The Early Slot: No. 6 Oklahoma vs No. 11 Texas
The annual Red River Showdown between Texas and Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl will be played this Saturday at 11 am Central, with the Sooners being favored over the Longhorns by 11 points. The Longhorns lead the all-time series 62-47, and there have been five ties between them (1903, 1937, 1976, 1984, and 1995). Texas won the Red River game 48-45 last year, but as we know, eventually fell to Oklahoma when the stakes were higher in the Big 12 Championship.
This will be Oklahoma's biggest test yet, as they've rolled through their schedule so far: 49-31 over Houston, 70-14 vs South Dakota, 48-14 at UCLA, 55-16 vs Texas Tech, and 45-20 at Kansas. The Sooners are averaging 644 total yards per game, which is more than any team in college football at the moment. They're also putting up 53.4 points per game, with nobody but LSU scoring more on average. They land in the top-five for both passing yards per game: (355.4, 5th best) and rushing yards per game (288.4, 4th best). Jalen Hurts is expectedly performing at a Heisman level, throwing for 1,523 yards and 14 touchdowns, while tallying 499 rushing yards and seven TDs with his feet. The Sooners have allowed 19 points per game, but that seems to be of minimal concern with an offense playing this effectively.
Each week that passes, the Longhorns' week two loss to LSU looks more and more reasonable. I don't completely love the idea of good losses but this certainly was a good loss if you believe in them. Texas only lost by seven to what we now know as a very legitimate playoff contender. The Longhorns also nearly stumbled at home against Oklahoma State, but squeezed out a 36-30 win. Texas' other victories so far have been: 45-14 over Louisiana Tech, 48-13 vs Rice, and 42-31 at West Virginia. They've scored an average of 41.8 points per game (13th most nationwide) and the 19th most yards per game with 484. They certainly favor passing in their play calls, and QB Sam Ehlinger has been impressive so far. The junior has recorded 1,448 yards and 17 touchdowns, only throwing two picks. He's also averaging 4.6 yards per carry with 236 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. We've seen in the past that Ehlinger likes to use his legs in big games, as he's a very aggressive and physical runner. You always want to avoid an abundance of physicality with your starting QB, but those big plays are what Texas needs in games like these. The 'Horns are allowing an average of 26.6 points per game, which isn't particularly ideal. Sure, we can sit here and point out that LSU's 45 points are skewing that average, but the damage LSU's offense was able to do in Austin is a strong indicator of what Oklahoma's offense should be capable of at a neutral site against this defense.
Last year's Red River Showdown was a thriller, especially with the underdogs coming out with a victory. I'm always for the playoff picture being shaken up, and an upset by Texas would certainly do that. On the other hand, I've said since the preseason that Oklahoma is a playoff team, and I've consistently been a Jalen Hurts backer, but I'm just hoping for a good old fashioned Big 12 barn burner at the end of the day.
Other early games of interest:
- No. 3 Georgia vs South Carolina
- No. 23 Memphis @ Temple
The Afternoon Slot: No. 8 Wisconsin vs Michigan State
Look, I'm fully aware that this game only features one ranked team, and that at the same time there is a top-25 SEC matchup between No. 1 Alabama and No. 24 Texas A&M. But Texas A&M being ranked is a complete joke. They're 3-2. I know their two losses are to Clemson and Auburn, but that Auburn loss suddenly isn't much to hang your hat on. And I bet the same SEC homers who have completely written off Clemson after the close call with UNC, still call the 14 point loss to them a "good loss." The Aggies' three wins have come against Texas State, Lamar, and Arkansas (in a four point game). What part of that is impressive? Two "good losses" and three wins over bad football teams? If we want to look at things that way, then Wisconsin vs. Michigan State should be a top-25 matchup. The Spartans also obtain two of these mystical good losses: They fell 34-10 last week to Ohio State, who has been one of the more impressive teams in all of college football so far. They also lost 7-3 to Herm Edwards and Arizona State, who are now ranked No. 18 in the country. The same amount of losses and one more win than A&M, as Michigan State is 4-2 with wins over Tulsa, Western Michigan, Northwestern, and Indiana. If you don't think they should be bottom dwellers of the top-25, than you should agree that the same goes for Texas A&M. Whatever, rankings are stupid. 'Bama will wipe the floor with the Aggies in College Station and for all we know that'll move A&M up to No. 19. Onto the BIG 10.
The Badgers host Michigan State at Camp Randall this Saturday afternoon as 10.5 point favorites. The Spartans lead the all-time series 30-23. The two programs have only faced off once with Paul Chryst as Wisconsin's head coach; the Badgers beat Mark Dantonio's squad 30-6 in 2016 in East Lansing. The away team has won the last two meetings, as Michigan State won 16-13 in 2012.
No. 8 Wisconsin has looked absolutely dominant through every game this season, not including a closer-than-it-should-have-been 24-15 victory over Northwestern. The Badgers were absolutely rolling to start the game, yet allowed the Cats back in it. Northwestern was a few questionable plays calls away from making it even sketchier for Scon. The aforementioned dominance in the Badgers' other four games, however, is indisputable. Aside from the (still victorious) Northwestern blunder, Wisconsin has seriously taken care of business: 49-0 at USF, 61-0 vs Central Michigan, 35-14 vs Michigan, and 48-0 vs Kent State. The Badgers' 43.4 points per game ranks as the 11th most, and their 5.3 points allowed per game leads the nation. Running back Jonathan Taylor continues to be one of college football's premiere players; he's notched 745 rushing yards (tied with BC's AJ Dillon for third most), 12 touchdowns (tied for second most with SMU's Xavier Jones), and is averaging 7.2 yards per carry. He's also reeled in twelve catches for 114 yards and four touchdowns so far.
The Spartans have allowed an average of 18.2 points per game, with only 20 teams allowing fewer this year. The defense looked a bit more solid through the first four games, giving up just a touchdown to Tulsa, 17 points to Western Michigan, ten points to Arizona State, and ten points to Northwestern. Not too shabby. But then in the last two weeks, the Spartans have allowed 31 points to Indiana, followed by a 34 point performance by Ohio State. 34 points is a lot, but that's actually the Buckeyes' lowest score so far this year (second lowest was 42 vs Cincinnati), so there's a little bit of value there. But letting Indiana put up 31 on you is certainly concerning. Perhaps it was simply an off day. Michigan State has totaled 19 sacks this season (tied for 9th most) and seven interceptions (tenth most). They've allowed an average of 199.3 yards per game through the air, and have only allowed an average of 100.3 rushing yards (22nd best). That's great and all, but best of luck trying to stop Jonathan Taylor and the massive push of this offensive line. On offense, the Spartans have scored an average of 27.8 points per game, ranking only 75th in the country. Michigan State has been more efficient through the air this year, as Brian Lewerke has thrown for 1,543 yards (11th most in the country) and eleven touchdowns, completing 58.5% of his passes. Five different targets have contributed to his eleven TD passes.
Other afternoon games of interest:
- No. 1 Alabama @ No. 24 Texas A&M
- No. 2 Clemson vs Florida State
- No. 18 Arizona State vs Washington State
The Night Slot: No. 5 LSU vs No. 7 Florida
It was just a week ago that I highly doubted the Gators, even on their home field in Gainesville, only for them to go on and beat Auburn 24-13 (while wearing some excellent uniforms). I yapped all about the Gators not beating anybody all that impressive, playing with their backup QB, not deserving a top-ten spot, etc. Yet here we are a week later; the Gators took the No. 7 spot away from Auburn and boast a 6-0 record. And here I am again, absolutely and completely disregarding them as a legitimate threat. Florida enters Saturday night's game as 13.5 point underdogs, and understandably so. Death Valley is going to be absolute chaos under the lights, and College GameDay will be on campus. The atmosphere in Baton Rouge should be simply remarkable.
Joe Burrow, for now, is putting on a legitimate Heisman campaign this season: he has thrown for 1,864 yards (only Washington State's QB has more), 22 touchdowns (only Tua has more), and a mere three interceptions. No quarterback in the country has a higher completion percentage than Burrow's 78.4. The Tigers' offense has not scored fewer than 42 points this season. They lead the nation with 54.6 points per game. On defense, they've allowed 19.8 points per game, which much like Oklahoma (19 points allowed per game) isn't all that concerning when you can dismantle opposing defenses at will.
Yes, the Gators defense has been outstanding throughout their six victories. They've held their opponents to 9.5 points per game, the fifth fewest of any team. But come on, their biggest threat being Bo Nix in the Swamp is incomparable to Burrow and this LSU offense in Death Valley. Burrow's numbers will probably be stunted a bit by this defensive unit, but completely shutting him down seems to be too outrageous of a feat. Florida has proven me wrong so far this season; they're better than I initially gave them credit for and I'm ready to admit that. But I will eat my hat in one bite with no water to wash it down if Kyle Trask and the Gators come out of Saturday night with more points than Coach Orgeron's Tigers. I will be livid if the band doesn't play "Neck" for this game. Absolutely livid.
Other night games of interest:
- No. 9 Notre Dame vs USC
- No. 10 Penn State @ No. 17 Iowa
- No. 14 Boise State vs Hawaii
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