Thursday, January 9, 2020

National Championship preview: No. 1 LSU vs No. 3 Clemson

After an outrageous sixteen days of waiting, the final game of the 2019 college football season will kickoff on Monday night, as No. 1 LSU will be going up against No. 3 Clemson at 8 pm Eastern in New Orleans. The in-state Tigers are currently favored by 5.5 in this one, and a shootout is expected as the over/under is at 69.5. This will be only the fourth time the two teams have met, with every matchup being for a bowl game; LSU won 7-0 in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day of 1959, then came out on top in the 1996 Peach Bowl 10-7. The most recent meeting was on New Year's Eve of 2012, when Clemson took home the Chick-fil-A bowl with a last-second field goal to win 25-24.


This will be Clemson's fourth National Championship appearance in the last five seasons, and they'll be seeking to win their third title in just four years. This also marks LSU's fourth shot at the crown since the turn of the century; they were deemed champions in the 2003 and 2007 seasons, but were taken down by Alabama in the 2011 season. Ironically, all of the aforementioned games featuring LSU have taken place in New Orleans.

It's important to not closely compare this National Title matchup to last year's; Yes, it features the SEC Champ favored over Trevor Lawrence and Clemson. But Joe Burrow is infinitely more effective than a banged up Tua, and Clemson's defense obtains a few less NFL first round picks. It may look relatively similar at a glance, but those are some major, major differences.


It's extremely difficult to doubt Joe Burrow and LSU's offense at the moment. I was under the impression that at some point, an offense operating at this pace was bound to falter, even if it were only a slight instance. But there has been no slowing down whatsoever. I'm fully aware that Oklahoma's defense is not nearly the firmest that LSU has faced, but come on. The Heisman winner completed 74.4% of his throws for 493 yards and seven touchdowns. Seven touchdowns. In a playoff game. Putting up 63 points in the playoff, no matter the opponent, is absurdly impressive.

Like I said, this Clemson defensive unit is far more threatening than that of the Sooners: Clemson has allowed an average of 10.6 points per game, although their last two have been more than that average, letting up 17 to Virginia and 23 to Ohio State. However, Clemson's defensive strengths against the Buckeyes go much deeper than just the final score. Holding Ohio State to a few field goals in the red zone proved to be absolutely massive, along with picking off Justin Fields twice in crucial moments. Despite allowing 516 total yards of offense and 28 first downs, Clemson bent but did not break. And that's what mattered in the end. They also sacked Justin Fields four times, tallying nine tackles for loss.


This defense has allowed the fewest passing yards per game with 138.5, although Joe Burrow is lightyears ahead of any quarterback Clemson has faced (aside from Fields, who Burrow is still far better than). They've also allowed the 9th fewest rushing yards per game with 106.2. They did let Ohio State's JK Dobbins rush for 174 yards on 18 carries in their semifinal game, but also kept BC's AJ Dillon under 100 yards earlier in the year (these are the two best running backs Clemson has played). I'd say LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a little better than Dillon, but vastly inferior to Dobbins, if that helps shape your expectations for Monday night. Edwards-Helaire recorded only two carries against Oklahoma, as he was dealing with a hamstring injury that has hopefully had some time to heal with this ridiculously long break in between games. But even if he's not 100% by game time, Clemson can't just ignore defending LSU's run game, as running back Chris Curry was able to put up an effective 90 yards on 16 carries against Oklahoma.


Clemson's playoff victory over Ohio State was largely due to the defense holding their ground and preventing an early blowout, but a handful of mammoth plays by Trevor Lawrence also made highly impactful contributions. It's tough to count out the sophomore quarterback in any game; the kid hasn't lost as a starter since he was in high school. Sure, he had a less than ideal start to the season, but he hasn't thrown an interception since October 19th against Louisville. He's been going full speed ahead in the second half of the season. Lawrence's toughness was certainly on display against a monstrous Ohio State defense; he was taking some seriously massive hits repeatedly, yet kept getting up and eventually led Clemson to another berth in the National Championship. Trevor Lawrence is simply a gamer, but he will be throwing against one of the more star-studded defensive backfields in the country on Monday night.


LSU's defensive backfield, highlighted by Grant Delpit and Derek Stingley Jr., undoubtedly has some legitimate NFL talent. You'd have to go back to the Ole Miss game on November 16th to find the LSU defense allowing a team to complete over 50% of their passes. As a unit, this defense has totaled 17 interceptions and 76 pass breakups, on top of five forced fumbles. It is worth noting that LSU has allowed an average of 221.7 passing yards per game, which ranks as 9th just in the SEC (outside the top 50 nationally). Opposing quarterbacks have taken a total of 35 sacks from the LSU defense this year, which is actually the fewest of all the playoff teams (Oklahoma had 36, Clemson 41, and Ohio State 54). They have let up the 24th fewest rushing yards per game with 119.6. LSU will be trying to stop one of the nation's best running backs (and Louisiana native), Travis Etienne, who has rushed for less than 100 yards in only six games this year. To add to that, there have only been two games this season that Etienne hasn't reached the end zone, whether that be rushing or receiving.

Comparing and contrasting all of these statistics can obviously get a little shaky because of the varying opponents on each team's schedule. If you hadn't heard by now, Clemson ain't played nobody. Until they did on the big stage against Ohio State (who arguably looked as impressive as LSU throughout the regular season) and came out on top. The fact of the matter is, the ACC has sucked for years. Yet Clemson has still been able to compete with, and beat, the nation's most talented squads. They've won 29 straight games, and have earned the title as college football's new top dog. Their strength of schedule hasn't seemed to hinder their title hopes in the past few seasons, and certainly does not diminish their legitimacy.

Yet on the other side of this matchup, LSU successfully remaining undefeated through an absolute gauntlet of a schedule has rendered a general feeling of invincibility, and rightfully so. I think it's safe to say that the majority of viewers will be pulling for LSU. First and foremost, people tend to dig parity, which Clemson has been disallowing in recent years. But this LSU team has the extreme likability of Coach Orgeron, and the amazing comeback story of Joe Burrow, the newest addition to the Heisman House. They have a somewhat storybook feel to their season, and what better place to cap off a dominant run than a packed Superdome just under 90 minutes from campus?

Whatever happens in this one, let's just hope it lives up to the hype of two undefeated teams squaring off for the National Championship. I'm fully expecting a thriller that ends up being separated by just a single possession. As much as it sucks how quickly this college football season seemed to fly by, I have a good feeling it'll be concluded by a worthy battle between two incredible squads.

As always, it's been a blast writing throughout the many weeks of this past fall and early winter, and I appreciate every reader that has kept up with my work.

Wednesday, December 25, 2019

College football playoff: previewing No. 2 Ohio State vs No. 3 Clemson

Finding the right words to accurately describe how much I'm looking forward to this game has proven to be a wildly difficult task. The Fiesta Bowl between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Clemson is an absolute heavyweight matchup; a plethora of NFL draft picks will be present on the field, representing two teams that have remained unblemished through thirteen games. The reigning National Champions will be facing off against the winner of the inaugural College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes are the only team that's not Clemson or Alabama to win the playoff.

There's no doubt that there is a major drop off from the No. 3 to No. 4 spot with Clemson and Oklahoma, so LSU getting the No. 1 spot over Ohio State was pretty significant. And yes, Ohio State had a pretty good argument for being No. 1 in the country, although the committee did get it right. And regardless of your ranking, if you're the best team you'll beat whoever lines up across from you. Talk all you want about strength of schedule, but these are two extremely legitimate football teams, and I'm praying that this one isn't a letdown. Kickoff from Glendale, AZ will be at 7 pm Eastern on ESPN. The Tigers are currently favored by two points.

Let's compare some of these teams' general stats from this year:

  • Points per game: Ohio State 48.7  |  Clemson 46.5
  • Points allowed per game: Ohio State 12.5  |  Clemson 10.6
  • Total yards per game: Ohio State 531.0  |  Clemson 547.7
  • Yards allowed per game: Ohio State 247.6  |  Clemson 244.7
Taking these four statistics into account, Ohio State and Clemson have been elite in 2019; Clemson leads the nation in both fewest points allowed per game, and fewest yards allowed per game. Ohio State ranks second in both of those categories. On the offensive side of the ball, Ohio State has put up the most points per game in the country, while having the fifth most total yards per game. Clemson has the third highest point average, and the fourth most yards per game.

The last time Clemson lost a game was on New Year's day of 2018 to Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinal. Ohio State hasn't lost since October 20th of 2018 in an upset to Purdue. Both squads have been absolutely clobbering their opponents, although the Buckeyes have overcome greater obstacles throughout the 2019 schedule; Ohio State's last three wins were over No. 8 Wisconsin, No. 14 Michigan, and No. 10 Penn State. Meanwhile Clemson's last three victories came against No. 24 Virginia, South Carolina, and Wake Forest.


The dynamic duo of quarterback Justin Fields (finished fourth in Heisman voting) and running back JK Dobbins has proven to be quite the conundrum for opposing defenses. With two freak athletes like that in the backfield, Ohio State is able to run option plays with relative ease. Fields has rushed for 471 yards on 123 carries with ten touchdowns, while Dobbins has totaled 1,829 rushing yards (third most) and 20 touchdowns (sixth most) on 283 carries.


The Tigers also boast a top-tier run threat in junior Travis Etienne, who has been tremendously efficient for this offense. Etienne's touchdown (17) and rushing yard (1,500) totals aren't quite as many as Dobbins', but he's in the top-ten for both of those categories on 101 less carries than Dobbins. Etienne is leading the country in yards per carry with 8.2. In the case that Clemson's passing game is disrupted, they're lucky enough to have a guy who produces big plays like Travis Etienne.


So yes, Clemson is lucky enough to have a good running back if their air-attack faces some issues. But unfortunately for Clemson, they have to go up against college football's best pass rusher Chase Young, who finished third in Heisman voting. Young leads the nation in sacks with 16.5, despite missing two games due to suspension. Those two games were against Rutgers and Maryland. Can you imagine the stat-padding he could've accomplished against Rutgers and Maryland? On top of all those sacks, the star defensive end has forced six fumbles. Young isn't the only beast on this Buckeye defense either; as a unit they've totaled 51 total sacks and fifteen interceptions. And in terms of stopping the run, Ohio State has allowed an average of 99.5 rushing yards per game.


As the numbers and the film show, Clemson's defense is also really damn good. Definitely don't expect the Tigers to hold this Ohio State offense to only ten points like they've averaged throughout the season. Brent Venables' Clemson defense is highlighted by junior linebacker Isaiah Simmons. He's projected to be a first round NFL draft pick, and has compiled 2019 honors such as the Butkus Award and the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Simmons is a versatile defender, as he's effective rushing off the edge and lining up as a backer. On the year, he's racked up 93 total tackles (58 solo, 35 assisted) which leads the team, along with six sacks, a forced fumble, and two interceptions.

It's certainly not breaking news that this game will feature two of the best quarterbacks that college football has to offer, with Justin Fields being under center for the Buckeyes, and Trevor Lawrence for the Tigers. Fields is definitely much more of a dual-threat than Lawrence, although the Clemson QB is still pretty mobile when necessary. Lawrence (3,172) leads Fields (2,953) in passing yards, but Lawrence has thrown 24 more passes this season. Fields has an absolutely ridiculous touchdown to interception ratio, as he's completed 40 throws into the end zone while only throwing one interception. Lawrence has recorded 34 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. Their completion percentages are on par with each other: Fields has completed 67.5% of his passes and Lawrence has connected on 68.8% of his.

I've developed a firm belief that the winner of this game will go on to eventually be crowned as National Champions, regardless of who it is. If you're looking to me for answers on which team will leave this semifinal game victorious, I'm probably not your guy. Both of these teams are so damn good all around, that it's impossible for me to settle on an outcome in which one of them loses. Which is ridiculous, because that obviously has to happen. And as much as I think/want/need it to be a close and exhilarating matchup, both teams are so good that they seem capable of blowing anyone out. When it's all said and done, I'd be stunned if this wasn't the better of the two playoff games on Saturday.

Monday, December 23, 2019

College football playoff: previewing No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Oklahoma

This Saturday afternoon in Atlanta, we get to see the No. 1 LSU Tigers take on the No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners in the College Football Playoff semifinal. The odds are stacked against Lincoln Riley and the Sooners, as LSU (led by the Coach of the Year) is favored by 13.5. The Peach Bowl kicks off at 4 pm Eastern on ESPN.

Statistically, both of these teams are very comparable. One could even say eerily comparable when taking these numbers into account:

  • Points per game: LSU 47.8  |  Oklahoma 43.2
  • Points allowed per game: LSU 21.2  |  Oklahoma 24.5
  • Total yards per game: LSU 554.3  |  Oklahoma 554.2
  • Yards allowed per game: LSU 341.3  |  Oklahoma 330.6
Now, one could sit here and argue that these numerical comparisons are influenced by varying external factors, mainly strength of schedule, but none of that will matter once opening kickoff arrives. 


LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, your 2019 Heisman Trophy winner, is obviously the most noteworthy player that will be on the field in Atlanta on Saturday. On 439 attempts this year, Burrow has thrown for a whopping 4,715 yards (2nd most) and 48 touchdowns (most in the country), with a completion rate of 77.9%. Burrow did all of this while only throwing six interceptions. The newest addition to the Heisman House has undeniable talent and poise; LSU's schedule featured a handful of huge games, and this kid never seemed to lose his cool. 

Burrow has had plenty of fun throwing to one of the nation's best wide receivers, sophomore Ja'Marr Chase. He leads the nation in reception yards (1,498) and touchdown receptions (18) on 73 catches (averaging 20.5 yards per reception). There have only been four games this year in which Chase hasn't tallied reception yards in the triple digits: 21 yards vs Georgia Southern, 54 yards vs Utah State, 48 vs Mississippi State, and 41 against Georgia in the SEC Championship. Chase's most dominant performance came on the road at Vanderbilt, where he caught ten passes for 229 yards and four touchdowns. 

LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a big-time difference maker in this offense, but the team may be without their leading rusher on Saturday. The junior is dealing with a hamstring injury, and it is uncertain if he will play. Even if he does, which he might, who really knows how effective he'll be. Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 1,290 yards and 16 touchdowns (11th most nationwide) on 197 carries (6.5 yards per rush). He's also tallied 399 reception yards this season on 50 catches. Throughout the year, he has eclipsed 100 yards on the ground six different times, most notably when he ran for 188 yards on only six carries against Arkansas. 


The Tigers' defensive unit is highlighted by two absolute studs in the defensive backfield: junior safety Grant Delpit and freshman cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. Delpit has had the honor of wearing No. 7 for LSU this season, and is projected by many to be a first round NFL draft pick in the spring. He is the 2019 Jim Thorpe award winner, which is given to college football's top defensive back. The consensus All-American has racked up 56 tackles (3 TFL, 1 sack), two picks, and eight pass breakups. And then Stingley has been one of, if not the, most impressive freshmen in the country. The Baton Rouge native was deemed a consensus All-American, as he totaled 34 tackles, six interceptions (5th most nationwide) and 21 pass breakups. It will be difficult for the Sooners to rely heavily on their passing game against a defensive backfield like this one.

Taking a look at the Big 12 Champs, Oklahoma will be hoping that Jalen Hurts' abundant playoff experience from his past life at Alabama will translate into success in the semifinal spotlight. It's indisputable that LSU has the more proven football team, but if the Sooners are able to pull off something special, it will rely on Jalen Hurts absolutely balling out. Which, for the record, he is capable of. But to what extent? On the year, Hurts has been a force throwing for 3,634 yards (9th most) and 32 touchdowns (tied for 10th most), while also rushing for 1,255 yards and 18 touchdowns.  Hurts possesses a rare form of athleticism, which allows him to make big plays amidst chaos, something the LSU certainly plans on providing. Hurts' talent combined with his big game experience could potentially disrupt LSU's path to glory. In Oklahoma's regular season finale against Oklahoma State, Hurts recorded a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown like the jack of all trades that he is. 


Hurts' favorite receiver is one of the most dangerous playmakers in all of college football, CeeDee Lamb. Quite frankly, CeeDee Lamb has the ability to gain big yardage and/or get into the end zone anytime the ball is in his hands. The way he can make multiple defenders look silly is truly something to marvel at. There's not a single doubt in my mind that he'll be a first round pick in the spring. The junior out of Richmond, TX has reeled in 58 catches for 1.208 yards (8th most) for an average of 20.8 yards per reception (7th best). His 14 touchdown catches are tied for the 4th most in the country. Lamb has recorded over 100 yards in six different games this season: 173 on eight catches against Iowa State, 135 on five catches at Kansas State, 171 on ten against Texas, 185 on seven against Texas Tech, and 144 on six against South Dakota. 

Although Jalen Hurts is leading Oklahoma in rushing this year, a few different running backs have been pretty significant contributors as well: Kennedy Brooks is averaging 6.7 yards per carry on 145 touches with five touchdowns. Trey Sermon has been accountable for four touchdowns and 385 yards, with an average of 7.1 yards per carry. Unfortunately for this run-attack, Rhamondre Stevenson is suspended for this game; he's totaled 515 yards on 64 carries, which is an eight-yard average, and has tallied six trips to the end zone. 


Stevenson isn't the only significant loss due to suspension, as Oklahoma's best pass rusher, defensive end Ronnie Perkins, is also being forced to sit this one out. The sophomore out of Saint Louis has put up 38 tackles (28 solo, 10 assisted) and six sacks this year, on top of a forced fumble back in week one. Perkins led the defense in sacks, although sophomore defensive tackle Jalen Redmond is right behind him with 5.5. The unit as a whole has totaled 35 sacks. As we all know, the LSU offense loves to utilize Burrow's arm, so the Sooners' pass rush absolutely needs to show up.


These two teams have faced off only two times before this: a 35-0 victory for Oklahoma all the way back in 1950, and a 21-14 win for LSU to cap off the 2003 season, giving Nick Saban his first of many National Championships. This is LSU's first appearance in the College Football Playoff, and Oklahoma has appeared in the final four twice before. Whether the Sooners' past in the playoff serves as "experience" or a reminder of coming up short, well that's up to your discretion. In 2015 Oklahoma got spanked 37-13 by Clemson. And then in 2017 at the Rose Bowl, they lost in an overtime thriller to Georgia. So there is a trend of progression in their semifinal appearances, and we'll see if they're able to take the next step after a playoff absence last season.

It all boils down to this: it'd take some shocking events for Oklahoma to pull this off. They're not a terrible team; they deserve this playoff spot. But LSU is a well-oiled machine and seems to have everything going for them. Oklahoma won all of their games except one, but they weren't beating legitimate competition in a convincing fashion. Yet the Tigers were able to get through a gauntlet of a schedule with an undefeated record. While Oklahoma does have some truly electric players, Coach O's boys have been simply phenomenal and I really struggle to believe the Sooners will be able to keep up with them all game. 

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

College football playoff rankings: conference championship week

The regular season is officially in the rearview and conference championship matchups are set, with the playoff picture being less than a week away from being complete. The rankings revealed this evening are as follows:

  1. Ohio State (12-0) 
  2. LSU (12-0)
  3. Clemson (12-0)
  4. Georgia (11-1)
  5. Utah (11-1)
  6. Oklahoma (11-1)
  7. Baylor (11-1)
  8. Wisconsin (10-2)
  9. Florida (10-2)
  10. Penn State (10-2)
  11. Auburn (9-3)
  12. Alabama (10-2)
  13. Oregon (10-2)
  14. Michigan (9-3)
  15. Notre Dame (10-2)
  16. Iowa (9-3)
  17. Memphis (11-1)
  18. Minnesota (10-2)
  19. Boise State (11-1)
  20. Cincinnati (10-2)
  21. Appalachian State (11-1)
  22. USC (8-4)
  23. Virginia (9-3)
  24. Navy (9-2)
  25. Oklahoma State (8-4)

This weekend for the conference championships, we have the following teams facing off:
  • SEC: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 4 Georgia
  • BIG 10: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Wisconsin 
  • Big 12: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 7 Baylor
  • Pac 12: No. 5 Utah vs. No. 13 Oregon
  • ACC: No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 23 Virginia
  • AAC: No. 17 Memphis vs. No. 20 Cincinnati 
The SEC title between LSU and Georgia is obviously colossal, featuring two of the nation's top-four teams. I get the feeling that if Georgia can pull it off, LSU will only drop to the No. 4 spot, leading to a playoff with two SEC teams for the second time. There's no guarantee of that happening, but I could definitely see it. LSU is currently favored by 7.5 over the Bulldogs.

Wisconsin jumped up four spots after beating Minnesota and taking home Paul Bunyan's Axe on Saturday. I think the Badgers' new position in the rankings would allow them a playoff berth if they overcome a 16.5 point spread in Indy on Saturday. That seems like it'll take miraculous measures as the Buckeyes look like an absolute freight train going full speed ahead. But if the seemingly impossible happens, defeating a team as impressive as Ohio State would certainly catapult the Badgers four more spots, especially since beating Minnesota did just that. 

The ACC Championship is expected to be a complete blowout, as we've got the reigning National Champs taking on a team that just entered the rankings. Clemson is favored by 28 against Virginia, as the Tigers look to extend their win streak to 28. It seems that people have convinced themselves that this Clemson team isn't of the same caliber as the program's heavyweights of recent years. Anyone who knows what they're talking about wouldn't consider this team an underdog by any means. But I do genuinely think the vast majority of football fans haven't had the Tigers in the front of their minds because of the ACC's poor quality. Those people will be very surprised by Clemson when the playoff rolls around, because this team has not been messing around in the slightest. A playoff win is certainly not a given whatsoever, but anyone who completely writes off Clemson against either LSU or Ohio State because of a weak conference, is quite frankly in the wrong. Since that 21-20 nail biter over UNC many weeks ago, the Tigers have allowed an average of 8.71 points per game, while scoring an average of 50.42 points through those last seven games. So yes, Clemson plays an extremely easy schedule, but they've been making an absolute mockery of their competition.

The biggest question heading into this weekend is, what happens if Utah joins LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson as conference champions? And how will the outcome of the Big 12 Championship affect the Utes' playoff shot? Oregon was in the same discussion before losing to Arizona State two weekends ago, but now their role in the playoff discussion is just potentially disrupting Utah's path to getting in. So far, the Utes have only fallen to No. 22 USC: a respectable seven-point loss all the way back in September. Other than that loss, only one game involving Utah has been separated by less than two possessions: a 33-28 victory on the road at Washington. In all of the Utes' other wins, their average margin of victory has been 29.4. So sure, you can sit there and make the argument that the Pac 12 is subpar, and that Utah's schedule lacks many major challenges. But aside from losing to a solid USC team, they seriously took care of business throughout the whole season. Despite Oregon now having two losses (the Auburn loss looks slightly better after the Iron Bowl last Saturday), it would be a high quality win in a conference championship game after steamrolling the majority of opponents for Utah. This Friday night, Utah is favored by 6.5 against the Ducks.

Oklahoma's sole loss came in late October by seven points to Kansas State, which obviously isn't all that great whatsoever. But what's more concerning is Oklahoma's lackluster rebound since adding a tally to the loss column. After losing to K-State, the Sooners then edged out Iowa State by a single point, followed by a three point victory over Baylor, and then a four point win over TCU. Yes, the Baylor game added a top-ten win to Oklahoma's resume. And yes, Baylor has performed well this season, as Oklahoma has been their only loss. But you can't sit there and tell me that beating Baylor by a field goal translates to deserving a spot to compete with LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson. If the Sooners do indeed beat Baylor for a second time in the Big 12 title game, I think they'll need to win in very convincing fashion (like, by at least three possessions) to really torque themselves into the playoff.

And what if Baylor avenges their only loss to Oklahoma, crowning the Bears as Big 12 Champions? I'd say the same thing goes for them, too; they would need to really dominate this game in order to get in over Utah (assuming they beat Oregon). Both of these teams seem less impressive to me than Utah. Back when Ohio State convinced the playoff committee by winning the conference championship 59-0 over Wisconsin, the Big 12 stupidly didn't have a conference championship game. That eventually left TCU (or potentially Baylor) out of the playoff. They obviously do now, but just the accolade of winning your conference shouldn't automatically get you in. The BIG 10 trophy didn't get Ohio State into the playoff in 2014, it was the fact that they capitalized on one final opportunity to prove their worth to the committee by playing well and turning heads. The committee is only human; recency bias undoubtedly plays a factor. Neither Baylor or Oklahoma will get in over a Pac 12 champion Utah if the Big 12 Championship is kept close by either team. And even if the Sooners or Bears dominate this game, they better hope that if Utah wins, it's in a gritty nail biter. 

Come Sunday evening, all of this ranting and raving and hypothesizing throughout the year about the potential playoff will be rendered useless. But once again, I couldn't have had a better time doing it. Let's see how this weekends's games turn out, and let's get us a finalized playoff picture. 

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

College football playoff rankings: week twelve

The weekend's rankings that were just revealed have almost the exact same top-10: all ten teams are still in there, but the numbers eight, nine, and ten shuffled amongst each other after this past weekend's games. Here's what we've got for week twelve:
  1. LSU (10-0)
  2. Ohio State (10-0)
  3. Clemson (11-0)
  4. Georgia (9-1)
  5. Alabama (9-1)
  6. Oregon (9-1)
  7. Utah (9-1)
  8. Penn State (9-1)
  9. Oklahoma (9-1)
  10. Minnesota (9-1)
  11. Florida (9-2)
  12. Wisconsin (8-2)
  13. Michigan (8-2)
  14. Baylor (9-1)
  15. Auburn (7-3)
  16. Notre Dame (8-2)
  17. Iowa (7-3)
  18. Memphis (9-1)
  19. Cincinnati (9-1)
  20. Boise State (9-1)
  21. Oklahoma State (7-3)
  22. Iowa State (6-4)
  23. USC (7-4)
  24. Appalachian State (9-1)
  25. SMU (9-1)

Easily the biggest storyline to come out of last weekend is Tua Tagovailoa's season-ending hip injury in Alabama's trip to Mississippi State. Tua has certainly been one of the most exciting players these past few seasons; watching him sling it to speedy 'Bama receivers is fun as hell. He's obviously one of the top quarterbacks in the country and his absence would undoubtedly hurt Alabama's shot at beating a playoff opponent, if the No. 5 Tide manage to get there.

But that's what I want to talk about. It was already a little bothersome that Alabama is the first team out of the final four as of now, seeing as they haven't beat anyone of note. And now with no Tua under center? No thank you. Please, do not put them in there if LSU beats Georgia. "But what about Cardale Jones?!?! Anything can happen!" Valid point; if the roster is truly talented enough, they'll make it work with a backup QB, much like the 2014 Ohio State Buckeyes did with their third string guy. But Ohio State convinced the committee to put them in over TCU because they absolutely smashed Wisconsin 59-0 in the BIG 10 Championship. The Crimson Tide won't have the chance to leave that final impression in the conference title game, seeing as they lost their single most important regular season game. And look, I know a playoff spot probably shouldn't be decided on an unexpected injury. But for the purpose of entertainment value, a lack of Tua is absolutely crucial. 

So who gets the nod if 'Bama doesn't deserve it? Obviously things still need to work themselves out. If Georgia does end up beating LSU in the SEC Championship, it'd be an easy final four of those two along with Clemson and Ohio State (assuming the Tigers and Buckeyes win out). But LSU will obviously be the favorites against Georgia, so in these scenarios let's assume Georgia ends up with two losses, which I don't think should get them in.

Auburn's loss to Georgia last weekend hurt the resumes of both Alabama and Oregon. If 'Bama tops Auburn in the Iron Bowl, it certainly won't look as impressive had Auburn came out with a win. And as we know, Auburn is the only team that Oregon has lost to. The fact that the loss came in week one certainly helps the Ducks, as they've look good ever since, and have seemed to improve over the course of the season. The committee tends to like that. Oregon hasn't racked up a ton of wins over quality opponents, as the Pac 12's depth is that of a kiddie pool (the ACC's is a puddle after a mild rain storm). Oregon's one top-25 win was over No. 23 USC, who just entered the rankings this week. USC is also the only team that has beaten No. 7 Utah. That loss doesn't really hold a whole lot of value for the Utes, but USC should remain in the rankings as their only game left is very winnable against UCLA. Last weekend was huge for both Oregon and Utah in the eye test, as they both smoked their competition: the Ducks beat Arizona 34-6 and Utah smacked UCLA 49-3.

I guess it really won't matter after they take on Ohio State in Columbus this weekend, but for now I kind of feel like Penn State should be ranked ahead of both Oregon and Utah. The Nittany Lions have a more impressive resume: their sole loss to No. 10 Minnesota is more impressive than both of the Pac 12 teams' losses. They also have two top-20 wins (No. 13 Michigan and No. 17 Iowa), which neither the Ducks or Utes can claim. Again, this argument will probably wipe itself out after Penn State gets mopped by the Buckeyes this weekend, but it's worth noting. 

Oklahoma's massive comeback last Saturday dished Baylor their first loss of the season, causing the Bears to drop just one spot and the Sooners to jump up just one spot. So the committee clearly considers Oklahoma to be a very good team, since losing to them barely took a toll on Baylor's value. But the appraisal of Oklahoma in Baylor's sense doesn't really translate to Oklahoma's benefit of the situation. Either way, the Sooners' loss to Kansas State is worse than any loss suffered by the teams ranked ahead of them. They will have a chance to beat Baylor a second time in the Big 12 Championship, which would add to their squeaker of a win against No. 22 Iowa State, and their potential win over No. 21 Oklahoma State. Who knows, though, if Oklahoma State would stay in the rankings after dropping one to the Sooners.

Alright, as you were. Had to get that all out.


Thursday, November 14, 2019

College football playoff rankings: week eleven

The playoff picture certainly got a nice little shakeup last weekend, with two of the top four teams suffering a loss. Last night revealed an updated top-25, which is as follows: 
  1. LSU (9-0)
  2. Ohio State (9-0)
  3. Clemson (10-0)
  4. Georgia (8-1)
  5. Alabama (8-1)
  6. Oregon (8-1)
  7. Utah (8-1)
  8. Minnesota (9-0)
  9. Penn State (8-1)
  10. Oklahoma (8-1)
  11. Florida (8-2)
  12. Auburn (7-2)
  13. Baylor (9-0)
  14. Wisconsin (7-2)
  15. Michigan (7-2)
  16. Notre Dame (7-2)
  17. Cincinnati (8-1)
  18. Memphis (8-1)
  19. Texas (6-3)
  20. Iowa (6-3)
  21. Boise State (8-1)
  22. Oklahoma State (6-3)
  23. Navy (7-1)
  24. Kansas State (6-3)
  25. Appalachian State (8-1)

Per usual, the main area of focus in reaction to the rankings came in the four to six range, where we have Georgia ahead of Alabama, who is followed by Oregon. All three of those teams have one loss. You're probably aware I hate the term "good losses" but when a bunch of teams have the same number of losses, it's obviously going to matter who they were defeated by. Alabama has the best loss, which came at home to LSU, the (so far) clear-cut top team in the country. Oregon's sole loss came to No. 12 Auburn in week one at a neutral site, and it came down to the absolute wire. For now, that loss holds value. However, the value of that loss will certainly fluctuate, while also affecting the resume of both Georgia and Alabama, as the Bulldogs play Auburn this Saturday and the Tide face off with them at the end of the month. But back to losses, Georgia easily has the worst of the three, as they fell at home to South Carolina, a team that has a measly 4-6 record. 

But what matters more than the quality of losses? Beating good teams. Alabama's loss is to the No. 1 team in the nation, but they honestly haven't beaten anyone good yet. Yes, they came close at the end there against LSU, but it seemed pretty evident to me who the better team was. The small point differential and Tua's health could play devil's advocate to that, but again it's obvious that LSU is superior to Saban's Tide this year. Alabama hasn't knocked out a single noteworthy opponent, with their most impressive win being over Texas A&M. Georgia, on the other hand, has beaten Notre Dame and Florida. Oregon has no wins over currently ranked teams, but apparently they've impressed the committee with their level of play in the lowly Pac 12. So again, the Ducks' reputation is really clinging onto that nail biter of a loss to Auburn. And as I had mentioned, Auburn's efforts through the remainder of the regular season can really influence these three teams. If Georgia and 'Bama both beat Auburn, that really diminishes any value of Oregon keeping it close with the Tigers. If either (or both) of them lose to Auburn, that obviously makes Oregon look better. 

Although most of the chaotic debates revolved around the four-through-six spots, seven through ten definitely gets dicey as well. Checking in at No. 7 is Utah who has lost to USC (6-4), and has eight wins, none of which came against teams that are currently ranked. In fact, the remainder of their regular season schedule doesn't feature a single ranked team. They likely could face off against Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship, which would obviously be a solid win. But Utah's playoff chances in that scenario would still be dependent on the SEC and the Big 12 and how everything works itself out in those conferences. 

Undefeated Minnesota made the biggest leap ever in the CFP rankings, going from No. 17 to No. 8. Some may believe that the Gophers are still underrated, and that could be argued seeing as they just beat Penn State. And according to this same committee making the rankings, Penn State was worthy of a playoff spot just a week ago. Clearly the only thing holding the Gophers back is their lack of quality wins other than last weekend's. They didn't beat any of their non-conference opponents by more than a possession, and the most noteworthy conference victory aside from Penn State came against Illinois. Interpret that as you may. Even if Minnesota is underrated, the next few weeks will absolutely be make or break for them; there's no reason to complain about ranking right now. They have to get through No. 20 Iowa and No. 14 Wisconsin (also a road trip to Northwestern), and if they do, they'll play Ohio State for the conference title. Obviously if they complete all of that, their playoff berth will be undisputed. If they don't, they won't be in the final four. Simple. Doesn't matter if they're No. 4 or No. 10 right now. They have to win out anyway in order to get a playoff spot. 

And right after Minnesota, we have the team they just beat. Penn State still has a shot to beat a 7-2 Indiana team, followed by Ohio State. So they have the opportunity to completely demean their sole loss, but they'd have to win out and take home the BIG 10 Championship. Definitely not an easy task, but despite dropping their last game, things are still in their control. 

Oklahoma is definitely not getting much love, as they're the lowest ranked Power Five team with only one loss. Their one loss came to Kansas State, who is a currently ranked team. They've also taken down Texas, who checks in at No. 19. The Sooners would probably need some help from other conferences, but if they do win out, the resume won't be too shabby: they take on undefeated Baylor this weekend, then TCU, and then No. 22 Oklahoma State. Not to mention the Big 12 Championship will likely feature Oklahoma and Baylor. It'd be pretty convincing if Baylor finished with only two losses, both to Oklahoma. 

Speaking of Baylor, what is their deal? Well, clearly they haven't lost. But Baylor's list of accomplishments this season clearly isn't enough to be taken seriously by the committee. Look, in terms of the eye test, they're not out there tearing up the field like LSU or Ohio State. But they've knocked out two ranked conference opponents, topping Kansas State 31-12 and Oklahoma State 45-27. But like a few other team's I've discussed, Baylor is in control of their playoff chances. They have Oklahoma and Texas left on the schedule, followed by Kansas, and then potentially the Big 12 Championship. Like the others, if they win out and are crowned conference champs, the committee has no choice but to put them in there. 

Let's be honest. Is Alabama truly one of the best four teams in the country? Yeah, most likely. But did they overcome their only challenge of the year so far? No, they did not. A talented roster can't completely outweigh the resume, because then what even is the point of playing the regular season and keeping score? There's still a good chance 'Bama takes up that fourth playoff spot, but for parity's sake let's hope that doesn't happen. 

I know I really only covered less than half of the rankings, but it's clear that the 15-25 range is mostly composed of complete guesses. Seriously, do Notre Dame and Texas look like the No. 16 and No. 19 teams in the country? But then you think, who would I put there instead? I don't know, but for two teams who I want to see be relevant, these squads are both absolute snooze-fests to watch this season. They're not putrid or anything, but there's an absolute minimal excitement factor when it comes to these two programs in 2019. While we're at it, Michigan and Iowa both fit that description. Just mediocre teams whose only purpose is to boost the resumes of those who have beaten them. Anyway, enough ranting. We've got a solid slate this weekend, which features four matchups between ranked teams. 

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Please don't panic about the first set of CFP rankings

It's hypocritical how often I say certain renditions of college football rankings aren't as relevant as many make them out to be, while talking so much about the rankings. And I'm not completely brushing off this week's initial College Football Playoff top-25, not in the slightest. Of course they matter, as it gives us an idea of what values the playoff committee holds. But the amount of overreactions I've read today has been absurd. All that means though, is they've done their best job to get people talking and debating, which is exactly what they want. The season's first College Football Playoff rankings are as follows:

  1. Ohio State (8-0)
  2. LSU (8-0)
  3. Alabama (8-0)
  4. Penn State (8-0)
  5. Clemson (9-0)
  6. Georgia (7-1)
  7. Oregon (8-1)
  8. Utah (8-1)
  9. Oklahoma (7-1)
  10. Florida (7-2)
  11. Auburn (7-2)
  12. Baylor (8-0)
  13. Wisconsin (6-2)
  14. Michigan (7-2)
  15. Notre Dame (6-2)
  16. Kansas State (6-2)
  17. Minnesota (8-0)
  18. Iowa (6-2)
  19. Wake Forest (7-1)
  20. Cincinnati (7-1)
  21. Memphis (8-1)
  22. Boise State (7-1)
  23. Oklahoma State (6-3)
  24. Navy (7-1)
  25. SMU (7-1)

I've seen a lot of opinions and overreactions about Clemson, the undefeated reigning National Champion, being on the outside looking in. You can hoot and holler about how they have more wins than anyone in the country, and that the committee has no reason to doubt a program with so much recent success. You can scream and shout about how they've played nobody because the ACC is putrid, they had a close win over North Carolina, and Trevor Lawrence isn't living up to the expectations set in the preseason. There are valid points on both sides of that argument, but please don't waste too much of your precious breath on that for the moment. These rankings will undoubtedly work themselves out. If Clemson is as good as they should be, they will win out. It is impossible for more than two of the four teams ahead of them to finish without a loss, as Alabama plays LSU and Ohio State plays Penn State. So it's inevitable for Clemson to hop into the top-four pretty much immediately, making all of that yapping and yelling completely useless.

I personally thought the top two would be LSU first, followed by Ohio State. I don't particularly disagree with the flip side of that though; the Tigers have the most impressive accomplishments thus far in terms of scheduled opponents, while Ohio State has simply looked the best in terms of straight up domination and skill. It seems pretty obvious that bias played a factor in Alabama being No. 3, as they honestly haven't beaten anyone noteworthy, much like Clemson. It's absolutely fine that Clemson's recent success doesn't automatically grant them a top spot, as these rankings should have nothing to do with previous rosters in seasons past. But that should also be the case for Alabama. And again, we can discuss all we want about how 'Bama ain't played nobody. Yet in a few days that discussion will be dead, as the Tide play the No. 2 team in the country. So by the time Saturday evening rolls around, Alabama will have certainly played somebody. If they lose, well they'll obviously no longer be considered the No. 3 team nationwide and they'll drop in the rankings. If they beat LSU, they'll have some pretty convincing evidence that they're a top-two team in the country. It's  that simple.

Some may think Minnesota is underrated at No. 17, as they have yet to lose a game. But let's remember, both resume and the eye-test are taken into consideration. Minnesota hasn't really caught the attention of many eyes with their play, and their pristine record has come against a bunch of chumps. The Golden Gophers will have their chance to increase approval ratings when they play Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. If they beat those teams, then of course they're legit. If they don't, then they are who we thought they were.

The Big 12 and Pac 12 Champs (presumably a combo of Oklahoma/Baylor and Oregon/Utah) might still be on the outside looking in even if they win out. They'd likely need some pieces to fall into place in their favor, but these things will play out and if there's still drama after the conference championships are done, then the heated discussions will be worth it. For now, there's really no reason to get worked up about the CFP top-25. When Ohio State won the inaugural College Football Playoff, they were No. 16 in the committee's first rankings. No team that is capable of reaching the playoff is currently in a situation completely out of their hands right now.