Last week I said that the top-six, in my mind, were the only certified playoff contenders. Well, the Wisconsin Badgers no longer fit the criteria of that group, being neither in the top six or a contender, after losing to Illinois on a last-second field goal as 31 point favorites. There's nothing excusable about any of that. The five others (Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, and Oklahoma) all remain to be the favorites.
I also mentioned that last week Penn State, who has since taken over Wisconsin's No. 6 spot, seems like a good team, but hadn't impressed me to the point of consideration for playoff contention. The Nittany Lions are coming off of a solid 28-21 home win under the lights against Michigan. I can't disparage a conference win over a ranked conference team. But Michigan is not a good football team and that's hopefully something that we can all agree on. I'm not even claiming that Penn State is a bunch of frauds or anything, I just can't bring myself to firmly believe in them as a threat to the nation's top teams. Yet, at least.
There are many questions surrounding the expectancy of Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's return from ankle surgery. The other day, Nick Saban claimed there is "no real timeline" for when Tua will be back in action. In his place will be sophomore Mac Jones, a native of Jacksonville, FL. Jones has gotten on the field in six of Alabama's seven victories, totaling 237 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. Luckily for 'Bama, Jones will be facing off against Arkansas on Saturday, and then they have a bye before hosting LSU, which should be one of the best games all season. However, Tua's absence obviously would radically modify that evening's expectations. Hopefully for everyone's sake though (other than LSU), Tua will be back for that Nov. 9 matchup with Joe Burrow and the Tigers.
Speaking of the SEC, nowadays it's been assumed that Alabama and Georgia will meet for the conference championship game, with recency bias being a huge cause of that. That's still a very likely outcome, but for the sake of variety and shaking things up, we should all be rooting for another likely outcome: LSU vs Florida in the SEC Championship, which has never happened before. I'd be absolutely, positively stunned if we see a B1G Championship without Ohio State, Clemson not playing for the ACC title, and the Big 12 Championship being played without Oklahoma on the field. Those all seem like guarantees. But the SEC still has potential for parity. As I had mentioned, LSU and Alabama go at it on Nov. 9, while No. 10 Georgia and No. 7 Florida play each other on Nov. 2 in Gainesville.
Looking at the top-25 as a whole: the BIG 10 has the most currently ranked teams in the country with six: No. 3 Ohio State, No. 6 Penn State, No. 13 Wisconsin, No. 17 undefeated Minnesota, No. 19 Michigan, and No. 20 Iowa. The SEC has the second-most with five, and all five of those land in the top-ten: No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 LSU, No. 7 Florida, No. 9 Auburn, and No. 10 Georgia. The Big 12 has four, with No. 5 Oklahoma, No. 14 Baylor (7-0), No. 15 Texas, and No. 23 Iowa State. Our West Coast brethren in Pac 12 have three ranked teams: No. 11 Oregon, No. 12 Utah, and No. 24 Arizona State. The only ranked ACC team other than No. 4 Clemson is No. 25 Wake Forest. We'll see how long the Demon Deacons can last in the rankings. The remaining of the 25 spots are occupied by: Independent Notre Dame at No. 9, AAC members No. 16 SMU (7-0) and No. 18 Cincinnati, No. 21 App State (6-0) representing the Sun Belt, and the No. 22 Boise State out of the Mountain west.
Games to watch:
Early game: No. 13 Wisconsin @ No. 3 Ohio State
This would have been much more of a blockbuster had the Badgers not completely choked against Lovie Smith's Fighting Illini, as we should have had two undefeated squads in a top-ten matchup. Now, Wisconsin losing doesn't automatically make them a bad football team. In the games they've won, they've absolutely dominated. Their defensive numbers had been absolutely insane, and Jonathan Taylor has been one of the best running backs in the country. But getting upset in embarrassing fashion really dampens all of those accomplishments. Like I said, that loss won't cause the Badgers to revert to a Pop Warner team, causing them to endure the rest of the season without a win. But Ohio State has been performing at an elite level through seven games, and Wisconsin hasn't beaten them since 2010. Sconnie sure did need some momentum heading into Columbus this weekend, which they had plenty of, until it all just simply dissolved in Champaign last Saturday.
Both of these defenses have allowed the two fewest points per game of any team: Wisconsin with 7.6 and Ohio State with 8. They also hold the top two spots for yards allowed per game: the Badgers with 193.9 and the Buckeyes with 229. On the offensive side of the ball, Ohio State is far more dynamic and threatening. Sure, the Badgers have scored the 12th most points per game with 39.7 and have Jonathan Taylor as a running back, but the Buckeyes offense is far more multidimensional. Quarterback Justin Fields is a legitimate Heisman hopeful who has thrown for 1,492 yards, 22 touchdowns, and just one interception. Fields has also rushed for 291 yards and eight touchdowns. Also statistically speaking, Ohio State's running back JK Dobbins has been nearly as efficient as Jonathan Taylor; his seven rushing TDs are less than half of Taylor's, but Dobbins is averaging a full yard more per carry than Taylor, bringing his 947 rushing yards just ten yards short of the Badgers' running back. And Dobbins has a mobile quarterback to take some of the carries as well. In the passing game, Dobbins has caught ten balls for 74 yards and two touchdowns, while Taylor has 16 receptions for 138 yards and four touchdowns. The Buckeyes are currently favored by 14 points.
Afternoon game: No. 9 Auburn @ No. 2 LSU
As remarkable as LSU has looked so far, they still have to take care of some serious business. It'd be easy to look ahead to the Alabama game in a few weeks, but that'd undoubtedly be detrimental to the preparation of their immediate challenge: the No. 9 Auburn Tigers. Auburn definitely tends to get overlooked a bit lately with 'Bama and LSU (and even Florida) hogging all of the spotlight. Auburn's only loss came on the road, coming up short 24-13 to against Florida. Florida's only loss this season was to LSU, 42-28. Can Auburn complete the cycle of of these three and dish LSU its only loss?
LSU has put up an average of 50.1 points per game, while allowing 20. Auburn has been scoring an average of 36.3 points per game, and allowing onyx 17.1. The quarterback comparison in this one is pretty wild; the Heisman favorite (29) has nearly three times as many touchdown passes as the true freshman (11). Despite that, and Burrow throwing the ball a total of 49 more times, Bo Nix still has thrown two more interceptions than Burrow. Burrow's 2,484 yards tower over Bo's 1,301. But that doesn't mean these teams have nothing in common other than the Tiger mascot: their rushing leaders are nearly identical in terms of numbers. Auburn's JaTarvious Whitlow has ran the ball 110 times for 544 yards (4.9 average) and seven touchdowns. LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire has tallied 89 rushes for 547 yards (6.1 average) and seven touchdowns. Clyde has done it on fewer carries than Whitlow, but those numbers are eerily similar. Even more comparable than the running backs are the stats regarding yards allowed by these two defenses: Auburn has allowed 319 total yards per game (224.7 passing yards and 94.3 rushing yards), and LSU has allowed an average of 319.4 (226.1 passing and 93.3 rushing). LSU is favored by 11 at home on Saturday.
Night game: No. 8 Notre Dame @ No. 19 Michigan
A nice rejuvenation of a classic Midwest rivalry game, featuring two ranked teams under the lights in the Big House. Top tier aesthetics with both uniforms. Those are some excellent assets of this game, without a doubt. This will be the 43rd meeting between the two programs, with Michigan winning 24 times, Notre Dame winning 17, and one tie. But to me, the most intriguing aspect is the continuing failure of Jim Harbaugh's tenure at his alma mater. I can't speak for the Michigan AD but Harbaugh deserves to be coaching for his job right now. His consistent inability to win big games is truly remarkable to me. He finally has his own recruits to fit his system that was supposed to revitalize the Michigan football tradition (another reminder that his most impressive season was with Brady Hoke's eventual NFL recruits). Yet here we are, in year five, and Harbaugh has barely done anything praiseworthy. It's been laughable. As I write this, Notre Dame and Michigan is a pick 'em. Notre Dame is a more talented team, but maybe the bright lights at home, and the echoes of firing Harbaugh, will light a fire under this team, allowing them to outperform the Irish. If Michigan comes up short in this one and keeps Jim Harbaugh as their head coach, they've simply lowered their standards to the acceptance of mediocrity.
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