facto replacement in Price has never been more apparent. It's even more apparent now than that time when Lester went 3-1 with a 2.02 ERA for the World Champion Cubs last October while Price couldn't even make it out of the fourth inning in his lone postseason start for the Red Sox a season ago.
If you don't trade Lester at the deadline in '14, you don't ultimately spin off Cespedes for Porcello, who did win the American League Cy Young award last season. Porcello's ERA (3.15) was still over half a run higher than Lester's with the Cubs (2.44; Lester wound up finishing second in Cy Young voting to Max Scherzer).
So in a sense, this comes down to having only Lester, or having Porcello AND Price. Well, what if I told you that you also could have thrown virtually the same contract figure at Scherzer after the '14 season (seven years, $210 million) that Price wound up signing after the '15 season (seven years, $217 million)?
The inability of Henry and Lucchino to read the market created an impasse with Lester, who ultimately signed with the Cubs for six years, $155 million after the 2014 season, forced the Red Sox to sign the petulant child that is David Price after the 2015 "Five Aces" debacle.
Say Lester had actually taken a "hometown discount" (five years, $115 million rather than $70 million? Spit balling here), the Red Sox still could have conceivably made a run at Scherzer.
They likely would have had to outbid the Nationals for Scherzer; perhaps the deal would have stretched to $220 million, which still would have made Scherzer the highest paid pitcher in the game over Clayton Kershaw. I'm assuming that's what he and agent Scott Boras wanted to ensure all along.
Do the math; that's Lester and Scherzer for $335 million vs. Price and Porcello (who signed an $82.5 million extension) for $299.5 million.
How could Red Sox ownership have offset those costs? Maybe by not throwing $95 million at Sandoval in the first place in the very same off-season. A kid named Travis Shaw was coming up through the minor leagues at third base right around that time.
I'm not saying Price's elbow isn't sore at all, but then again, how severely did Rodney Dangerfield actually break his arm in Caddyshack?
At the very least, Price will be able to watch the Baseball Hall of Fame inductions this weekend.
Three new players are getting inducted, or one for each World Series ring Jon Lester now has in his career.
The timing of Price's injury sure won't help him trend away from that bust label he's earning. But again, it's Hall of Fame weekend. He could check out Dennis Eckersley's which is, in fact, on display in Cooperstown.
Friday, July 28, 2017
Tuesday, July 25, 2017
Feeling The Heat: Which College Football Coaches Are On The Hot Seat Heading Into 2017?
Even with the 2017 college football season still about a month away, the pressure is on and the walls are beginning to close. If these 10 guys don't turn things around or win the big one in 2017, some of the nation's biggest head coaching jobs could suddenly become open.
Had Hugh Freeze not decided to play a game of phone tag with a local escort service on a school-sponsored phone, he would have been one of the top names on this list with all of the pressure he was under as well as the NCAA probes going on at Ole Miss. Fortunately but unfortunately for Freeze, his tenure in Oxford came to end following his forced resignation last week.
1. Brian Kelly (Notre Dame)
Pressure comes with the job title in South Bend. But, when you go 4-8 with losses to all of your biggest rivals (Navy, USC, Stanford, Michigan State) as well as a bad home defeat to Duke, the pressure soars through the roof and the hot seat becomes almost scolding. Brian Kelly's task of bouncing back and getting Notre Dame to return to national prominence is going to have some significant challenges with the departures of starting quarterback DeShone Kizer (NFL) and one of his top wideouts from 2016 in Torii Hunter Jr (concussions, pursuing baseball instead). A week-two date with Georgia will serve as a good testament as to whether or not this team has what it takes to save Kelly's job. If the Irish fail to win at least eight games and get back to a mid-high level bowl game, it'll likely be the end of the Brian Kelly era at Notre Dame.
2. Butch Jones (Tennessee)
Butch Jones has done nothing but improve the culture of Tennessee football since his arrival in 2013, leading the Vols to three straight winning seasons and bowl victories. Unfortunately for Jones, expectations at Tennessee are wildly high as the fans, alumni, and boosters want more than a 4-4 conference record. Jones and the Vols will likely need to take the next step and win the SEC East in 2017 in order to silence the critics. It'll be hard to fire a coach who leads his team to a third straight 8-4/9-3 season and fourth straight bowl game, but after the departures of Les Miles from LSU and Mark Richt from Georgia, a strict standard of expectations has been set in the SEC and that is that you have to win your division if you want to hang around. Butch Jones has yet to do so at Tennessee, despite beating both Florida and Georgia last season. If last year wasn't Tennessee's year to head to Atlanta, when will it be?
3. Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M)
From breeding lightning rod and NFL bust Johnny Manziel to having a multitude of his quarterbacks (Kenny Hill, Kyle Allen, Kyler Murray) transfer out and cite culture issues within the program, it's been a wild and semi-controversial ride for Kevin Sumlin in Aggieland. 2017 serves as a massive season for Sumlin, and how the Aggies fare in the SEC West could decide whether or not Sumlin remains at the helm. Two of A&M's first four games are against programs also fighting to help their coaches keep their jobs (UCLA, Arkansas) so expect a couple intense dogfights to start the season for the Aggies. A back-to-back set at home against Alabama and Florida will likely decide the fate of A&M's season as well as Sumlin's future at the school.
4. Rich Rodriguez (Arizona)
Last season was a disaster for Rich Rodriguez and the Arizona Wildcats, finishing at 3-9 (1-8 PAC-12). UA's offense never got going, scoring 17 or fewer points five times. In 2017, Rich Rod's team needs to make a major jump in order for him to remain as head coach, but weak recruiting classes and shake ups to the defensive coaching staff will make that task extremely difficult. Unless the Wildcats can somehow manage to climb back to bowl eligibility, this could be Rodriguez's final go out in Tuscon.
5. Jim Mora (UCLA)
Despite opening the season 3-2 following tough losses to Texas A&M (31-24 in overtime) and Stanford (22-13), UCLA still had hopes of a PAC-12 South crown in 2016, but that all went out the window once quarterback Josh Rosen suffered a season-ending shoulder injury against Arizona State. After Rosen went down, the Bruins lost six of their final seven to finish the season 4-8. Obviously, a lot of the lack of success that took place last season was not Jim Mora's fault, but year-by-year regressions over the past three seasons (10-4 in 2013 and 2014, 8-5 in 2015, 4-8 last season) have generated a lot of discussions involving the future of Mora in Westwood. If UCLA is able to bounce back and return to a bowl game in 2017, Mora should be safe. But, if the Bruins falter and miss out on a bowl game for a second straight year with Josh Rosen back and healthy, it will likely lead to a coaching change.
6. Mark Dantonio (Michigan State)
In his 10-year tenure in East Lansing, Mark Dantonio has done almost everything that Michigan State fans and boosters could have possibly asked, appearing in nine bowl games (4-5 record), winning two outright BIG-10 titles and one shared, a victory in the Rose Bowl over Stanford (2014), and cracking the College Football Playoff (38-0 loss to Alabama in 2015 Cotton Bowl). Unfortunately, all that matters in today's dog-eat-dog college football world is the present, and after coming off a 3-9 season that saw the Spartans fall off the cliffs of relevance, the pressure is on Mark Dantonio is intensifying as we enter the 2017 season. Obviously, Michigan State boosters and alumni have taken notice to the resurgences from Jim Harbaugh's Michigan Wolverines and James Franklin's Penn State Nittany Lions after both programs took down Sparty rather handily in 2016 and earned spots in New Year's Six bowl games. If the Spartans do not bounce back and get to a bowl game in 2017 while competing with Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State in the BIG-10 East, Dantonio could be shown the door, as crazy as that may sound.
7. Kliff Kingsbury (Texas Tech)
Even with a record-breaking quarterback like Patrick Mahomes (5,000+ passing yards, 53 touchdowns responsible for), the Red Raiders still finished the 2016 season 5-7 and missed out on a bowl game. Much of Tech's lack of success last season was thanks to having one of the nation's worst defenses, ranking dead last in FBS in both total and scoring defense. In four seasons under Kliff Kingsbury, the Red Raiders have been a middle of the road team in the BIG-12, appearing in two bowl games (1-1 record). Entering his fifth season, every player on TTU's roster will have been recruited by Kingsbury, so labeling underperforming players/defenses as the fault of former head coach Tommy Tuberville will no longer be an acceptable excuse. Tech's defense and overall results need to improve drastically in order for Kingsbury to keep his job. If the Red Raiders don't at least get back to a bowl game in 2017, Kingsbury will likely be out of Lubbock.
8. Steve Addazio (Boston College)
BC has had a handful of big wins during the Steve Addazio era, including a 37-31 upset of USC in 2014 and last season's Quicklane bowl win over Maryland (36-30), the program's first bowl victory since 2007. Unfortunately, the negatives and excruciatingly painful losses (3-0 to Wake Forest in 2015, 31-30 in overtime in the 2014 Pinstripe Bowl to Penn State, 21-14 to Colorado State a week after upsetting USC in 2014) during Steve Addazio's time at the Heights have outweighed the positives. A lot of BC's issues following the end of the Matt Ryan era back in 2007 cannot be put on Steve Addazio, as the recruitment done by Jeff Jagodzinski was deplorable, to say the least, and Frank Spaziani didn't exactly leave Addazio in the best situation. The departure of athletic director Brad Bates and the hiring of Martin Jarmond means that 2017 could be a make-or-break point for Addazio. No bowl game for BC in 2017 and Jarmond probably makes his first big move as the new AD in Chestnut Hill and finds a new football coach. If BC can build off of last season's success by staying competitive in a deep ACC Atlantic Division and get back to a bowl game, Addazio should be safe. Linebacker Connor Strachan and defensive end Harold Landry both need to have a big season in order for the Eagles to do that. BC opens up the season at Northern Illinois followed by home contests with Wake Forest and Notre Dame before a road date with defending national champ Clemson.
9. Bret Bielema (Arkansas)
Despite the backing from Arkansas AD Jeff Long, Bret Bielema's job security is still very much in question after a 7-6 season in 2016 dropped his overall record throughout his four seasons at Arkansas to 25-26 and 10-22 in the SEC. The Razorbacks had a handful of quality wins in 2016 including No. 10 Florida (31-10), No. 12 Ole Miss (34-30), and No. 15 TCU (41-38 in overtime), but a bad 28-24 loss to Missouri in the final week of the regular season and a 35-24 loss to Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl put a sour end to a once very promising season. Bielema's power-running style is perfect for facing rugged SEC defensive-fronts like LSU, Alabama, and Auburn, but the Hogs need to be more versatile in 2017 when it comes to their offense and not drop a stinker or two like they did against Missouri in order to stay competitive within the division. If Arkansas can do that and win at least eight games in 2017, Bielema's status as head coach should remain intact.
10. Chris Ash (Rutgers)
From a football perspective, it's safe to call the big move to the BIG-10 a complete disaster thus far for Rutgers. The Scarlett Knights have seen nothing but regression since the realignment, going 8-5 in 2014, 4-8 in 2015, and 2-10 in 2016 with a 0-9 conference record. Being in the BIG-10 East, it is going to be extremely difficult for Rutgers to compete in 2017. Thus was made clear last season when the Scarlett Knights were outscored a combined 136-0 against the class of the division, Michigan and Ohio State. Step one in getting this sinking this above water is to win a conference game, but even that may not be enough to save Chris Ash's job. Rutgers faces a grueling schedule this season having to open up the campaign at home against defending PAC-12 champ Washington before back-to-back games against Michigan and Ohio State to begin October to go along with their normal BIG-10 state (Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan State), so more likely than not, a coaching change could be coming in Piscataway. It might seem unfair to Ash given the short period of time he's been given to win and rebuild this program, but Rutgers is in desperate need of a reboot.
Monday, July 24, 2017
Tom Brady's Targets: 2007 vs. 2017
A few nights ago I spent the evening as most adults do, going down a rabbit hole of YouTube highlight tapes of all the guys Tom Brady will be throwing to this upcoming season. One thing led to another, and whoops! There I am for the millionth time down the Randy Moss highlight rabbit hole. I could watch Randy Moss play football all day. High school highlights, college highlights, film from him playing for any of his five NFL teams, interviews, anything. Moss this Moss that, the guy is a legend.
Watching Tom Brady throw 23 touchdown passes to Randy Moss was incredible, although the season's end result was much less than ideal and even less expected. There's no way Brady could ever replicate that season, throwing for 56 total touchdowns and 5,543 total yards in 19 games. The greatest quarterback of all time was throwing to the greatest wide receiver of all time.
But taking a look at Tom Brady's targets for the 2017 season, it's hard not to think that life will be somehow easier for the 40 year old QB than it was in 2007. And according to Twitter, the large majority of people agree with me:
Brady to moss was one of the greatest duos to ever grace the football field, but the receiving corps a decade ago had nowhere near the depth that this 2017 squad boasts. The greatest quarterback of all time will be throwing to the greatest tight end of all time, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Malcolm Mitchell, Chris Hogan and Dwayne Allen. Not to mention a loaded backfield featuring James White and Dion Lewis, amongst many others, who we all know can be utilized successfully for Brady's quick screen passes and wheel routes. NFL opponents, find the limit of this equation.
The limit does not exist with that plethora of reliable targets. I truly have no idea how this offense can be stopped. I mean just think about it, the Pats just won a Super Bowl without Gronk. Sure, they lost Marty Bennett to Green Bay but I'll take Gronk and Dwayne Allen over Marty any day of the week. No offense to Marty there.
The duo of Amendola and Edelman has proven to be very reliable for TB12 over these last few seasons. To be honest, I was very anti-Amendola when he first came to New England, but his postseason heroics have changed that view forever. And Edelman, well not much needs to be said for him. Jules and Brady have the same chemistry a father and son have tossing the pigskin in the backyard on a Sunday morning.
Malcolm Mitchell really proved himself as a worthy draft pick in his rookie season, and I'm excited to see what the future holds for him. He's a solid deep threat for the Pats offense that loves throwing quick, short passes. The only problem is, Mitchell might not be ready to fully take on the role as the main deep threat.
Oh wait, never mind. That won't be a problem at all since somehow, someway, the Patriots acquired Brandin Cooks, who should be catching plenty of bombs from Brady.
Cooks can absolutely fly down the field; he ran a 4.33 second 40-yard dash at the 2014 NFL combine. In each of his last two seasons, Cooks tallied over 1,100 yards. In 2015 he caught nine touchdown passes, and in 2016 he had eight.
Now I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Brandin Cooks will be putting up Randy Moss numbers. That'd be preposterous. What I'm saying is that Brady will likely put up similar numbers in 2017 as he did when Moss was on the Patriots. There are simply too many reliable targets for the defense to cover. He'll have the ability to spread the ball like we've never seen before.
Brady's numbers in '07 really speak to how damn good Randy Moss was. Everyone knew the ball was going to him, but he was just one of those elite receivers that nobody could do anything to stop. Aside from Randy, the 2007 Patriots receiving corps wasn't quite what we're about to witness this fall. Wes Welker was another great target, as he racked up 1,175 yards and eight touchdowns, very similar to Cook's performance in the last two years. After Moss and Welker, the list of receivers/tight ends wasn't particularly star-studded; Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney, and Ben Watson had the majority of non-Moss/Welker receptions.
At the end of the day, I never thought I'd be able to witness Brady play the way he did in that almost undefeated season a decade ago. But with the arsenal that TB12 is dealing with this year, I think that'll be proven wrong.
Sunday, July 23, 2017
College Football: 2017 BIG-12 Preview, Storylines, Teams To Watch
Times are changing in the BIG-12. Bob Stoops is gone from Oklahoma and Tom Herman takes over at Texas. Oklahoma State and Kansas State are being picked as dark horses to win the conference, and Baylor finally decided that beating and sexually assaulting women wasn't kosher. The biggest change of all, however, is that the BIG-12 is no longer a battle for first place, as the conference is going back to a championship game format at AT&T Stadium on December 2, meaning that second place in the conference is just as good as No. 1.
Personally, I think it's a mistake that the BIG-12 is doing a conference championship with only 10 teams and no divisional format. If a 10-2 Oklahoma team meets up with a 12-0 Oklahoma State down in Arlington and OU comes out victorious, it'll basically put an end to the conference's hopes of putting a team in the playoff. Or, there's the scare of West Virginia and Oklahoma facing off in their final BIG-12 regular season game and resting everybody and then playing the following week down at Jerry's World.
But, to all the BIG-12 purists, don't worry. Kansas is still a dumpster fire, so not everything in the BIG-12 is getting a make over in 2017. Let's do this.
Baylor began last season 6-0 surprisingly, including a win at home against Oklahoma State. However, the Bears fell in each of their final six regular season contests but were still able to earn an invite to the Cactus Bowl, where they defeated Boise State (31-12) to end the season above .500 at 7-6. It's hard to say what one should really expect from the Bears in 2017 considering the fact that the program and school as a whole are in the midst of a massive culture change. Matt Rhule was hired from Temple to come in and clean up the mess that was left behind by Art Briles and Ken Starr, so hopefully, 2017 will be the beginning of a resurgence in the Baylor football program, both on and off the field.
At quarterback, Baylor actually has a handful of options. One, being Arizona graduate transfer Anu Solomon, and the other being sophomore Zach Smith. Solomon's skillset as a scrambler certainly fits into Baylor's spread up-tempo style of offense, but Smith's ability to throw the ball could put him over Solomon and earn him the starting spot. A battle in camp will ultimately have the final say. At receiver, Baylor will need to adjust with the departures of top pass-catchers KD Cannon and Ishmael Zamora. However, the Bears do return a young corps of wideouts that are extremely versatile in redshirt junior Chris Platt, redshirt sophomore Blake Lynch, and redshirt sophomore Pooh Stricklin. At running back, Baylor returns one of the best one-two punches in the country with redshirt junior Terence Williams and redshirt sophomore JaMychal Hasty. Baylor's offensive line also returns three starters including senior left guard Ishmael Wilson.
Defense has never been Baylor strong suit, but the Bears return a significant number of starters and big-time playmakers in 2017 beginning with redshirt junior defensive end and Cactus Bowl MVP Greg Roberts. Also back on the Baylor front seven are senior All-BIG-12 left end K.J. Smith and four-year starting linebacker Taylor Young. Baylor's secondary will be young but loaded with talent as a pair of versatile sophomore corners in Grayland Arnold and Jameson Houston serve as the unit's anchors with redshirt sophomore Henry Black providing coverage over the top as the deep safety.
Baylor gets to host Texas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia this season but will have to go on the road to Stillwater and Lawrence to face Oklahoma State and K-State. It might a while until Baylor is back competing for a conference title, but with so many starters returning on both sides of the ball and the hiring of a new coach who emphasizes the creation of a clean and winning culture, there is no reason why the Bears shouldn't improve upon last season's 7-6 record. 8-4/7-5 is a pretty reasonable expectation.
A 25-20 opening weekend loss at home to FCS opponent Northern Iowa set the tone for a pretty lousy season in 2016 for Iowa State. The Cyclones played Oklahoma State (38-31 loss) and Baylor (45-42 loss) tough to go along with wins over San Jose State (44-10), Kansas (31-24), and Texas Tech (66-10), but the negatives heavily outweighed the positives last season, as Iowa State finished at 3-9 and placed ninth in the BIG-12. In order to compete with the high octane offenses present in the BIG-12, Iowa State needs to improve significantly with their offensive efficiency, as the Cyclones finished last season ranked No. 71 nationally in scoring offense. Matt Campbell enters his second season at the helm in Ames with the goal of making some significant improvements, but with a tough conference schedule that features road matchups against Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas State, and Baylor, the improvements may not show up in the W/L column.
The centerpiece of Iowa State's offense in 2017 will be wideout and likely early-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Allen Lazard, who is coming off a 69-reception, 1000+ yard, seven-touchdown effort in 2016. Redshirt junior Jacob Parker is back under center after winning the starting job last season. The chemistry formed between Parker and Lazard in camp is going to be critical in order for Iowa State to stay relevant in the BIG-12, but another name to keep an eye out for is sophomore wideout Deshaunte Jones, who figures to serve as the team's No. 2 man out of the slot.
Defensively, Iowa State should see some major improvements up front with the editions of three highly touted junior college transfers in nose tackle Ray Lima, defensive tackle Kamilo Tongamoa, and defensive end Matt Leo. Sophomore end JaQuan Bailey is another name to look out for after racking up 3.5 sacks in 2016 as a true freshman. A major weak point of this defense, however, will be at linebacker as the Cyclones only return one starter from last season in junior WLB Willie Harvey. The secondary will be anchored by senior safety Kamari Cotton-Moya while redshirt juniors Brian Peavy and D'Andre Payne do their parts at corner.
This program is definitely trending in the right direction, but there are still a lot of things that Matt Campbell and his staff need to address in both play-calling, personnel, and recruiting to get Iowa State where it wants to be. Four or five wins is a reasonable expectation, but holes at linebacker and a young offensive line will likely keep the Cyclones out of a bowl game.
The gap in talent between Kansas and the rest of the BIG-12 is insane. It's now been a full decade since the Jayhawks went 12-1 and defeated Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl back in 2007, and ever since, the program has free fallen into irrelevance. The Jayhawks have won just two total games throughout last two years, with a 24-21 win in overtime over Texas to "improve" to 2-9 at the time serving as last season's Super Bowl. Strides are being made to get Kansas football back on the map, but there is still a long way for this program to climb.
KU's tradition of quarterback instability continues in 2017, as the Jayhawks enter camp without a definitive starter. Junior college transfer Peyton Bender is currently listed as the No. 1 quarterback on the team's depth chart, but he'll have to fight off redshirt sophomore Carter Stanley in camp to solidify his place under center. At receiver, Kansas returns some solid talent from last season in Texas A&M transfer LaQuivonte Gonzalez, junior Steven Sims, and sophomore Daylon Charlot. Both Gonzalez and Sims had 700+ yards receiving in 2016, so both are sure to build upon that and become the centerpieces of KU's offensive attack this season. The Jayhawks will likely lean towards a committee approach at running back made up of sophomore Khalil Herbert, junior college transfer Octavius Matthews, sophomore Taylor Martin, and highly touted incoming freshman recruit Dom Williams. Herbert, who is returning from a season-ending foot injury last season, figures to get the bulk of the carries to begin the season. KU's offensive line returns four starters including sophomore All-BIG-12 honorable-mention left tackle Hakeem Adeniji.
The majority of Kansas' issues reside on the defensive side of the ball, as the Jayhawks return none of their four starters from a season ago. The strength of the Jayhawk defense, if there is one, will be its front seven, highlighted by redshirt junior linebacker Joe Dineen Jr who returns from a hamstring injury that cut his 2016 season short. All-BIG-12 defensive tackle Daniel Wise and 10-sack defensive end from last season Dorance Armstrong Jr are both back as well.
We'll see whether or not Kansas is able to surprise anybody this year and win a couple of games in the BIG-12, but again, the gap in talent is pretty significant compared to the rest of the conference. The way Kansas' schedule is set up having to face K-State, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to end the season does them zero favors. Four wins is a generous ceiling for this team.
Coming off a nine-win season in 2016 and Texas Bowl victory over Texas A&M, Bill Schneider’s Wildcats have high hopes headed into 2017. Early-season losses at Stanford (26-13) and at West Virginia (17-16) kept K-State out of the College Football Playoff picture, but the Wildcats still were well within the hunt for a BIG-12 title. However, losses to Oklahoma (38-17) and Oklahoma State (43-37) dropped Kansas State to 5-4 and out of the BIG-12 race. The Wildcats finished the year on a four-game win streak including the bowl victory over the Aggies in Houston.
In 2017, K-State returns quarterback Jesse Ertz as well as four of their five offensive linemen. A weak non-conference schedule (Central Arkansas, Charlotte, Vanderbilt), as well as a favorable BIG-12 slate that includes home matchups with West Virginia and Oklahoma, has a lot of KSU fans thinking big. The bread and butter of K-State’s offense is their passing attack, but the ground game featuring the legs of Ertz (1,012 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns), junior running back Justin Silmon, and fullback Winston Dimel should work wonders behind a strong Wildcat offensive line and give Bill Schneider’s team some much need versatility.
KSU’s BIG-12 best defense from a season ago returns six starters, highlighted by redshirt sophomore defensive end Reggie Walker and redshirt junior defensive back D.J. Reed. Defense is often something that BIG-12 teams lack given the high octane offenses present throughout the conference (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech), but Kansas State seems to be the exception heading into this season. If this defense plays up to the level it proved capable of last season, the Wildcats could make a lot of noise in the BIG-12.
The implementation of a BIG-12 championship game is huge, as the conference is now a fight for No. 2 rather than No. 1. If it isn’t an OU/OSU matchup in the BIG-12 title game, you can bet that it’ll be one of the two Oklahoma schools taking on Kansas State for the conference crown on December 2 in Arlington. With so many starters returning on defense, a dynamic returning starter at quarterback like Jesse Ertz, and a very favorable schedule, K-State is capable of winning 10+ games in 2017.
The 2016-2017 offseason cannot come to an end sooner (pun intended) for Oklahoma. First, there was Baker Mayfield’s arrest. Then, came the backlash for the now infamous Joe Mixon punch to a female coed. Bob Stoops then decided to step down as head coach, followed by all three of Oklahoma’s top offensive weapons from 2016 departing early for the NFL Draft (RB Samaje Perine, RB Joe Mixon, WR Dede Westbrook). No matter what way you put it, this offseason has just flat out sucked for Oklahoma fans.
The 2016 season began in disappointment, as the Sooners fell in two of their first three contests to Houston (33-23) and at home against Ohio State (45-24). Oklahoma responded with nine straight conference wins, including Texas (45-40), TCU (52-46), Kansas State (38-17), West Virginia (56-28), and a 38-20 dub over the Pokes in ‘Bedlam’ for the BIG-12 title. The two losses to Houston and Ohio State kept the Sooners out of the playoff, but they ended their season on a positive note with a 35-19 win over Auburn in the Sugar Bowl to finish 11-2 and at No. 5 in the AP.
Now, with the dust of a rather messy offseason finally settled, we can finally get back to talking football. And, while the Sooners may have lost some of their most lethal offensive weapons, they still have Baker Mayfield, who finished third in the 2016 Heisman voting with 3,965 passing yards and 40 touchdowns. Mayfield’s arrest was obviously a bad look, but it looks like he won’t miss any time as OU’s starter and should be ready to go for September 2. We all know by now how good Baker Mayfield is. The question is who is he going to throw to? Senior Jeffrey Mead and senior Kentucky transfer Jeff Badet currently sit atop the OU depth chart with junior Nick Basquine not far behind. There may no longer be a Dede Westbrook present in the Sooner offense, but Badet put up some solid numbers throughout his three seasons at Kentucky (82 catches, 1,385 yards, and seven touchdowns) while buried on the depth chart, so it shouldn’t be a shock if he becomes Mayfield’s go-to guy in an offense that is in desperate need of a No. 1 wideout.
Oklahoma also returns all five starting offensive linemen from 2016, highlighted by redshirt senior center Erick Wren. Getting your starting quarterback to return is one thing, but having all five linemen returning puts the Sooners in business to make a serious run at yet another BIG-12 title and possibly even the CFP. This veteran line will try and pave the way for a pair of sophomore running backs (Abdul Adams, Rodney Anderson) to fill the massive voids left behind by Mixon and Perine. Oklahoma’s run game may not be what it was a year ago with two NFL caliber backs handling the rock, but this offensive line should open up enough holes to keep it a factor.
Senior corner Jordan Thomas and sophomore Jordan Parker highlight an otherwise very inexperienced Oklahoma defense. Senior Steven Parker and junior Will Sunderland figure to man the safety positions while redshirt senior Matt Romar and Neville Gallimore (both DT’s) anchor the front seven. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and Caleb Kelly will man the outside linebacker spots, while competition in camp between underclassmen Jon-Michael Terry, Addison Gumbs, and Kenneth Murray will likely determine the inside linebacker position.
Road trips to Ohio State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State certainly do not favor the Sooners whatsoever. But, this is a program that should never be counted out, even with a new head coach. The BIG-12 is realistically a three-team race in 2017 between OU, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State. We’ll see whether or not Mayfield and the gang have it in them to make a run to the playoff early in the season when they travel to the Horseshoe, but 10 or 11 wins is a pretty realistic expectation to have for Oklahoma in a rather weak BIG-12 despite the tough road slate.
A lot of Oklahoma State fans are still bitter about that controversial 30-27 loss to Central Michigan in week two on a wild Hail Mary as time expired, and they deserve to be. However, despite that brutal farce of a loss to the Chippewas, the Cowboys were still able to control their own destiny in the BIG-12 for almost the entirety of the season, which included wins over Pittsburgh (45-38), Texas (49-31), Iowa State (38-31), Kansas (44-20), West Virginia (37-20), Kansas State (43-37), Texas Tech (45-44), and TCU (31-6). Unfortunately, losses at Baylor (35-24) and at home against Oklahoma (38-20) in ‘Bedlam’ resulted in a second-place finish in the BIG-12. The Cowboys took down Colorado rather handily 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl to end the season at 10-3 and No. 11 in the AP.
In 2017, Oklahoma State returns senior quarterback Mason Rudolph and their top wideout in senior James Washington. This was a pairing that worked a ton of magic last season, connecting 78 times for over 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. Poke fans are hoping for a repeat performance in 2017 from these two, as they will be the obvious nucleus of OSU's offense. Junior Jalen McCleskey and senior Marcell Ateman should also see their reps increased as featured receivers in this offense, as the pair hold a combined 15 total touchdowns during their time in Stillwater.
After leading all freshmen running backs in yards (1,142) last season, Justice Hill returns for his sophomore campaign and will run behind three returning starters on the offensive line (RT Zachary Crabtree, RG Larry Williams, C Brad Lundblade). OSU also added some much-needed depth at left tackle in Cal graduate transfer Aaron Cochran, especially after second-team All-BIG-12 selection Victor Salako’s departure for the NFL. The rushing attack has never and never will be the focal point of Oklahoma State’s offense, but in a conference filled with weak defenses, it helps to have that versatility between a lethal aerial attack and a reliable ground game.
Defensively, both Jarrell Owens and Jordan Brailford are back for 2017, but Brailford is still recovering from an injury and is definitely something to monitor as the season approaches. Junior Darrion Daniels would be the most likely candidate to see an up in playing time if Brailford can’t go against Tulsa on August 31. Senior Chad Whitener enters his third season as OSU’s starting middle linebacker. Junior Justin Phillips, senior Tucker Kirk, and sophomore Calvin Bundage figure to round out OSU’s linebacking corps. The Cowboy secondary is also solid heading into 2017, highlighted by senior safeties Tre Flowers and Ramon Richards. OSU also added Clemson graduate transfer Adrian Baker at cornerback, giving them three experienced guys back there to defend the pass in a conference that features a lot of gun-slinging offenses.
This is my sleeper team to win the BIG-12, especially since the Pokes are getting both Oklahoma and Kansas State at home. I think Mason Rudolph and James Washington put up video game-like numbers together and help lead Oklahoma State to 10 or 11 wins. ‘Bedlam’ comes early this year, as OSU and OU face off in Stillwater on November 4, a game that will in all likelihood decide the fate of the conference and possibly even a spot in the playoff.
The lone highlight of 2016 for Texas came in week one with a 50-47 win over Notre Dame, and then it was all downhill from there. Charlie Strong’s fate was sealed following the 24-21 road loss to Kansas (2-10) and Texas finished the season 5-7 with a 31-9 loss at home to TCU on Black Friday.
Todd Herman now takes over the reigns in Austin, and while the alumni and boosters at UT might have expectations of a BIG-12 title and run to the College Football Playoff, that doesn’t seem all too rational. However, 2017 should serve as a bounce-back season for Texas football. Shane Buechele returns for his sophomore season after a predictable up-and-down freshman campaign. Todd Herman has a history of developing good quarterbacks (Cardale Jones, Braxton Miller, JT Barrett, Greg Ward Jr), so don’t be surprised if and when Shane Buechele starts leading the Longhorns back into relevance.
The loss of starting running back D’Onta Foreman to the NFL hurts, but Texas does have a committee of running backs ready to compete for the starting job. Kyle Porter, Kirk Johnson (returning from injury), and Roderick Bernard (also returning from injury) should all see their fair number of touches. As far as pass-catchers go, tight end Andrew Beck appears to be the nucleus of Texas’ offense heading into the season. The Longhorn wide receiver corps is young, highlighted by a pair of sophomores (Collin Johnson, Devin Duvernay) so it may take a while for this offense to get rolling.
Like the receiving corps, the Longhorn defense is extremely young. However, it is also littered with talent. Senior nose tackle Poona Ford should serve as an anchor on the defensive front while juniors Malik Jefferson, Anthony Wheeler, and Breckyn Hagerman fill the linebacking spots. Juniors Davante Davis and Kris Boyd figure to be the team’s top-two corners while junior DeShon Elliott and sophomore Brandon Jones serve as the last line of defense at safety.
Texas was still able to win five games last season under Charlie Strong, and made a significant upgrade at head coach with Todd Herman, meaning there is really nowhere to go but up from here. It might take a few weeks into the season to get going, and a BIG-12 title seems a little out of reach, but 8-4/7-5 seems pretty reasonable for Texas in 2017.
Much of TCU's inconsistencies last season revolved around the up-and-down play of quarterback Kenny Hill. Despite a handful of gut-punching defeats (Texas Tech, Arkansas, Oklahoma) the Frogs were still able to finish the season 6-6 but fell to Georgia (31-23) in the Liberty Bowl. A season that began with such high hopes of competing for the BIG-12 title ended with a sub-.500 record and a series of question marks involving the future of TCU's defense and the job security of Gary Patterson.
Kenny Hill will need to improve upon his 17/13 touchdown/interception ratio from last season in order for TCU to have any chance in the BIG-12 in 2017. Senior Iowa Western transfer Taj Williams figures to lead the TCU receiving core along with longtime starter and junior KaVontae Turpin, and senior LSU transfer John Diarse. On the ground, the Frogs will need to lean on senior running back Kyle Hicks after Shaun Nixon suffered an undisclosed season-ending injury. The loss of Nixon is a big one as he was a versatile playmaker capable of running routes lined out wide and catching balls out of the backfield. Gary Patterson and company are hoping that sophomore Darius Anderson will be able to step into a similar role, but the void of Nixon will have its effects. The TCU offensive line returns three starters (all seniors) in left tackle Joseph Noteboom, center Austin Schlottman, and right guard Matt Pryor.
Defensively, TCU got overpowered up front last season due to their mismatches in size compared to opposing offensive lines such as Oklahoma and Kansas State. The Horned Frogs will rely on a new wave of pass-rushers and run-stuffers to try and get their defense where it needs to be. Senior Chris Bradley, redshirt freshman Ross Blacklock, and junior Joseph Broadnax will man the defensive tackle spots while sophomore Brandon Bowen, Louisiana-Monroe transfer Ben Banogu, and senior Matt Boesen will set up at the ends. Senior Travin Howard, who's highly regarded as one of the top linebackers in the country, will be the nucleus of TCU's defense after coming off back-to-back 100-tackle seasons. Howard will be joined by junior Montrel Wilson, junior Ty Summers, and redshirt senior Sammy Douglas to form one of the deepest linebacking sets in the BIG-12. TCU also returns a multitude of starters to its secondary, including team interception-leader in 2016 and senior safety Nick Orr. Ranthony Texada and Julius Lewis will both resume their spots as the team's top corners.
TCU has the offensive firepower to compete in the BIG-12, and their defense has some major strong points at linebacker and in the secondary. However, unless the Frogs can improve their pass-rush and ability to stuff the run, 2017 could see a similar fate as the one we saw last season where the Frogs get pushed around on the line of scrimmage. Kenny Hill hasn't lived up to expectations, and he needs to be better this season in order for the Frogs to improve from 6-7. Eight wins is a reasonable expectation, but road dates with Arkansas, Kansas State, and both Oklahoma schools as well as home matchups with Baylor, Texas, and West Virginia make six or seven wins sound more realistic.
Replacing Mahomes under center will be redshirt senior Nic Shimonek. The former transfer from Iowa will finally get his shot after riding behind Mahomes the past two seasons, but let's remember that there was a multitude of reasons behind that, with one being his lack of mobility compared to Mahomes. Granted, few quarterbacks in the country possessed the explosive breakaway speed that Patrick Mahomes did, but comparing Mahomes to Shimonek from a rushing perspective is apples and oranges, so expect a drop off in rush yards from the Red Raider play-callers in 2017. Shimonek's best attribute is his arm strength, and with it, he should thrive in Tech's high-octane passing attack. At receiver, Texas Tech does return three of their top-four pass-catchers from 2016 in junior Keke Coutee, senior Dylan Cantrell, and senior Cameron Batson. Highly touted senior Derrick Willies, who battled injury for much of last season, is expected to be back and at 100%. Even with Jonathan Giles (top wideout from 2016) transferring to LSU, this receiving core is absolutely loaded with talent and make Shimonek's life a little bit easier.
The line and running back positions are the downfalls of Tech's offense. Last season, Mahomes led the team in rushing touchdowns as the Red Raiders had seemingly zero ability to keep opposing defenses honest with the run with an actual running back. Sophomore Da'Leon Ward, who accumulated just 428 yards throughout all of last season as a true freshman, needs to have a big year as the team's top tailback in order for Texas Tech to be any sort of threat in the BIG-12. The Tech offensive line is extremely young and best suited on passing downs so it may be hard for Ward to find many holes to run through.
Head coach Kliff Kingsbury considers linebacker Dakota Allen, a guy who was once caught literally robbing people and kicked off the team, a vocal leader of the defense, which serves as a fitting metaphor as to how criminally bad the Red Raider defense played in 2016 (placed last in the nation in total and scoring defense). Anyways, Allen is back in Lubbock after playing in junior college in 2016 and finishing 2015 as one of Tech's leading tacklers. Also back at linebacker for Texas Tech is sophomore Jordyn Brooks, who recorded 86 tackles a season ago as a true freshman. The defensive line returns two starters in redshirt sophomore Broderick Thomas and sophomore Joe Wallace, but it still remains a massive weak point despite the addition of defensive end Eli Howard, who transferred from North Texas. The Red Raider secondary returns none of its starters from a season ago, but that could be for the better after how poorly the unit played in 2016. It'll be up to a handful of underclassmen, including sophomore nickel Douglas Coleman to try and clean things up on the back end.
Overall, don't expect a lot out of Texas Tech in 2017. This is a program that is coming off one of the worst defensive seasons in the history of the BIG-12 and is years away from competing for the conference crown. If Tech is lucky, they'll win five games this year, but every bit of victory this team had last season was because of Patrick Mahomes, and he's now gone. Without Mahomes, it's more realistic to a predict a drop off in the W/L column than see any type of improvement.
A lot of people slept on West Virginia heading into last season, and the Mountaineers got out to a 6-0 start that included wins over Missouri (26-11), BYU (35-32), and Kansas State (17-16). Despite a 37-20 defeat in Stillwater at the midway point of the season, West Virginia was still in position to control their own destiny in the BIG-12 following back-to-back wins against Kansas (48-21) and at Texas (24-20). But, a lopsided loss at home in the snow to Oklahoma (56-28) put an end to West Virginia’s hopes of winning the conference. The Mountaineers finished the regular season with wins at Iowa State (49-19) and at home against Baylor (24-21) but fell in the Russell Athletic Bowl to Miami (31-14) to finish the year at No. 18 in the AP.
Outside of the tough bowl loss to Miami, many considered 2016 to be a massive success for West Virginia, and one that could have finally put Dana Holgerson over the hump. But, 2017 isn’t going to be any easier for the Mountaineers, especially following the departures of two of their three top wideouts, their entire starting offensive line, their top three pass-rushers, and three of their starters in the secondary.
A big bright spot for West Virginia heading into the 2017 season is the edition of Florida transfer quarterback and redshirt junior, Will Grier. The departure of Skyler Howard means that the starting job is all but Grier’s to lose and he should be able to provide the stability that will keep this offense in rhythm. Another key returnee for the Mountaineers is senior running back Justin Crawford, who rushed for over 1,100 yards in 2016 and figures to be West Virginia’s workhorse with a pair of sophomores (Kennedy McCoy, Martell Pettaway) spelling him.
On defense, West Virginia is going to need their linebackers to play stout to make up for the holes on their line with seniors Al-Rasheed Benson and Xavier Preston leading the way. The only returning starter in the Mountaineer secondary is corner Elijah Battle, so obviously, some second-stringers from last season such as redshirt junior safety Avery Toyous and senior cornerback Mike Daniels are going to need to step up.
Expectations are high for West Virginia headed into 2017, but with the number of holes on their roster, it is going to be hard to improve upon last season’s 10-2 record. 8-4/9-3 in a weak BIG-12 seems pretty reasonable, but winning the BIG-12 and making a push for the CFP might be a bit of a stretch.
Preliminary Predictions1. Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1)
2. Oklahoma State (10-2, 7-2)
3. Kansas State (9-3, 6-3)
4. West Virginia (8-4, 6-3)
5. Texas (7-5, 5-4)
6. Baylor (7-5, 4-5)
7. TCU (6-6, 4-5)
8. Texas Tech (5-7, 3-6)
9. Iowa State (4-8, 2-7)
10. Kansas (2-10, 0-9)
Biggest Conference Games
1. Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State (11/4)
2. Texas vs. Oklahoma (Dallas, 10/14)
3. Kansas State vs. Oklahoma (10/21)
4. Texas vs. Oklahoma State (10/21)
5. West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State (10/28)
6. Texas vs. Kansas State (10/7)
7. Oklahoma vs. West Virginia (10/25)
8. Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State (11/18)
9. Kansas State vs. West Virginia (11/11)
10. West Virginia vs. Texas (11/18)
Biggest Non-Conference Games
1. Oklahoma @ Ohio State (9/9)
2. Texas @ USC (9/16)
3. West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech (Landover, MD, 9/3)
4. Oklahoma State vs. Pittsburgh (9/16)
5. TCU @ Arkansas (9/9)
6. Texas vs. Maryland (9/2)
7. Texas Tech @ Houston (9/23)
8. Baylor @ Duke (9/16)
9. Texas Tech vs. Arizona State (9/16)
10. Kansas State @ Vanderbilt (9/16)
Thursday, July 20, 2017
Hugh Freeze Resigns From Ole Miss After Calling Escort Service From School Phone
Meet the newest edition to the Mount Rushmore of all-time boneheaded moves by college football head coaches. On Thursday, USA-Today was first to report that Hugh Freeze has resigned effective immediately from Ole Miss after school officials found a "pattern" of phone calls allegedly made by Freeze to a female escort service. The calls to the escort service made on Freeze's phone which was provided by the University (AKA his work phone) date all the way back to 2012 (the year he was hired).
Whether or not these phone calls had anything to do with Freeze attempting to hire or having hired escorts for himself, his assistants, or his players remains unknown, but oh my is this a bad look and a damning setback for Ole Miss or what?
Naturally, SEC Twitter had themselves a blast following the release of the news that Hughes was out....
Kyle makes a solid point
The Hugh Freeze signs at College Gameday this season are going to be epic— Kyle Dawson (@ItsKyleDawson) July 21, 2017
So does this guy
Michael Oher is released and Hugh Freeze resigns, both on the same day.— Andrew. #FootballSZN (@LatiNo_Chill) July 20, 2017
Ole Miss is getting blindsided.
!!!!!!!
Houston Nutt is burning the whole building down. And Hugh Freeze?!! Your work phone?! Next time just borrow Chad Kelly's...— Bakari Sellers (@Bakari_Sellers) July 21, 2017
Hate when this happens
Don't you hate it when you're ordering a pizza, and you get an escort service instead? Hugh Freeze is a victim. https://t.co/N5trt8ZGZZ— John U. Bacon (@Johnubacon) July 21, 2017
Pitino is shaking his head somewhere
Hugh Freeze busted for calling an escort service. If Rick Pitino taught us anything, its that you ALWAYS let the assistants make those calls— Aaron Torres (@Aaron_Torres) July 20, 2017
SEC >
Lane Kiffin causing riots at Tennessee. Bobby Petrino's motorcycle. Hugh Freeze today. Nobody does coaching departures quite like the SEC— Aaron Torres (@Aaron_Torres) July 20, 2017
Leo Lewis of Mississippi State had a pretty solid one but deleted it, so here's the basic gist of it
— Clemson Tom (@ClemsonTom) July 21, 2017
Not only is Ole Miss still trying to recover from the Leremy Tunsil disaster which led to a NCAA probe, but the departure of Freeze comes a little more than six weeks before the Rebels kick off their season against Southern Alabama. Should be a fun and awkward as all hell training camp.
It's also being reported that Houston Nutt may have been the one who leaked the information about the phone calls in an absolutely diabolical turn of events. The downfall of Hugh Freeze is probably Nutt's biggest win at Ole Miss. Stay tuned because there is no way this thing is over.
Now, who out there has experience of coaching under all the pressure in the SEC, is currently unemployed, and would be a perfect fit for a program trying to change its culture?
Yeah, I have no clue either. Guys like that don't just come and go from LSU every 10 years or anything.
Wednesday, July 19, 2017
College Football: Players to watch in 2017 (Part 5 of 5)
To help get everyone pumped up for the 2017 college football season, I will be doing a five-part series of posts, each post featuring five players to watch for this fall. Some players on this list are so obvious that you don't need a reminder to watch them, some could be busts, and there will certainly be players outside of these 25 that will have impactful seasons. Also, I must add that the order in which these players are listed is not a ranking system. Without further ado, part five of five:
(Part One)
(Part Two)
(Part Three)
(Part Four)
Iman Marshall
Iman Marshall enters his junior year as one of the nation's top defensive backs on a squad that I firmly believe we'll be seeing in the College Football Playoff. The 6'5" 200 pound cornerback has started 25 games in his two seasons for the Trojans. In 2016, he earned All-Pac 12 honorable mention, which is stellar considering he had 18th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Adoree' Jackson, playing opposite him. It takes a special talent to stand out next to greatness.
Marshall was one of 45 players named to the Jim Thorpe Award watch list, which is the award given to the nation's top defensive back. The same award that Adoree' Jackson took home in 2016. In his sophomore campaign, Marshall recorded 51 total tackles, three interceptions, and eight deflections. The USC defense looks to be a strong corps even aside from Iman Marhsall, with linebackers Cam Smith and Porter Gustin expected to anchor the unit.
USC has high expectations this season, and rightfully so with the depth of talent on both sides of the ball. The Trojans have a pretty awesome out-of-conference schedule, opening up against Western Michigan, hosting the Longhorns in week three, and traveling to South Bend to take on the Irish on Oct. 21. Not to mention the Pac 12's increase in strength this season; USC should be (at least slightly) challenged by Washington State, Utah, and Colorado. But as I said before, I fully expect to see USC in the final four come December.
Nick Bosa
Let me preface this by explaining that my levels of hate in sports have been on the rapid decline as I've gotten older. But that doesn't take away from the fact that I despise Ohio State. I despise their success, and therefore despise Joey Bosa. Since I despise Joey Bosa, I might as well despise his younger brother, Nick Bosa. But the fact that I irrationally despise this kid seemingly does not affect his on-field performance, because his freshman season showed promise of a future NFL star.
Bosa stands at 6 foot 4 and weighs in at 270 pounds. That's a big boy. His ability to beat O-lineman in one-on-one battles is what makes him so good. Bosa recorded 29 tackles, seven tackles for loss, and five sacks. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein has Bosa as the third best edge rusher in college football, only behind BC's Harold Landry and LSU's Arden Key.
I think there's no good argument in existence denying that Nick Bosa will be drafted by an NFL franchise. Has/will his last name assist in getting more recognition? Without a doubt. But that privilege has been given to plenty of guys, the difference is that Nick Bosa is capable of fulfilling the forecast.
Troy Fumagalli
The Badgers' senior tight end has a name that sounds like an ex-boyfriend of Carmela Soprano before she became the wife of the man who ran North Jersey. And on top of that, he didn't need any subpar advice from Jackie Jr. to become a great football player.
I'm a big Badgers guy. The beautiful, happy, hospitable state of Wisconsin served as a fantastic three-year home for me, so to see the Sconnies get riled up on Badger success is something I'm always on board with. The 6'6", 250 pound stallion is great for Wisconsin's offense, as his size allows him to help out the B1G farm boys with blocking up front. But his big hands and wingspan make him a reliable target.
In 2016, Fumagalli caught the ball 47 times for a total of 580 yards and two touchdowns. Fumagalli's journey in Madison has been a glorious one, starting out as a walk-on, and now entering his senior year on the preseason John Mackey Award watchlist for the country's best tight end. In Wisconsin's season opener against LSU at Lambeau, Fumagalli assisted in the victory by racking up 100 yards on seven receptions.
The first half or so of Wisconsin's schedule doesn't propose too many major obstacles, and I genuinely believe they'll be entering their Nov. 18 home matchup against Michigan with a zero in the loss column.
Royce Freeman
Things have gone a little downhill in recent years for the Oregon Ducks, and that problem became even bigger when star wide receiver Darren Carrington II was arrested for a DUI leading to a dismissal from the team. But regardless of all the issues the program is facing, they've got a gift in senior running back Royce Freeman. Freeman is 5'11" and 230 pounds. He's short enough and strong enough to effectively lower the shoulder because he sure as hell brings the velocity to make that impact work in his favor. His breakaway speed also certainly isn't hurting him.
Freeman carried the ball 168 times for 945 total yards (5.6 yards per carry), getting the ball in the end zone niiiiineee tiiiimmess. His rushing numbers were better in his sophomore year, recording 1,836 yards and 17 touchdowns, while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Even his freshman year numbers were better than in 2016, as he ran for 1,365 yards and 18 touchdowns. Freeman's best performance last year was easily his clinic in a week two hosting of Virginia, where averaged 9.9 yards per carry, ran for 207 yards, and scored two touchdowns.
Freeman has proven himself as a legit receiver also, catching the ball 23 times for 144 yards and a touchdown in 2016. In his ridiculous sophomore season he caught the ball 26 times for 348 yards and two touchdowns.
Last season Royce Freeman finished the year as an All-Pac 12 honorable mention, and he enters this season on the Maxwell Award watchlist. If Freeman matches last season's nine touchdowns, he'll become the Ducks' leader in all-time rushing touchdowns. He also needs 936 yards to become the rushing yards leader in school history, so he essentially just needs to match his worst season ever in order to become an Oregon Ducks legend.
Ronnie Harrison
Ronnie Harrison, no not Rodney the two time Super Bowl champ, is the prototypical Alabama defensive player; he's athletic, has great football IQ, and scores on defensive plays. He's the type of player that makes Alabama defenses so fun to watch every year. The 6'3" 216 pound d-back out of Tallahassee, FL is listed by NFL.com as the 25th best player in college football.
Harrison, along with fellow Tide safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, were both named to the preseason Jim Thorpe Award watchlist. The duo of these two is incredible. In 2016, Ronnie Harrison tallied 86 total tackles, which was the second most on the team behind Reuben Foster who had a whomping 115 total tackles. Harrison scored two touchdowns last year, one of which came from an interception and the other from a fumble recovery. The combination of his awareness and playmaking ability is lethal. He also had seven pass deflections on the year.
There's no doubt in my mind that Alabama will roll through the SEC and land a playoff spot, but the main focus for now is the week one showdown with Florida State. I've been so back and forth on who I think will come out on top in that one. I'm currently leaning toward the Seminoles, and that might change a million times until kickoff, but for now I'm taking FSU.
(Part One)
(Part Two)
(Part Three)
(Part Four)
Iman Marshall
Iman Marshall enters his junior year as one of the nation's top defensive backs on a squad that I firmly believe we'll be seeing in the College Football Playoff. The 6'5" 200 pound cornerback has started 25 games in his two seasons for the Trojans. In 2016, he earned All-Pac 12 honorable mention, which is stellar considering he had 18th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Adoree' Jackson, playing opposite him. It takes a special talent to stand out next to greatness.
Marshall was one of 45 players named to the Jim Thorpe Award watch list, which is the award given to the nation's top defensive back. The same award that Adoree' Jackson took home in 2016. In his sophomore campaign, Marshall recorded 51 total tackles, three interceptions, and eight deflections. The USC defense looks to be a strong corps even aside from Iman Marhsall, with linebackers Cam Smith and Porter Gustin expected to anchor the unit.
USC has high expectations this season, and rightfully so with the depth of talent on both sides of the ball. The Trojans have a pretty awesome out-of-conference schedule, opening up against Western Michigan, hosting the Longhorns in week three, and traveling to South Bend to take on the Irish on Oct. 21. Not to mention the Pac 12's increase in strength this season; USC should be (at least slightly) challenged by Washington State, Utah, and Colorado. But as I said before, I fully expect to see USC in the final four come December.
Nick Bosa
Let me preface this by explaining that my levels of hate in sports have been on the rapid decline as I've gotten older. But that doesn't take away from the fact that I despise Ohio State. I despise their success, and therefore despise Joey Bosa. Since I despise Joey Bosa, I might as well despise his younger brother, Nick Bosa. But the fact that I irrationally despise this kid seemingly does not affect his on-field performance, because his freshman season showed promise of a future NFL star.
Bosa stands at 6 foot 4 and weighs in at 270 pounds. That's a big boy. His ability to beat O-lineman in one-on-one battles is what makes him so good. Bosa recorded 29 tackles, seven tackles for loss, and five sacks. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein has Bosa as the third best edge rusher in college football, only behind BC's Harold Landry and LSU's Arden Key.
I think there's no good argument in existence denying that Nick Bosa will be drafted by an NFL franchise. Has/will his last name assist in getting more recognition? Without a doubt. But that privilege has been given to plenty of guys, the difference is that Nick Bosa is capable of fulfilling the forecast.
Troy Fumagalli
The Badgers' senior tight end has a name that sounds like an ex-boyfriend of Carmela Soprano before she became the wife of the man who ran North Jersey. And on top of that, he didn't need any subpar advice from Jackie Jr. to become a great football player.
I'm a big Badgers guy. The beautiful, happy, hospitable state of Wisconsin served as a fantastic three-year home for me, so to see the Sconnies get riled up on Badger success is something I'm always on board with. The 6'6", 250 pound stallion is great for Wisconsin's offense, as his size allows him to help out the B1G farm boys with blocking up front. But his big hands and wingspan make him a reliable target.
In 2016, Fumagalli caught the ball 47 times for a total of 580 yards and two touchdowns. Fumagalli's journey in Madison has been a glorious one, starting out as a walk-on, and now entering his senior year on the preseason John Mackey Award watchlist for the country's best tight end. In Wisconsin's season opener against LSU at Lambeau, Fumagalli assisted in the victory by racking up 100 yards on seven receptions.
The first half or so of Wisconsin's schedule doesn't propose too many major obstacles, and I genuinely believe they'll be entering their Nov. 18 home matchup against Michigan with a zero in the loss column.
Royce Freeman
Things have gone a little downhill in recent years for the Oregon Ducks, and that problem became even bigger when star wide receiver Darren Carrington II was arrested for a DUI leading to a dismissal from the team. But regardless of all the issues the program is facing, they've got a gift in senior running back Royce Freeman. Freeman is 5'11" and 230 pounds. He's short enough and strong enough to effectively lower the shoulder because he sure as hell brings the velocity to make that impact work in his favor. His breakaway speed also certainly isn't hurting him.
Freeman carried the ball 168 times for 945 total yards (5.6 yards per carry), getting the ball in the end zone niiiiineee tiiiimmess. His rushing numbers were better in his sophomore year, recording 1,836 yards and 17 touchdowns, while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Even his freshman year numbers were better than in 2016, as he ran for 1,365 yards and 18 touchdowns. Freeman's best performance last year was easily his clinic in a week two hosting of Virginia, where averaged 9.9 yards per carry, ran for 207 yards, and scored two touchdowns.
Freeman has proven himself as a legit receiver also, catching the ball 23 times for 144 yards and a touchdown in 2016. In his ridiculous sophomore season he caught the ball 26 times for 348 yards and two touchdowns.
Last season Royce Freeman finished the year as an All-Pac 12 honorable mention, and he enters this season on the Maxwell Award watchlist. If Freeman matches last season's nine touchdowns, he'll become the Ducks' leader in all-time rushing touchdowns. He also needs 936 yards to become the rushing yards leader in school history, so he essentially just needs to match his worst season ever in order to become an Oregon Ducks legend.
Ronnie Harrison
Ronnie Harrison, no not Rodney the two time Super Bowl champ, is the prototypical Alabama defensive player; he's athletic, has great football IQ, and scores on defensive plays. He's the type of player that makes Alabama defenses so fun to watch every year. The 6'3" 216 pound d-back out of Tallahassee, FL is listed by NFL.com as the 25th best player in college football.
Harrison, along with fellow Tide safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, were both named to the preseason Jim Thorpe Award watchlist. The duo of these two is incredible. In 2016, Ronnie Harrison tallied 86 total tackles, which was the second most on the team behind Reuben Foster who had a whomping 115 total tackles. Harrison scored two touchdowns last year, one of which came from an interception and the other from a fumble recovery. The combination of his awareness and playmaking ability is lethal. He also had seven pass deflections on the year.
There's no doubt in my mind that Alabama will roll through the SEC and land a playoff spot, but the main focus for now is the week one showdown with Florida State. I've been so back and forth on who I think will come out on top in that one. I'm currently leaning toward the Seminoles, and that might change a million times until kickoff, but for now I'm taking FSU.
Tuesday, July 18, 2017
College Football: 2017 PAC-12 Preview, Storylines, Teams to Watch
Despite Stanford, UCLA, and Oregon taking a significant step back, the PAC-12 still sent five teams (USC, Washington State, Stanford, Utah, Colorado) to a bowl game in 2016 and one of its members to the College Football Playoff (Washington). The conference went 3-3 during bowl season with USC winning in Pasadena, Stanford in El Paso, and Utah in Santa Clara. Obviously, the goal is to get more than half of your conference to a postseason game and to do better than .500 as a conference during bowl mania. In 2017, the PAC-12 has a number of teams looking to stay atop the conference and compete for a spot in the playoff, while a handful of others (Oregon, UCLA, Cal) will try and claw their ways back into relevance.
Team-By-Team Breakdown, Key Players
The 2016 season was 99% a failure for the Arizona Wildcats. The only reason why it was not a total disaster is because the Wildcats spoiled archrival Arizona State's bowl hopes with a 56-35 win in the final week of the regular season for their lone conference victory. Arizona finished the season 3-9 and dead last in the PAC-12 South. Obviously, 2017 serves as a massive season for head coach Rich Rodriguez, who's currently riding the hot seat despite leading the Wildcats to a bowl game in each of his first three seasons at the helm including the 2014 Fiesta Bowl.
Arizona's passing offense was a mess last season. Brandon Dawkins and Jordan Tate are both returning and should battle for the starting quarterback job, but throwing the ball isn't the strong suit of either of them. At running back, the Wildcats return sophomore J.J. Taylor and senior Nick Wilson, and both should serve as a solid one-two punch. Taylor and Wilson will run behind a strong offensive line with three returning starters in left tackle Layth Friekh, left guard Gerhard de Beer and right guard Jacob Alsedek (all seniors). Arizona's offense is very much reliant on the run, but in a conference like the PAC-12 with so many prolific passing attacks (USC, Washington, Washington State), simply running the ball is not enough to have success. The Wildcats will have a solid base with their rushing attack, but the ceiling for this offense is extremely low if neither Dawkins or Tate can step up and take the Arizona passing game to the level it needs to be in order to win multiple conference games. Junior Shun Brown is the only returning starter at receiver so developing a reliable passing attack is going to be extremely difficult.
Defensively, Arizona is going to have to rely on the experience of its secondary to make up for a surplus of holes up front. The Wildcats return cornerbacks Dane Cruikshank and Jace Whittaker as well as both starting safeties in junior Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles and sophomore Isaiah Hayes. The front seven, meanwhile, is littered with question marks. Senior defensive tackle Parker Zellers and sophomore defensive end Justin Belknap return but their size disadvantages (both under 250 Ibs) significantly limit their capabilities on plugging up the run and rushing the pass. Outside of Zellers and Belknap, the Wildcats return no other starters to their defensive front, leaving the bulk of the workload on the shoulders of shaky recruiting class and junior college transfer Taufahema Sione. This could get ugly.
Overall, Arizona is not a significant threat to USC and Colorado in the PAC-12 South. There are too many holes on this defense and questions at the quarterback position to consider the Wildcats a contender. Four wins should be the ceiling for U of A in 2017.
The Sun Devils completed imploded following a 4-0 start last season, losing seven of their final eight games including a terrible 56-35 loss at rival Arizona in the final week of the regular season to keep them out of a bowl game. The obvious goal for this season is to get back to bowl eligibility, but a brutal conference schedule against USC, Utah, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Colorado will make that task extremely difficult.
Quarterback Manny Wilkins returns for his junior season, but it appears as if Alabama transfer Blake Barnett is making a significant push and could actually be the team's starter under center to begin the season. Running backs Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage are both back, as is wideout N'Keal Harry who broke the ASU record for most receptions by a freshman in 2016. The offensive line of Arizona State is extremely young, however, and returns just one starter from last season, making it a massive area of concern.
Senior Safety Marcus Ball is ASU's lone returning starter in their secondary. Ball will have to guide a duo of freshmen in safety Ty Thomas and cornerback Chase Lucas. Fellow safety Armand Perry has left the team and former No. 1 corner Kareem Orr transferred, meaning Thomas and Lucas will both likely be seeing some significant playing time. The linebacking corps will be the nucleus of ASU's defense with senior SAM D.J. Calhoun, redshirt junior WILL Christian Sam, and senior SPUR J'Marcus Rhodes all back. The line will be anchored by senior defensive tackle Tashon Smallwood and junior defensive end Joseph "Jojo" Wicker.
Arizona State's offense should make some big improvements from last season but it's difficult seeing this team win more than five games with such a grueling conference schedule and so many holes in the secondary. Can ASU get back to a bowl game? Of course. Matchups against UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, Texas Tech, San Diego State, and New Mexico State are all very winnable. But, competing for a PAC-12 South title is likely a year or two away for this program.
New head coach Justin Wilcox has his work cut out for him with Cal coming off a 5-7 season that saw a 1-5 record against the PAC-12 North in 2016. Wilcox and the Bears face a tough non-conference slate (@ UNC, Ole Miss) and have an extremely tough conference schedule beginning with a September 23 date with USC followed by matchups with Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Washington State, and Colorado.
The biggest question entering summer camp is at quarterback, as neither junior Chase Forest or sophomore Ross Bowers was able to pull away with the starting job during spring ball. At running back, the Bears return a pair of seniors in Tre Watson and Vic Enwere. Watson's speed and versatility complement the power-style of Enwere, and both should be significant factors in Cal's offense this season as a solid one-two punch. Sophomore Demetris Robertston and slot man/tight end Ray Hudson highlight an experienced and deep set of receivers for either Forest or Bowers to throw to. The offensive line is a big problem, however, as Cal returns just one starter from last season in redshirt junior center Addison Ooms.
On defense, the Bears will make a switch to a 3-4 after allowing 40+ points nine times last season, ranking second-worst in total defense in the PAC-12. Cal's defensive front is young but does have an anchor to lean on in senior All-Conference Honorable Mention defensive end James Looney. Senior linebackers Devante Downs and Raymond Davidson are both back, but it remains to be seen how this duo will adjust under the new formations and overall defensive realignment. In the secondary, Cal returns a pair of experienced corners in redshirt senior Darrius Allensworth and senior Marloshawn Franklin. At safety, sophomore Evan Rambo appears to be ready to go after recovering from an ACL tear that ended his 2016 season. Rambo is currently listed as the No. 1 free safety on the depth chart, while a pair of redshirt juniors in Quentin Tartabull and Derron Brown battle for the starting strong safety spot.
Between Demetris Robertson and the running back duo of Watson and Enwere, Cal's offense should be solid enough to stay in games, and their defense has its standouts with Downs, Davidson, Allensworth, and Franklin. But, collectively, this is a program that is about a year or two away from really being able to compete with Stanford and the two Washington schools for a North Division crown. Improvements may not show up in the win/loss columns in 2017 for Cal, as their schedule both in and outside of the PAC-12 is extremely tough.
Things quickly went South for Jim Mora's Bruins in 2016 after quarterback Josh Rosen went down with a season-ending shoulder injury against Arizona State. Following Rosen's injury, UCLA fell in six of their final seven to finish the season 4-8 and miss out on a bowl game for the first time in Mora's tenure. With Rosen back and presumably healthy, UCLA should see improvement in 2017 as Jim Mora fights for his job and looks to avoid a second straight sub-.500 season.
UCLA returns its entire set of running backs from last season in junior Soso Jamabo, senior Nate Starks, and junior Bolu Olorunfunmi, giving Rosen a reliable rushing attack to fall back on. Center Scott Quessenberry returns for his senior season after taking home All PAC-12 honors in 2016. Quessenberry will need to be the anchor of a UCLA offensive line that collectively struggled in all areas last season. Senior Darren Andrews highlights a receiving corps that is otherwise extremely young and inexperienced. Junior Jordan Lasley and senior Eldridge Massington will battle with redshirt freshman Demetric Felton and sophomore Theo Howard for the final two starting receiver spots.
Defensively, UCLA lost three massive pieces with the departures of Takkarist McKinley, Fabien Monroe, and Jayon Brown to the NFL. Versatile senior Jacob Tuioti-Mariner will anchor the defensive front and will likely see time both at end and in the middle depending on the opposition's alignment. Redshirt sophomore Keisean Lucier-South, freshman Jaelen Phillips and sophomore Rick Wade will all battle for the two starting defensive end spots. Senior Kenny Young will anchor an otherwise young linebacking core. UCLA's secondary is also young with freshman Darney Holmes currently sitting atop the depth chart as the team's top corner.
The fate of UCLA's season relies on the health of Josh Rosen, and in order to ensure that Rosen doesn't have another season-ending shoulder injury, the Bruin offensive line has to hold up its end and protect him. UCLA's defense as a whole is young but they have enough experienced pieces (Young, Tuioti-Mariner) to duplicate their No. 3 ranked unit in the PAC-12 from last season if their underclassmen (Lucier-South, Phillips, Holmes) play up to their capabilities. Expect an improvement record-wise for UCLA in 2017 at or around bowl eligibility, but anything beyond that seems like a bit of a stretch.
2016 put Colorado football back on the map following a decade of mediocrity, as the Buffaloes rattled off six straight to finish the regular season 10-2 and earned their first ever PAC-12 South title. The dream season came to a tough end, however, in the form of back-to-back lopsided losses to Washington (41-10) in the PAC-12 title game, and Oklahoma State (38-8) in the Alamo Bowl. Despite the two tough losses to finish the season and the departure of their long-time starting quarterback Sefo Liufau, Colorado enters 2017 with high expectations and the goal of repeating in the PAC-12 South.
Taking over under center for the Buffs in 2017 will be redshirt sophomore Steven Montez, who saw a decent amount of playing time last season when he started in three games (2-1 record) in place of an injured Sefo Liufau, tossing nine touchdown passes in just 140 passing attempts. Montez will have a full arsenal of receivers to work with that includes seniors Shay Fields, Bryce Bobo, Devin Ross. and junior slot man Jay MacIntyre. The Buffs will also be getting back redshirt junior receiver Juwanne Winfree, who was described as the best all-around wideout on the team heading into last season before a torn ACL forced him to miss all of 2016 At running back, the Buffaloes return arguably the best ball carrier in the entire conference in senior Phillip Lindsay (1,745 yards, 16 touchdowns in 2016). The Colorado offensive line returns four of its five starters from 2016, highlighted by senior left tackle Jeromy Irwin.
Defensively, Colorado will need to retool a ton after losing eight of their starters from 2016. Redshirt junior Rick Gamboa is back to anchor the linebacking core in the middle. Gamboa will line up in the 3-4 alongside senior outside linebacker Derek McCartney, junior inside linebacker Drew Lewis, and senior BUFF Ryan Moeller. McCartney is returning from a season-ending ACL tear last September while Moeller will try and build upon his 39 solo tackles and one forced fumble from 2016. Senior defensive end Leo Jackson III is back atop the depth chart and will anchor the defensive line after being bumped down to second string a season ago. Senior safety Afolabi Laguda is the lone returning starter in the secondary. Junior Nick Fisher is currently the only strong safety listed on the team's depth chart while redshirt freshman Trey Udoffia, sophomore Dante Wigley, junior Isaiah Oliver, and sophomore Tony Julimisse battle for the two starting cornerback spots.
Overall, there's a lot to like with this Colorado team heading into the 2017 season. The offense should be just as potent as it was last season with all of the starting wideouts, four of the five starting linemen, and a lethal running back in Phillip Lindsay all back. Yes, Steven Montez has only seen a limited amount of playing time, but there is a lot of upside with his arm and ability to make plays with his legs. The defense might be an issue having to replace so many starters, but the Buffaloes seem to have a strong set of underclassmen/2016 second stringers ready to step in and contribute mightily. A September 23 meeting with PAC-12 North favorite Washington will be a testament as to whether or not the Buffs are going to be able to compete with USC for the South crown.
The days of Oregon making a mockery of the PAC-12 North are on hold for now following a 4-8 season in 2016 and the firing of Mark Helfrich. But, the Ducks are hopeful that newly hired head coach Willie Taggart will be able to put things together and get the program back to a bowl game this season. The Ducks return a multitude of their offense from last season, several defensive starters, and had a massive pickup on their defensive front, so there's a lot for Duck fans to feel positive about.
Quarterback Justin Herbert is back after taking over the starting job midway through last season. Also back is starting running back “Rolls” Royce Freeman and backup Tony Brooks-James. Freeman and Brooks-James will run behind an offensive line that returns four starters. Unfortunately, the Ducks will be without two of their top pass catchers after Darren Carrington's dismissal (DUI arrest) and Devon Allen giving up football to concentrate on track. Senior Charles Nelson is going to have to pick up the slack as the team's new No. 1 receiver. The offensive line also returns four starters.
Clemson graduate transfer defensive tackle Scott Pagano is expected to serve as Oregon's defensive anchor, and he should add a level of pass-rushing/run-stuffing that the Ducks lacked significantly in 2016. Seniors Jimmy Swain and A.J. Hotchkins figure to highlight the linebacking core while junior Jalen Jelks and senior Henry Mondeaux man the ends. The spring game taught us that Oregon's secondary is extremely young, as redshirt freshman Brady Breeze started at safety and true freshman Thomas Graham junior served as the team's No. 1 corner. The Ducks did away with defensive coordinator Brady Hoke along with the firing of Helfrich. Jim Leavitt comes over to Eugene from Colorado after revamping their defense and making it one of the PAC-12's best in 2016 alongside Washington. Leavitt has shown before that he can turn a pile of bricks into a house, and with an NFL caliber player like Pagano as his main brick, the task of rebuilding this defense and helping Oregon get back on the map is off to a strong start. Unfortunately, a weak and young secondary could be this defense's downfall in year one under Taggart/Leavitt.
Expect Oregon to hang around in the PAC-12 North this season and win six or seven games. The Ducks do get Washington State and Utah at home but face the daunting tasks of traveling to both Washington and Stanford. With the number of weapons Oregon returns on offense, a bounce back is imminent. However, expecting a divisional title or anything more than simply getting back to a bowl game seems rather unreasonable for a program that just fired its coach, had two of their top wideouts abruptly depart, as well as being in the process of completely rebuilding the defense.
It's been a tough couple of years for Oregon State with their last bowl appearance coming in 2013 (Hawaii Bowl). Gary Anderson and his staff are in the midst of a massive rebuild and improvements are being made, but it still might be a year or two until the Beavers are ready to take the next step and compete for the PAC-12 North title.
OSU returns two quarterbacks from last season's team (Marcus McMaryion, Darrell Garretson), but the No. 1 quarterback on the depth chart currently is '6"6 junior college transfer Jake Luton. Obviously, Anderson and his staff see that the ceiling with Luton under center is a lot higher given his size and arm strength. Luton will still need to compete with McMaryion and Garretson in camp in order to stay atop the depth chart, but as long as he stays healthy and remains on the good side of OC Kevin McGiven, he should be the signal caller against Colorado State on August 26. Redshirt junior running back Ryan Nall (951 yards, 13 touchdowns in 2016) should serve as the offense's nucleus with his versatile skill set and ability to plow through defenders. The Beavers also swiped Oregon transfer Thomas Tyner to add some depth at the running back position. Senior Jordan Villamin figures to take over as Oregon State's top wideout with his '6"5, 220 Ibs frame following the departure of Victor Bolden. Outside of Villamin, the Beavers have a lot of injury concerns in their pass-catching corps. Tight end Noah Togiai is eying a return from a torn ACL and wideout Seth Collins was forced to miss the final two games of last season after being hospitalized with an unknown illness. If both can return healthy, it'll be a massive boost to the OSU offense. The offensive line returns just two starters, so obviously that will need to sort itself out in camp in order for Luton to stay somewhat safe in the pocket and for Nall/Tyner to contribute effectively on the ground.
The front seven will serve as the strength of Oregon State's defense, led by senior ends Phillip Napoleon and Baker Pritchard. The addition of junior college transfer and nose tackle Craig Evans gives the line some much-needed depth alongside sophomore tackle Elu Aydon. Senior Manase Hungalu and junior Bright Ugwoegbu will highlight a rugged and deep group of linebackers. Sophomore ILB Andrzej Hughes-Murray and junior OLB Jonathan Willis figure to round out the 3-4. Redshirt sophomore cornerback Xavier Crawford will be leaned on heavily in the OSU secondary after winning Freshman All-American in 2016. The rest of the Beaver secondary consists of a multitude of freshmen, as Gary Anderson signed seven defensive back recruits in the class of 2017 including the highly touted David Morris.
Oregon State's front seven is experienced and powerful, and their offense returns a significant number of weapons (Villamin, Nall). Unfortunately, OSU's schedule in 2017 does them absolutely zero favors having to face the top tier of the conference (Washington, Washington State, USC, Colorado, Stanford) in consecutive weeks to open up PAC-12 play. Oregon State's final four PAC-12 games against Arizona, ASU, Cal, and Oregon are all winnable, but it is hard seeing this team earn a conference win until at least early November with this brutal slate in September/October. Five wins max.
Sam Darnold had one hell of a coming out party in the Rose Bowl, guiding USC to a 52-49 comeback victory over Penn State in an all-time classic of a game. However, following a 1-3 start that included a 52-6 beatdown at the hands of Alabama at AT&T Stadium, a 27-10 loss at Stanford, and a last-second 31-27 loss at Utah, most of the Trojan faithful would have called you crazy for thinking there was any hope of a Rose Bowl win in 2016. Well, an eight-game win streak to end the season paved the way for USC to jump back in the top-25, and Washington crashing the College Football Playoff party as well as Stanford falling off the map opened the door for the Trojans to head to Pasadena. Darnold made the most of the opportunity and delivered a 453-yard/five-touchdown effort to guide USC to victory in what appeared to be a lost season in September.
Following Darnold’s masterful late performance in the Rose Bowl, expectations for USC in 2017 are as high as they were during the Pete Carroll days. Losing wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers hurts, as the duo was responsible for nearly half (41%) or USC’s receptions in 2016, as well as 45% of their total receiving yards. Junior Deontay Burnett, sophomore Michael Pittman, and redshirt senior Steven Mitchell are currently atop the depth chart. Burnett’s three-touchdown effort in the Rose Bowl showed that there is a lot of potential between him and Darnold in 2017. Ronald Jones rushed for over 1,000 yards and had 12 touchdowns last season and is now the feature back for the Trojans as he heads into his junior season. The Trojans return two starting offensive linemen in senior center Nico Falah and senior right guard Viane Talamaivao, but lost both of their starting tackles, so defending the perimeter pass-rush is going to be a challenge. Junior Chuma Edoga figures to take the left tackle spot while redshirt freshman Nate Smith and redshirt sophomore Clayton Johnson battle for the starting right tackle spot.
Defensively, the Trojans obviously want to make some significant improvements after allowing 49 points in the Rose Bowl. But, the Trojan defense did have several bright spots last season including holding Washington to just 13 points in a 26-13 upset late in the year and finished the season ranked third in the PAC-12 in total defense. USC’s linebacking core will be their strength, highlighted by junior Cameron Smith, junior Porter Gustin, and senior Uchenna Nwosu (all returning starters). The defensive front of USC, meanwhile, is extremely inexperienced following the departure of tackle Stevie Tu’ikolovatu. Junior Jacob Daniel figures to be Tu’ikolovatu’s replacement at the nose, while junior Rasheem Green and redshirt sophomore Christian Rector man the ends. USC’s secondary lost a big piece with the departure of Adoree’ Jackson, who took home the Jim Thorpe Award (nation’s best cornerback) in 2016. Outside of Jackson, however, the Trojans still have a lot of starters returning in the secondary, including junior corner Iman Marshall, junior corner Isaiah Langley, redshirt senior safety Chris Hawkins, and junior free safety Marvell Tell.
This is a huge year for USC football, especially following the bowl ban resulting from the Reggie Bush “pay for play” fallout. Winning the Rose Bowl was step one. Now, the Trojans must take the next step and win the PAC-12 (normally that’s what gets you to the Rose Bowl but thus was not the case with USC last season) and crack the College Football Playoff. Sam Darnold showed the world that he has that clutch gene, and if he opts to leave school following the 2017 season, he’ll likely be a top-five pick in the 2018 draft. USC benefits from not having to play Washington, who along with Stanford and Washington State are the four realistic CFP contenders in the PAC-12. The Trojans will host Stanford and Texas in back-to-back weeks in September, but will then play back-to-back road games against Cal and Washington State. Outside of those four games, there aren’t many dates to circle on the calendar. Obviously, the Notre Dame and UCLA rivalry matches are big ones but both of those schools are coming off a down year. USC has 11-win/undefeated potential if they can get out of September 4-0.
In 2016, Stanford was exposed pretty early in the season in the form of back-to-back lopsided losses at Washington (44-6) and at home against Washinton State (42-16). With their College Football Playoff hopes basically gone after dropping from the rankings completely, the Cardinal won seven of their final eight games including a 25-23 win over North Carolina in the Sun Bowl without Christian McCaffery (resting for the draft) to finish the season 10-3 and at No. 12 in the AP. Anytime you lose a versatile playmaking savage at running back like Christian McCaffery, it’s going to have its effects. The Stanford Cardinal enter 2017 with the hopes of competing for the PAC-12 North title, but winning the PAC-12 and earning a spot in the Rose Bowl/CFP also are not out of reach.
Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst are going to battle for the starting quarterback job, but the aerial attack has never been Stanford’s bread and butter (alright, maybe it was with Andrew Luck). Stanford always has and always will be a power-running team, and the heart and soul of their offense in 2017 will be junior running back Bryce Love (779 yards, three touchdowns) who performed up to task as the spell back in 2016 whenever McCaffrey needed a breather. Another strong suit of this offense is the return of four of the five starting offensive linemen (LT David Bright, C Jesse Burkett, RG Nick Wilson, RT A.T. Hall) from last season. Whether it’s Love, Trevor Speights, Cameron Scarlett. or Dorian Maddox running between the trenches on a given play, they’ll have an experienced group of blockers guiding them.
The receiver position is often one that gets dismissed at Stanford due to how paramount their running game is, but juniors Trent Irwin and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside figure to be the top-two Cardinal pass-catchers in 2017 after they each put up solid numbers as sophomores in 2016. Irwin should make a massive impact on special teams and be Stanford’s go-to guy when they need to move the chains thanks to his strengths as a possession receiver. Arcega-Whiteside, meanwhile, should be Stanford’s biggest red zone threat thanks to his size (6’3,” 215) and ability to go up and make a play on the fade route. Look no further than his game-winning grab at UCLA last season.
The PAC-12 North will be a dogfight with Stanford’s rushing attack and Washington and Washinton State getting back Jake Browning and Luke Falk. Stanford’s defense is going to need to step up big in 2017 following the departure of star defensive end Solomon Thomas (No. 3 overall pick by San Francisco). Senior defensive tackle Harrison Phillips (led the team in sacks last season with 6.5) and junior defensive end Dylan Jackson figure to be Stanford’s top pass-rushers. The strongest aspect of Stanford’s defense, however, will be their set of linebackers (all seniors) in Joey Alfieri, Bobby Akereke, Kevin Palma, and Peter Kalambayi. Alfieri should lead the team in tackles while Akereke and Palma are rotated all over thanks to their versatility as pass-rushers and cover guys. This group should serve as Stanford’s backbone. The Cardinal secondary returns two starters from last season in senior free safety Brandon Simmons and senior corner Alijah Holder.
We will get a good feel as to whether or not Stanford is suited to climb back atop the PAC-12 North early in the season when they travel to USC. Back-to-back games against Washinton and Washington State to begin November will likely decide the fate of their season. Nine or ten wins seems like a reasonable prediction but do not be surprised if it’s more.
Maybe the biggest surprise of last season was how good the Washington Huskies were. The Husky defense was absolutely dominant in 2016, holding every one of their opponents to 28 points or fewer. Washington began the season 9-0, including a 44-6 melting of Stanford in primetime. The Huskies’ lone regular season defeat came to a hot group of Trojans from USC (26-13) on November 9, but Washington responded with wins over Arizona State (44-18) and rival Washinton State (45-17) to win the PAC-12 North climb back in the top-four of the rankings. A 41-10 beatdown of Colorado in the PAC-12 title game earned Washington the conference title and their first-ever trip to the College Football Playoff. The Huskies gave Alabama everything they had but ultimately came up short, falling 24-7.
Losing top wideout John Ross to the NFL is obviously not ideal, but the Huskies do return versatile playmaker Dante Pettis, who proved to be an extremely useful weapon both as a pass catcher and on special teams last season. Quarterback Jake Browning looks to build upon a solid output as a sophomore in 2016 (3,430 yards, 43 touchdowns) and could make a case for the Heisman. At running back, the Huskies return junior Myles Gaskin, who’s coming off back-to-back 1,300-yard seasons. Gaskin will run behind an experienced offensive line highlighted by returning starters Coleman Shelton (senior center). Andrew Kirkland (senior right tackle), and Trey Adams (junior left tackle). The line has some obvious holes to fill at left tackle and left guard, but Chris Peterson proved last year that his staff is more than capable of getting underclassmen prepared to step right in.
On defense, the Huskies have a lot of holes to fill following the departures of safety Budda Baker, defensive tackle Elijah Qualls, and corners Sidney Jones and Kevin King. The secondary is not going to be the dominant force we saw in 2016, as the Huskies ranked No. 12 in the nation in total defense and No. 8 in scoring, but Peterson and the coaching staff are extremely high on their set of replacements (junior safety Jojo McIntosh, sophomore safety Taylor Rapp, freshman corner Byron Murphy, and junior corner Jordan Miller). The front-seven will be the strength of Washington’s defense this season, highlighted by senior inside linebacker Azeem Victor.
Washington’s non-conference schedule (@ Rutgers, home vs. Montana and Fresno State) is nothing to call home about. The Huskies do not have to play USC this season but do have to travel to Stanford in November. Getting Washington State, Oregon, and Cal all at home, however, is huge. Washington’s defense was the main reason for their dominance in 2016, and a drop-off is to be expected this season. However, the Huskies return a significant portion of their defensive front, a solid all-around quarterback, as well as a dependable offensive line and running game. This is a team that will contend with Stanford for the PAC-12 North crown and quietly compete for another trip to the playoff. Set the +/- at 10 wins.
The Cougars were a nice story of vindication last season after starting the year 0-2 including an abysmal loss to FCS opponent Eastern Washington in their season-opener at home. Washington State rattled off eight straight following the 0-2 start, including wins over Oregon (51-33), UCLA (27-21), a murdering of Arizona (69-7), and at Stanford (42-16). Late season losses at Colorado and at home against Washington kept the Cougars out of the PAC-12 title game, and they fell 17-12 to Minnesota in the Holiday Bowl.
In 2017, quarterback Luke Falk (4,468 yards, 38 touchdowns in 2016) returns for his senior season, and with Mike Leach’s pass-heavy offense, the Cougars should continue to thrive in a conference full of weak pass-covering defenses (Oregon State, Arizona, Utah). Wideouts Tavares Martin (junior), Kyle Sweet (junior), and Robert Lewis (redshirt senior) should put up some monstrous numbers.
The Cougs did extremely well on the ground in 2016, as their trio of Gerard Wicks, Jamal Morrow, and James Williams combined for 1,645 yards and 22 touchdowns altogether. All three return in 2017 and Washington State will also be getting back Keith Harrington, who missed all of 2016 due to injury. Washington State’s bread and butter might be their air raid passing attack, but their surplus of highly skilled running backs allow them the versatility on offense that is always ever so useful. The Cougars also return 2016 All-American left guard Cody O’Connell, as well as two other starting offensive linemen.
On defense, Washington State’s strength will be their core of linebackers in senior Peyton Pelluer, senior Frankie Luvu, and senior Isaac Dotson. However, Pelluer and company have a lot of pressure on their shoulders as the Cougars return none of their starters on the defensive line from a season ago. In the secondary, Washington State will return a trio of experienced corners in senior Marcellus Pippins, sophomore Marcus Strong, and junior Darrien Molton. Senior free safety Robert Taylor and sophomore strong safety Jalen Thompson emerged as playmaking ball-hawk safeties for Washington State a season ago, and both should continue to do so in 2017.
If there was ever a PAC-12 team to be high on in 2017 not named Stanford, Washington, or USC, it’s Washington State. This team is absolutely loaded with talent on offense and returns one of the top quarterbacks in the country to their offense. The Cougar defense has its holes up front but as does every team. Washington is the clear No. 1 team in the PAC-12 North but Washington State isn’t far behind, and the fate of the division could be decided when those two face off on November 25. We’ll find out whether or not this Washington State team is for real early on in the season with a week-two date with Boise State and a week-five date with USC (both in Pullman).
Preliminary PredictionsNorth
1. Washington (11-1, 8-1)
2. Stanford (10-2, 7-2)
3. Washington State (8-4, 5-4)
4. Oregon (7-5, 4-5)
5. Oregon State (5-7, 2-7)
6. California (3-9, 2-7)
South
1. USC (11-1, 8-1)
2. Colorado (9-3, 6-3)
3. Utah (7-5, 5-4)
4. UCLA (6-6, 4-5)
5. Arizona State (5-7, 2-7)
6. Arizona (3-9, 1-8)
Biggest Conference Games
1. USC vs. Stanford (9/9)
2. Stanford vs. Washington (11/10)
3. Washington vs. Washington State (11/25)
4. Washington State vs. Stanford (11/4)
5. Colorado vs. Washington (9/23)
6. Washington State vs. USC (9/29)
7. Colorado vs. USC (11/11)
8. USC vs. Utah (10/14)
9. Utah vs. Colorado (11/25)
10. Stanford vs. Oregon (10/14)
Biggest Non-Conference Games
1. USC vs. Texas (9/16)
2. Washington State vs. Boise State (9/9)
3. Utah @ BYU (9/9)
4. USC @ Notre Dame (10/21)
5. Oregon vs. Nebraska (9/9)
6. UCLA vs. Texas A&M (9/2)
7. Stanford vs. Notre Dame (11/25)
8. Arizona State @ Texas Tech (9/16)
9. Arizona vs. Houston (9/9)
10. Colorado vs. Colorado State (9/2)
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