Sunday, May 21, 2017

I am DONE with Drew Pomeranz

Okay, not exactly an earth-shattering taek, but it bears repeating.

I missed most of the Red Sox game yesterday, but caught a few of the middle innings on the radio. Must've been the fifth inning when I tuned in, and surprise, surprise, Drew Pomeranz was already done after four.

Pomeranz has pitched into the seventh inning exactly once in his eight starts this season, way back on April 11. He failed to record an out in said seventh inning.

Again, none of this is newsworthy per se. Call it revisionist history all you want...but what exactly did Dave Dombrowski see in Drew Pomeranz? Almost a year later, we're waiting to see for ourselves.

There's a reason the Red Sox are Pomeranz's fifth organization since being drafted fifth overall in 2010. There's a reason his original team, the Cleveland Indians, dealt him little more than a year later to the Rockies. There's a reason Colorado, where pitching might as well be synonymous with the Loch Ness Monster, gave up on him after two-plus years at Coors Field. There's a reason Oakland, who acquired Pomeranz in December 2013, sent him packing two years later.

And there's sure as hell a reason the San Diego Padres, who don't exactly have the payroll of their southern California counterparts, who have had just four starting pitchers make the All-Star team since 2000, who had Pomeranz under a reasonable contract through 2019, gave up on him.

Of course, Drew Pomeranz is about the flukiest all-star since Steven Wright. Picture Dr. Evil quoting "all-star" whenever you think of Pomeranz as such. Guy had half a good season and suddenly he's worth your top pitching prospect, Anderson Espinoza?

Did Dombrowski think that the Red Sox organization was just the cure for Pomeranz's ails? That this consistently inconsistent enigma of a pitcher would flourish under the Boston method?

The jury remains out and then some on Espionoza, still just 19 years old. He might become Pedro Martinez, he might become Felix Doubront. Who knows.

But let's say Dombrowski saw something in Pomeranz, just 27 at the time of his acquisition. Let's say Dombrowski believed Pomeranz hadn't yet reached the height of his potential, which isn't impossible. Late bloomers do exist. Take a look at Jake Arrieta on the Cubs, for example.

However, giving up on Espinoza means there'll be another lengthy wait until the next serviceable homegrown pitching prospect arrives at Fenway.

This is hardly a problem unique to the Red Sox, but it has been 10 years since you can honestly say a Red Sox pitching prospect 'made it' with the club. You wanna know who that someone is?



That's right, the Red Sox haven't truly developed a starting pitcher from their own system since the Bullfrog. Before that it was Jon Lester -- who, by the way, wore No. 31 for the Red Sox, the same number Pomeranz was issued. But that is another story for another time.

There's different ways to acquire starting pitching. The Red Sox have had exponentially more success this millennium signing pitchers in free agency or acquiring them than developing them through their own farm system.

By that logic, fine, giving up on Espinoza for someone on the outside makes sense. But we're not talking about Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Rick Porcello, Chris Sale or any other pitcher the Red Sox have acquired via trade in recent memory.

We're talking about Drew freaking Pomeranz. I truly wish there were a way he and "Manager John" could just stay in Oakland this weekend and never comeback. Because this Red Sox team is circling the drain and we're not even out of the conference finals in the NBA or NHL playoffs. Even the 2012 team hung on into July before things really went south under the current athletic director of Sacred Heart University (look it up).

Pomeranz has been an abject failure. In a similar manner to his frustrating predecessor Clay Buchholz, it's likely he's going to continue to get chance after chance because the alternatives -- failed prospects Henry Owens or Brian Johnson, or journeymen like Kyle Kendrick -- just may, in fact, be worse.

His trade value is less than zero at the moment. Designating Pomeranz for assignment makes little sense at this juncture, but then again, neither does moving him to the bullpen. People forget it was Pomeranz, in relief of Buchholz, who served up a gopher ball to Coco Crisp in Game 3 of the 2016 ALDS to really put the Red Sox in a hole and send David Ortiz into retirement.

My best idea for Pomeranz? Give the Mets a call and offer Pomeranz and a boatload of cash for Matt Harvey. What could possible go wrong with Pomeranz and his injury history and the Mets training staff? Harvey is nothing more than a name at this point; the Mets need to cut bait with him pretty desperately as well.

Believe it or not, Harvey has been worse than Pomeranz this year. He's 2-3 with a 5.56 ERA and a 31-22 K-BB ratio; Pomeranz is 3-3 with a 4.97 ERA and a 45-16 K-BB ratio.

Trading for a pitcher who's performed worse than Pomeranz makes little sense. But then again, neither did acquiring him in the first place. One might say that for as much as there's a reason Pomeranz is on his fifth organization, there's a reason Dave Dombrowski is now on his fourth as a general manager.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Markelle Fultz: Buyer Beware?

I remember it like it was yesterday. The year was 2007, the Celtics had the second-worst record in the NBA, and I even created this group on Facebook back when that was a thing. I was posted up in my living room for the lottery, and as the No. 5 overall pick was unveiled for the Celts, I distinctly recall rolling off of my couch in disgust.

You know the rest. Losing out on a top-2 pick persuaded Danny Ainge to trade for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, yada yada yada.

Fast forward to last night, roughly 10 years to the day, for the most important lottery for the Celtics since that fateful night in '07. Wouldn't you know it, the ping pong balls popped a different way and all of a sudden, no team in recent memory is playing with house money quite like the Celtics are. Getting swept by the Cavs will barely merit a paragraph in sports sections across the region as Boston turns it's eyes towards that No. 1 overall pick, who I keep hearing should be Markelle Fultz.

If you're thinking to yourself "huh, I remember watching a lot of the NCAA Tournament this year, seeing great games like URI vs. Creighton, but I don't remember seeing any game featuring this Fultz guy..." you wouldn't be wrong.

Fultz played for the Washington Huskies (9-22, 2-16 Pac-12). Eleventh out of 12 is where the Huskies finished in their league, in a league that wasn't exactly your Big East of the glory days.

Fultz was simply outstanding, averaging 23.2 points per game, 5.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists. He was basically Jackie Moon, floundering away on a sad sack team. A team so bad that it cost Lorenzo Romar, who'd been at the school since 2002, his job.

The question is...why was Fultz at Washington to begin with? He said here, among other places, it was his close relationship with Romar. 

Fair. It's not like the Huskies were Fultz's lone option; he had offers from a myriad of perennial powers including Arizona, Cincinnati, Florida St., Georgetown, Kansas, Louisville, Maryland, Memphis, Miami (Fla.), NC St., Oklahoma St., Penn St., South Carolina, UConn, UNC, USC, 
Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia and Xavier.

So it's pretty clear Fultz had his pick of the litter in choosing schools. By my count, all but five of the above schools qualified for the NCAA Tournament last year.

Precedent was set one draft ago that missing out on the NCAA Tournament doesn't matter in the eyes of certain NBA executives when evaluating potential top picks, as the Philadelphia 76ers took Ben Simmons out of LSU (19-14, 11-7 SEC). 

Simmons was injured in the preseason and ultimately missed the entire year for the Sixers, so the grade remains somewhat incomplete on that pick.

But going back in the annals of draft history - in both the one-and-done era and yesteryear - you'd be hard pressed to find a No. 1 overall pick who hailed from a team that performed as badly as Fultz's Huskies this year. Take a look below; I'll go all the way back the last 25 years with No. 1 picks and their team results, excluding high school and international picks:

2015: Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
Team result: 38-1; Lost in Final Four

2014: Andrew Wiggins, Kansas
Team result: 25-10; Lost in second round of NCAA Tournament

2013: Anthony Bennett, UNLV
Team result: 25-10; Lost in first round of NCAA Tournament

2012: Anthony Davis, Kentucky
Team result: 38-2; Won National Championship

2011: Kyrie Irving, Duke
Team result: 32-5; Lost in Sweet 16

2010: John Wall, Kentucky
Team result: 35-3; Lost in Elite 8

2009: Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
Team result: 30-6; Lost in Elite 8

2008: Derrick Rose, Memphis
Team result: 38-2; Lost in National Championship

2007: Greg Oden, Ohio State
Team result: 35-4; Lost in National Championship

2006: Andrea Bargnani, International

2005: Andrew Bogut, Utah
Team result: 29-6; Lost in Sweet 16

2004: Dwight Howard, High School

2003: LeBron James, High School

2002: Yao Ming, International

2001: Kwame Brown, High School

2000: Kenyon Martin, Cincinnati 
Team result: 29-4; Lost in second round of NCAA Tournament

1999: Elton Brand, Duke
Team result: 37-2; Lost in National Championship

1998: Michael Olowokandi, Pacific University
Team result: 23-10; Missed NCAA Tournament

1997: Tim Duncan, Wake Forst
Team result: 24-7: Lost in second round of NCAA Tournament

1996: Allen Iverson, Georgetown
Team result: 29-8; Lost in Elite 8

1995: Joe Smith, Maryland
Team result: 26-8; Lost in Sweet 16

1994: Glenn Robinson, Purdue
Team result: 29-5; Lost in Elite 8

1993: Chris Webber, Michigan
Team result: 31-5; Lost in National Championship

1992: Shaquille O'Neal, LSU
Team result: 21-10; Lost in second round of NCAA Tournament

1991: Larry Johnson, UNLV
Team result: 34-1; Lost in Final Four

You get the idea. Everyone with the exception of Ben Simmons and the immortal Michael Olowokandi led their teams to at least the second round of the NCAA tournament in their final (only) collegiate campaigns.

Now you're probably thinking "uh hey Lev, you realize Anthony Bennett and some of these other stiffs never amounted to squat in the NBA, right?" 

Glad you asked. Of the above list, lets call Bennett, Oden, Brown and Olowokandi busts. You can call several others disappointing (Barganini, Smith, perhaps Bogut), but for the sake of this argument, the four above unquestionably returned the least amount of value on their No. 1 overall selections.

How did the No. 2 overall picks in said years look in their final years of college?

2013: Victor Oladipo, Indiana
Team result: 29-7; Lost in Sweet 16

2007: Kevin Durant, Texas
Team result: 25-10; Lost in second round of NCAA Tournament

2001: Tyson Chandler, High School

1998: Mike Bibby, Arizona
Team result: 30-5; Lost in Elite 8


One future Hall of Famer and three other reasonably good players.

A few other things: how many of the No. 1 overall picks in the selected window went on to win NBA Championships? Or more directly, how many were a key reason for a championship (sorry, Andrew Bogut). I've got Shaq, Duncan, Bronny and Kyrie as pivotal players on title teams.

On the flip side, being a great winner in college doesn't equal automatic success in the NBA, either. Going beyond the top pick, look at guys like Carmelo Anthony, any of the mid-2000s Florida guys, etc. Goes both ways.

There's no shortage of permutations to crunch the numbers and shift them to fit an argument on whether or not Fultz is potentially a cautionary tale because he played on a godawful Washington team. And that's before we get into who the likely alternative No. 1 overall pick could potentially be, from the House of Ball.

All this to say I'm not declaring Fultz a bust before a single NBA minute, nor am I entertaining the notion the Celtics should trade the pick. Just something to think about here as Danny Ainge tries to solve a problem, which is a great problem to have.