Bowl season is here, and with it comes your annual slate of toilet bowl matchups between non-Power Five teams, the type of games that even the average college football gambling degenerate like me looks at and goes "yeeeesh I don't know about that one." We'll get into previewing the playoff and all of the major/Power Five vs. Power Five matchups later this month, but today, we're going to talk about the games that are the equivalent of a tipped over porter-potty. Let's do it.
*Flanny is not liable for your dumb degenerate ass losing money on some wild college football bet. If these picks do not pan out don't get mad, get help, at the National Problem Gambling Hotline (1-800-522-4700) and delete Bovada off of your freaking phone, idiot.
Cure Bowl (12/16)
Georgia State (6-5) vs. Western Kentucky (6-6)
The NCAA decided to begin bowl season by banging out five of these suckers on day-one, and the Cure Bowl matchup between Georgia State and Western Kentucky certainly is not the prize of the afternoon. Western Kentucky finished the season losers of four of their last five and one of their six losses on the year came to an absolutely horrible Illinois team that finished 2-10. Georgia State, meanwhile, finished the season on a two-game losing streak and the lowlight of their season came in the form of a 56-0 b****-smacking at the hands of Penn State. Georgia State has had trouble scoring this season, as the Panthers were held to 14-or-fewer points four times. Western Kentucky gets it done thanks to their far-superior offense led by quarterback Mike White (3,826 yards, 24 touchdowns) but this is a game that I'd highly recommend avoiding on the betting front.
Pick: Western Kentucky 33-16
Celebration Bowl (12/16)
North Carolina A&T (12-1) vs. Grambling State (11-2)
I'm not even sure what to call this one. Technically it's a bowl game but neither team is a legitimate member of the FBS. Both offenses hold the ability to score 30+ points but history says this one may be pretty low-scoring (10-9 Grambling in 2016 Celebration Bowl). I'll take North Carolina A&T given their ability to hang around better and actually beat an FBS team this season (39-36 win over Kent State) while Grambling State fell 31-21 to Arizona and 43-14 to Tulane. I got nothing else other than that.
Pick: NC A&T 31-26
New Orleans Bowl (12/16)
Troy (10-2) vs. North Texas (9-4)
Considering where these two teams finished in their respective conferences, this could arguably be the best matchup out of all the non-Power Five toilet bowls. Troy, as many remember, knocked off LSU 24-21 in week-five for their biggest win in program history and finished the season on a six-game win streak, earning themselves a share of the Sun Belt crown with Appalachian State. North Texas rebounded from a 1-2 start and finished the season on a five-game win streak before falling to Florida Atlantic in the Conference USA title game. Despite playing in an offensive-friendly dome, these two defenses should hold one another in check, resulting in a pretty medium-ranged scoring affair. Jordan Chunn still runs wild for the Trojans.
Pick: Troy 27-20
New Mexico Bowl (12/16)
Colorado State (7-5) vs. Marshall (7-5)
Why the NCAA decides to hold a bowl game in New Mexico in the dead of winter every year is beyond me, but nevertheless, this game features two teams capable of scoring a lot of points. Colorado State scored 40-or-more points five times this season and reached 50 three times. The Rams will rely heavily on star wideout Michael Gallup (94 receptions, 1,345 yards, seven touchdowns) and Colorado State should have its way against a Marshall team that stumbled to the finish by losing four of five.
Pick: Colorado State 37-24
Camellia Bowl (12/16)
Arkansas State (7-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (6-6)
Middle Tennessee is no slouch, as the Blue Raiders defeated a Syracuse team that caused a lot of problems within the ACC this season (beat Clemson, almost beat Miami). However, while MTSU did score 30-or-more points in each of their final four games, I don't think they have the consistency on offense to keep up with Arkansas State. The front-seven of the Red Wolves are just as good, if not better, than some Power Five times, highlighted by former Alabama defensive tackle Dee Liner. This game lives and dies with Arkansas State quarterback Justice Hansen, who comes in after throwing for 400+ yards in back-to-back games and multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season. However, Hansen has thrown three-or-more interceptions three times this season. I think we get to see the good side of Hansen in the Camellia Bowl, and Arkansas State caps off its season with a win after pissing away their regular season finale against Troy (32-25 loss).
Pick: Arkansas State 36-26
Boca Raton Bowl (12/19)
Florida Atlantic (10-3) vs. Akron (7-6)
This game is just a pure mismatch. Lane Kiffin's FAU Owls rolled to the finish line in 2017 and enter the Boca Raton Bowl winners of nine straight and sport a Conference USA title belt around their waist. Akron was the best mediocre team in an extremely bad MAC-East Division and surrendered 45 points to Toledo in the conference title game. It's hard to imagine the Zips defense being able to withstand an Owl offense that scored 30-or-more points in each of its final 11 games and reached 50+points three times. FAU wins handily behind a big day from running back Devin Singletary and Lane Kiffin leaves to go coach at either Florida State, UCF, or Tennessee.
Pick: Florida Atlantic 49-17
Frisco Bowl (12/20)
SMU (7-5) vs. Louisiana Tech (6-6)
SMU averaged 36.75 points during their final four games. The only problem is that the Mustangs lost three of them, including a 66-45 defeat to Memphis. AKA, SMU's defense is horrendous. Quarterback Ben Hicks (3,442 yards, 32 touchdowns), thousand-yard rusher Xavier Jones along with wideouts Trey Quinn (106 receptions, 1,191 yards, 12 touchdowns) and Courtland Sutton (62 receptions, 1017 yards, 12 touchdowns) highlight SMU's potent offense. Louisiana Tech's strength is its defense, which held the likes of South Carolina, South Alabama, and UTSA to under 20 points, but were gashed by Mississippi State (57 points) and Florida Atlantic (48). SMU isn't quite on the same offensive level as a Mississippi State or Florida Atlantic, but the Mustangs should be able to score a heavy amount of points. Tech quarterback J'Mar Smith needs to have a big day in order for the Bulldogs to have any sort of chance, and even if he performs well, I still think SMU's offense is too much to handle.
Pick: SMU 41-21
Gasparilla Bowl (12/21)
Temple (6-6) vs. Florida International (8-4)
Temple earned bowl eligibility by winning three of its final four. FIU was pretty hot-and-cold throughout the season as its offense struggled out of the gate, but the Golden Panthers didn't lose to UConn like Temple did, so, therefore, it is impossible me to pick the Owls and feel good about myself. FIU also gets the advantage of playing in their home state. Butch Davis and company get the job done, but it's close and points are scarce.
Florida International 19-13
Potato Bowl (12/21)
Wyoming (7-5) vs. Central Michigan (8-4)
Whoever decided Boise, Idaho was a good location for a bowl game is an absolute maniac. Until the NCAA puts a bowl game in the yard of a Siberian gulag (which still might be better), the Potato Bowl will always reign as the king of toilet bowls. Anyways, this game lives and dies with the health of Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, who's missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. Even if healthy, Allen may pull a Christian McCaffrey or Leonard Fournette-like move and sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft. However, Allen hasn't exactly lit it up this season (1,658 yards, 13 touchdowns, six INT's) the way many projected, so he may want to consider putting on the Cowboy jersey one final time to try and improve his draft stock. Nevertheless, even if Allen suits up, I still like Central Michigan, who finished the regular season with five straight wins and scored an average of 41.2 points-per-game during that span. Wyoming's defense is pretty legit, though, as the Cowboys surrendered less than 20 points in four of their final five contests.
Pick: Central Michigan 28-23
Bahamas Bowl (12/21)
UAB (8-4) vs. Ohio (8-4)
Central Michigan beat Ohio 26-23 in the regular season, held the same record at 8-4 and a better conference record than the Bobcats at 6-2, yet the big payoff for the Chippewas was a trip to the frigid Potato Bowl while Ohio enjoys a week in paradise. Good call by the NCAA here rewarding failure. Anyways, UAB to me is the favorite in this game purely based off of their 25th ranked run defense. Ohio's ground game, highlighted by quarterback Nathan Rourke (134 carries, 882 yards, 21 touchdowns) matched up against UAB's front-seven is going to be the determining factor. If UAB is able to shut down the run game in the early going and force Rourke to drop back and pass, it could be a long day for the Bobcats, who's top receiver mustered just 32 receptions for 525 yards this season in Papi White.
Pick: UAB 27-10
Armed Forces Bowl (12/23)
Army (8-3) vs. San Diego State (10-2)
Two of nation's top rushing attacks square off and as San Diego State running back Rashaad Penny and his 2,000 yards match up against Army's always-tricky option attack. The Black Knights have been a fun story this season, winning eight games for the first time in over two decades. I just don't think the Army defense is capable of handling the never-ending physical pounding that the Aztecs have become known for with Penny touching the rock 35 times a game.
Pick: San Diego State 26-14
Dollar General Bowl (12/23)
Toledo (11-2) vs. Appalachian State (8-4)
This could sneakily be an extremely entertaining matchup as two of the better offenses in the group-of-five square off. Toledo scored its way to a MAC title behind the play of quarterback Logan Woodside (3,758 yards, 28 touchdowns) and presents an extremely difficult matchup for Appalachian State's defense. The Mountaineer offense makes it a game against Toledo's iffy defense, but the Rockets get it done. Hammer the over.
Pick: Toledo 41-30
Hawai'i Bowl (12/24)
Houston (7-4) vs. Fresno State (9-4)
If you're the type who appreciates stout defensive play and enjoys watching quarterbacks get ransacked, this is the game for you. In what will likely be Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver's final game before declaring for the NFL Draft (where he'll 100% be a first or second-round pick), expect the sophomore to have a HUGE day against Fresno State's non-existent passing attack. Meanwhile, I expect Fresno State to make life a bit hard for Houston's offense, but the Cougars definitely hold the edge as far as all-around consistency and skill on the offensive side of the ball. Fresno State is trending in the right direction but Houston knocks them down to Earth.
Pick: Houston 29-16
Arizona Bowl (12/29)
Utah State (6-6) vs. New Mexico State (6-6)
New Mexico State is in a bowl game for the first time since 1960. Yes, you read that correctly, it's actually been 57 years since New Mexico State played a football game past the midway point of December, almost too hard to imagine. Utah State might be the favorite on paper, but New Mexico State's defense enters after having not allowed 20 points in either of their final two games. Expect a big day out of both quarterback Tyler Rogers (3,825 yards, 26 touchdowns) and wideout Jaleel Scott (73 receptions, 1,042 yards, eight touchdowns) as the Aggies pull off a minor upset.
Pick: New Mexico State 24-19
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