Thursday, October 20, 2016

The Bizarro 2016 Playoff Red Sox

All I ever wanted this summer was a baseball season, to have meaningful games to watch in August and September, and maybe, just maybe, in October.

Technically speaking, the Red Sox did just that, with plenty of meaningful games in the season's home stretch. They even won 11 games in a row at one point, right before they lost eight of their final nine (including the postseason). Terry Francona got fired for a slightly more elongated 7-20 stretch in 2011, though one could argue this was equally horrendous and certainly more inexcusable.

Lots of blame to go around over at Fenway, with truly no one player, coach or executive immune from criticism. This includes David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, two guys who've been around the block in October a few times; they were two of four Red Sox regulars who hit under .200 in the series vs. Cleveland (Jackie Bradley and Sandy Leon the others).

The quick flameout by the Sox was frustrating on a number of levels, constructed on two tiers.

The first one is somewhat subjective. You can't take away the 2013 World Series title...but if you could, the Red Sox haven't won a playoff game since Game 6 of the 2008 ALCS. Swept in 2009 and 2016, while they were absent every other year in between (again, 2013 aside).

The second tier is definitely bound by subjectivity, but at the onset of the postseason, you couldn't help but notice just how many former Red Sox players (or coaches and executives, for that matter) were scattered about the tournament.

It's inevitable for players to move on, what with free agency and trades, but it's really an abnormal amount of former Red Sox greats in the 2016 postseason.

So that meant only one thing: lineup time, similar to the Olympic baseball construction a few months back.

A few rules and quirks: 1) I included players even from teams that have been eliminated. I wish I'd thought of this before now, but it's also somewhat telling that the three teams remaining -- the Cleveland Indians, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers -- are the most represented anyways.
And 2) I had to do a little bit of shifting position wise, but nothing as absurd as, say, Hanley Ramirez playing outfield.

It's almost sad how little of a reach this is. You'll see the middle infield might not exactly be the Derek Jeter-Robinson Cano connection, but this would be a legitimate major league starting lineup, with four starting pitchers and even a few relievers. And a manager. And a general manager.

So consider it all, while realizing your worst fear and/or darkest, most twisted fantasy as a Red Sox fan nears reality: Tito vs. Theo for all the marbles. I've included a "Hurt Meter" for each member of the roster, to indicate just how much it hurts to see said person in another uniform (1-hit your funny bone to 10-paper cut between your toes).


C-David Ross
Current team: Chicago Cubs
Years in Boston: 2008; 2013-14
Hurt Meter: 1

It's true, Ross had two stints in Boston, making only nine plate appearances in 2008 in his audition to fill Doug Mirabelli's shoes as Tim Wakefield's sidekick. Things were a little more memorable upon his return, but since he left again, he's hit just a clip above the Mendoza line (.203) with the Cubs.


1B-Anthony Rizzo
Current team: Chicago Cubs
Years in Boston: 2007-2010 (minors only)
Hurt Meter: 6

Anthony Rizzo (and others) for Adrian Gonzalez really wasn't that bad a trade at the time. That's a fact.

Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner. Now THAT is a bad trade, then, now and forever.

In the Padres' defense, Rizzo hit only one home run in 153 plate appearances for San Diego in 2011 after coming over in the Gonzalez deal. But it wasn't like he was performing that way on a contending team; the Padres' lack of patience with Rizzo is dumbfounding and the most shocking move in San Diego since the man punted Baxter.

The reality is that 2013 probably doesn't happen without the Gonzalez for Rizzo swap -- even though neither player was on the roster. How do other years shake out if Rizzo had stayed in Boston? That's reminiscent of the Jeff Bagwell question in the '90s, but at least Rizzo netted more of a return than Larry Andersen.


2B-Kelly Johnson
Current team: New York Mets
Years in Boston: 2014
Hurt Meter: 0

I could have gone Stephen Drew on the Nationals, but I didn't. Walter White could have saved Jane, but he didn't. Life goes on.


3B-Adrian Beltre
Current team: Texas Rangers
Years in Boston: 2010
Hurt Meter: 6

The nerd community has been banging the drum for years that Beltre is not only a Hall of Famer, but a first ballot one at that. Took awhile for me to come around but I've gotta say, I now agree. Get out of my face with WAR, but Beltre's counting stats are more than enough: 445 home runs, 2,942 hits, 591 doubles (19th all-time, and he could move into the top 10 -- ahead of David Ortiz -- by the end of next season).

So why doesn't this hurt more?

The reason I was lukewarm on Beltre's hall credentials was his Seattle years, where he was average at best for many of those years. Throw out 2004 for the Dodgers, same thing.

I won't bore you with all the numbers, just go to his baseball reference page. But prior to his arrival in Texas for 2011, his year with the Red Sox was the second-best of his then 13-year career by almost any measure. Screamed of another contract year (he was hurt in 2009 with Seattle), followed by another "he fooled me, Jerry!" moment/half-decade.


SS-Michael Martinez
Current team: Cleveland Indians
Years in Boston: 2016
Hurt Meter: 0

The Red Sox purchased Martinez's contract from the Indians on July 8. He went 1-for-6 with a walk before the Tribe grabbed him back off waivers on Aug. 4. Ramon's place as the No. 2 Martinez to ever wear a Red Sox jersey remains safe.


OF-Josh Reddick
Current team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Years in Boston: 2009-2011
Hurt Meter: 2

Reddick hit 32 home runs in his first full season as a big leaguer in Oakland (2012) and has hit 54 since. Nice player, but nothing to necessarily lose sleep over.


OF-Coco Crisp
Current team: Cleveland Indians
Years in Boston: 2006-2008
Hurt Meter: 3

I mean, he directly hurt the Red Sox this postseason. So that hurt, more so in the reminder it served that Drew Pomeranz is gonna be a thing moving forward, but hurt nonetheless.

Kudos to Coco for carving out a pretty solid career post-Boston, where he got Wally Pipped by Jacoby Ellsbury during the postseason run in '07.

Three quick things on Ellsbury: A) notice he's not on this list, because the Yankees missed the playoffs B) in the 2008 ALCS, Crisp went 9-for-20 while Ellsbury went 0-for-14 C) his contract is so bad (four years, almost $90 million still to go) I probably would've left him off anyways.


OF-Adrian Gonzalez
Current team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Years in Boston: 2011-2012
Hurt Meter: 5

*Gonzalez has played a little outfield for both the Red Sox and Dodgers. Work with me.

There's not a single player left on the Red Sox from the Gonzalez/Beckett/Crawford/Nick Punto(!) salary dump, while Gonzo is the lone player left on the Dodgers side of the trade. The Red Sox won the World Series 14 months after shedding the dead weight; LA still hasn't even been to the Fall Classic. Call me crazy, call me insane, call me what you will...but I think I'm okay with Hanley Ramirez being the first baseman here over Gonzalez?

The only way this one will hurt is if the Dodgers wind up winning it all this year and he plays a major role. Great base running by Gonzalez last night to really help his team (he was safe but replay can kick rocks).

Warrants mentioning, Gonzalez (a former No. 1 overall pick, then in the minors) was traded by the Marlins to the Rangers at the deadline way back in 2003 for another former Red Sox great/machete safety spokesman Ugueth Urbina. The Marlins went on to win the World Series.


DH-Mike Napoli
Current team: Cleveland Indians
Years in Boston: 2013-2015
Hurt Meter: 4

Napoli had one fewer home run this year (34) than he did in 2014 and 2015 combined (35).

Again, this isn't so much on the Red Sox getting rid of him; he really didn't have much value when he was a post-waiver deadline deal last August. But Texas has now let Napoli walk in free agency twice, after both 2012 and last season.


SP-Jon Lester
Current team: Chicago Cubs
Years in Boston: 2006-2014
Hurt Meter: 10

Jon Lester career postseason: 7-6, 2.57 ERA
David Price career postseason: 2-8, 5.54 ERA

Lester 2016 playoffs: 1-0, 0.64 ERA (14 innings)
Price 2016 playoffs: 0-1, 13.50 ERA (3 1/3 innings)

Jon Lester contract: six years, $156 million (four, $104 million remaining)
David Price contract: seven years, $217 million (six, $186 million remaining)

At Price's introductory press conference, John Henry mentioned other great aces in recent Red Sox history, such as Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, with Jon Lester conspicuously absent.

Is Jon Lester a Hall of Famer? Probably not. Did he deserve to have his No. 31 issued a year after his departure, to Alejandro de Aza and then Drew freaking Pomeranz? Considering Roger Clemens' No. 21 still hasn't been issued over 20 years after he left over contract squabbles (and a so-so 3.92 postseason ERA in Boston), I'd say no. But Larry Lucchino got that ball rolling with an insulting four year, $70 million offer in the spring of 2014.

Game 5 of the NLCS is tonight and aside from Madison Bumgarner there's not an active pitcher I'd want going for my team more than Jon Lester. That includes his opponent tonight, Clayton Kershaw.

This one more than hurts. This one straight up stings.


SP-John Lackey
Current team: Chicago Cubs
Years in Boston: 2010-2014
Hurt Meter: 6

The poker match that never was: Lackey vs. the Red Sox front office, seeing who would blink first when it came to Lackey playing in 2015 for the league minimum, as negotiated into his deal with Boston when he first signed in 2010.

We'll never know if it was a bluff of Lackey's part, but we do know that he did, in fact, pitch below poverty level at $507,500 for St. Louis in 2015 before signing with the Cubs for two years, $32 million last winter. And pitched damn well, at that, posting a 3.03 combined ERA over the two years.

Lackey's Red Sox legacy is complicated. His redemption in 2013 masks the fact he was on track to be one of the biggest free agent busts in team history, a failure beyond his 6.41 ERA in 28 starts in 2011.


SP-Rich Hill
Current team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Years in Boston: 2015
Hurt Meter: 4

As far as I can tell, he's the only active Bay State Conference alumnus in the big leagues. He also could have been a fantastic third or fourth starter at for a whopping $6 million, a.k.a 20 percent of what David Price makes per season.

PS I say third or fourth, because even though Eddie Rodriguez was the presumptive No. 3 playoff starter for the Red Sox, the nod wound up going to Buchholz. Not as egregious as, say, Buck Showalter not using Zach Britton at all in the AL Wild Card game, but it's worthy of further discussion.


SP-Bartolo Colon
Current team: New York Mets
Years in Boston: 2008
Hurt Meter: 2

In a vacuum, Colon's presence on the Mets in 2016 rather than the Red Sox means nothing. He did go missing in 2009, which a fair amount of people forget.

In reality, having Big Sexy around for Papi's swan song would have been pretty incredible. Colon also made his big league debut in 1997; could he have convinced Ortiz to ditch the sham of a farewell tour and hang around forever?

Alright that last part isn't quite reality, but this is: Colon would have been a better candidate to pitch in the postseason that either Buchholz or Pomeranz.


RP-Andrew Miller
Current team: Cleveland Indians
Years in Boston: 2011-2014
Hurt Meter: 5

Said hurt meter could rise or fall in the next couple of seasons depending on the emergence of Eduardo Rodriguez. If Eddie Rod does pan out? Red Sox fans shouldn't care about seeing Miller elsewhere -- even with his newly minted ALCS MVP award -- but we might want to check in down at Camden Yards. The O's traded Rodriguez to the Red Sox at the deadline in 2014 for two months of Miller, who was great for a Baltimore team that wound up losing in the ALCS, not giving up a run in 7 1/3 innings that postseason before he signed with the Yankees in the off-season.


RP-Javier Lopez
Current team: San Francisco Giants
Years in Boston: 2006-2009
Hurt Meter: 1

Did you know Lopez was on all three Giants teams that won it all? Life comes at you quick.


Manager-Terry Francona
Current team: Cleveland Indians
Years in Boston: 2004-2011
Hurt Meter: 7

There may be no more telling sign that Francona needed to go than the fact he took a year off from managing in 2012 before returning to the dugout with the Indians in 2013.

Then again, if you knew his direct successors would be Bobby Valentine and John Farrell, you'd deliver the case of Budweiser and family feed from Kenny Rogers' Roasters over to Fenway yourself.

If you want to draw your own conclusions on Tito, his book with Shaugnessy was pretty great. Shines a light on the identity crisis the Red Sox seemingly faced in 2010 and 2011 in particular.


General Manager-Theo Epstein
Current team: Chicago Cubs
Years in Boston: 2003-2011
Hurt Meter: 9

Big ticket free agents never worked out all that well for Theo in Boston, with Keith Foulke the lone exception to the rule. Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo, JD Drew, John Lackey (sort of) and Carl Crawford were all disasters to varying degrees.

None of them can even hold a candle to the Jason Heyward debacle in Chicago, which is only one year down and seven years, $161 million to go...

...and yet the Cubs just might win the World Series anyways, just as the Red Sox did the same year they splurged on Drew and Lugo.

And that's because pretty much every facet of Epstein's executive game is flawless. Drafting, drafting drafting...but also the ability to assemble a bullpen, finding guys off the scrap heap (Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller, and yes, David Ortiz), and keeping players from free agency/having them come back to haunt you.

Johnny Damon's departure hurt about 10 times more than it should have because he went to the Yankees, but it was hardly 'haunting'; Coco Crisp wasn't the perfect replacement, but Epstein had drafted Jacoby Ellsbury in the first round in 2005, likely in anticipation of Damon's exodus. And wouldn't ya know it, the Red Sox won in 2007 sans Damon, with Ellsbury's emergence a major storyline.

Theo's Hurt Meter is likely to only keep rising. Even if the Cubs don't pull out the NLCS this year, that team is locked and loaded for another five years minimum.

Special bonus: imagine if San Diego was actually good and Don Orsillo was calling some NLCS or even World Series action?



It'll hurt no matter what at this point, whether it's Indians-Cubs or Indians-Dodgers. But it'll also be wildly entertaining knowing John Henry, Tom Werner and Co. will be fuming in the offices on Yawkey Way...maybe fuming to the point Henry really does offer David Ortiz a one year, $34 million contract for next season.

I shouldn't be actively rooting for an ownership group that's brought the city three World Series titles since 2004 after nearly 90 years without one to fail. But for whatever reason, the failures of the Red Sox ownership is downright arousing. They did this to themselves.

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