Well, not that the previous years of the CFP semifinal have really provided many nail biters. The closest game in the round-of-four was in the playoff's inaugural 1 vs. 4 matchup, in which Cardale Jones and Ohio State upset top-ranked Alabama 42-35. The other five semifinal games in the playoff's history have been decided by no fewer than 17 points.
The long gap between conference championship weekend and the playoff keeps everyone more than eager and anxious. It also diminishes a lot of the momentum that teams had built up throughout the journey of the regular season. This means that the playoff games really come down to coaching and depth. I mean, look at the three coaches who have won the CFP: Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, and Dabo Swinney. The three best coaches in the country, without a doubt. And lucky for us, we get to see two thirds of that top tier coach against each other on January 1st.
No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Alabama
Part three of the Alabama vs. Clemson saga is the final four's headline matchup, as the Tide and Tigers have split the last two National Championships. So naturally, this game has the aura of a championship around it. And when it's all said and done, I strongly believe the winner of this game will go on to be the champion of the College Football Playoff. These are the two deepest and best-coached teams in the country.
Alabama has received plenty of underwhelmed reviews from spectators this season, with many thinking the Crimson Tide just doesn't have the typical "it" factor this year that we are so used to seeing. That's somewhat understandable, seeing as they haven't really beat any entirely impressive opponents. Squeaking by Mississippi State by seven points doesn't really help their stock, and neither does getting rolled by Auburn in a 26-14 loss. But at the same time, it's a Nick Saban coached Alabama team. It's tough to truly, genuinely doubt them.
I think the bar has been set so high for Alabama after such an impressive run of dominance, that even when they're truly one of the best four teams in the country, it's still easy to feel unimpressed. But Saban and his boys don't care if we're impressed by them or not. In fact, I'm sure they love feeling a sense of external doubt. If anything, that might help them play with some more fire on top of their ridiculous talent and skill.
Much like expectations being sky-high for 'Bama year in and year out, Clemson quarterbacks for the next few generations will always have the massive shoes of Deshaun Watson to fill. A quarterback who led the team to its first National Championship victory since 1981. A quarterback who was drafted first round in the NFL. A quarterback who would likely have won Offensive Rookie of the Year until he tore his ACL.
I think the superstardom of Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant is largely overshadowed by his predecessor's outrageous résumé. He's certainly not Deshaun Watson, but he's a freak athlete who is surrounded by a more complete team than Watson was. I firmly believe the Tigers are still a National Champion-caliber team, but then again so is Alabama. I think this is Clemson's last year before they fully enter Alabama's territory of neutral fans wanting to see them lose to mix things up.
I'm really hoping we don't see any key injuries in the third part of this recent rivalry. In Part One, we saw Clemson's shutdown corner Mackensie Alexander suffer a hamstring injury on, if a recall correctly, only the second play of the game. Now I don't know if the end result would have changed had Alexander stayed healthy, but 'Bama did rely on their passing game much more than expected for the remainder of that close battle. Again, maybe 'Bama still would have won. Maybe Clemson would have won, it doesn't matter. It's in the past. But I can tell you pretty damn confidently that Clemson would not have won Part Two if Alabama running back Bo Scarbrough didn't get hurt. He was absolutely rolling over Clemson's defense. But hey, injuries are part of the game. Let's just hope we don't have to see any in Part Three. Safety first, then teamwork.
Alabama is favorited in this game by three points, which I don't find entirely shocking. It's a very fair line and despite being the "last team in" for this year's playoff, they've earned their stripes throughout the years. Seed number is irrelevant when it comes to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the postseason. They're the favorites to win year in, and year out.
Having said that, I still think Clemson will come out on top. It will undoubtedly live up to the hype, just as the other two battles between the Tigers and Tide. This will likely end up being the game of the year. I just think I'm leaning with Clemson because they've wow'd me a little more throughout the season. But hey, maybe that's just expecting too much out of 'Bama. But like I said earlier, despite the outcome of this game, I like the winner as the eventual champion.
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Oklahoma
It really speaks volumes to Clemson and Alabama that the SEC Champion taking on the Heisman winner isn't the headline game. The Georgia Bulldogs face-off against Baker Mayfield and the Oklahoma Sooners on Monday at 5 p.m. Eastern Time. The Dawgs are favored by two points over the Big 12 Champs.
To be honest, I was a little surprised to see such a minuscule spread in this game. I don't think it will be a blowout, but I think Georgia is more than two points better than Oklahoma. This matchup is a high-powered offense led by a star QB, going up against a team that can shut you down on defense and run it down your throat. I like the Bulldogs in this one because they're simply a more complete unit than the Sooners.
Oklahoma's offense this season has been remarkable; there's absolutely no doubt about that. They have averaged 44.9 points per game, which is the fourth most in the entire country. Baker Mayfield has thrown for the second most touchdowns this year (41) and the second most passing yards (4,340). And not that the Sooners' first choice is keeping it on the ground, but they still have recorded an average of 215.9 rushing yards per game, which is the 27th best in the country.
Much like the rest of their conference, Oklahoma flaunts a prime offense which is held back by a subpar defense. This year's Oklahoma defense has impressed me more than in past seasons, and it's not like they're bottom of the barrel. But when you're going up against the three best teams in the nation, you need more than an "okay" defense. The Sooners have allowed 25 points per game and 385 yards per game. Georgia has been heavily reliant on their star running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, and the Sooners D has allowed an average of 144.2 rushing yards per game.
Chubb and Michel should be expected to do the brunt of the work for the Dawgs on Monday. Chubb is averaging 90.3 yards per game and has totaled 13 rushing touchdowns. In Georgia's first go-around with Auburn, Chubb was limited to only 27 yards on the ground. However, he made up for that in the SEC Championship by putting up 77 yards. His best game of the year was against Kentucky, where he ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Sony Michel has matched Chubb's 13 rushing touchdowns on the year, and his averaging 7.2 yards per carry (Chubb is averaging 6.2 yards per carry). To put it simply, this running back duo is lethal, and I don't trust the Oklahoma defense to stop them.
Some people may find it difficult to count out college football's most outstanding player, Baker Mayfield. There's actually a pretty decent rate of Heisman winners going on to win the National Championship, as it's happened five times since 2004: Derrick Henry in 2015, Jameis Winston in 2013, Cam Newton in 2010, Mark Ingram in 2009, and Matt Leinart in 2004. That narrative is obviously a least partially impacted by the CFP being introduced.
Baker Mayfield was such a clear and obvious choice for the Heisman, as he's extremely talented to an outlandish level. But as I mentioned earlier, winning playoff games requires depth and great coaching. Head Coach Lincoln Riley has done a tremendous job in his first year, that goes without saying. But his squad lacks the depth that the other three teams have. And it's not every day that the Sooners face-off against a defense of Georgia's caliber. The Bulldogs have only allowed 13.2 points per game, the fourth-fewest in the country. They've also only allowed an average 158.3 passing yards per game, the second-fewest in the country. Mayfield and the Sooners won't be completely shut down, but the Bulldogs aren't a cupcake Big 12 defense.
I believe we'll be seeing a Clemson vs. Georgia National Championship, although any combination of these four teams would be pretty awesome. So buckle up everybody, and have a great start to 2018.
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