We are now in the last week of basing playoff predictions off of Associated Press rankings, as November 1st will bring us the official College Football Playoff rankings. If the committee decided to say "Screw it, let's play the playoff right now," we'd be looking at No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Washington and No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Clemson.
If the top four failed to change at all by the end of the season, and these were the matchups that we would see come New Year's Eve, I'd have some serious mixed feelings. First things first, I'm not totally sold on Washington yet. And to be honest, I don't think we'll be seeing them in the playoff. Sure, they've been absolutely stomping teams throughout this season. But so far the Huskies' wins have been the epitome of "quantity over quality." It's just tough to get quality wins when you're playing in a weak conference such as the Pac 12. At the time, their win over Stanford seemed pretty legit. However, it turns out that Stanford is one of the biggest busts in college football this year, right up there with Michigan State and Notre Dame. Washington takes on No. 17 Utah this Saturday, and the remainder of their schedule features Pac 12 teams: Cal, USC, Arizona State, and Washington State. If the Huskies do end up as the undefeated Pac 12 champs, I'd assume the CFP committee would have no other option than to grant them a playoff spot. But let's be honest, if Washington had to face off against Alabama in the playoff, that game would get uglier than Sloth from the Goonies. HEYYY YOU GUUYYYSS!
On the other side of this potential final four, a matchup between Clemson and Michigan would be one of those games that makes you genuinely appreciate the College Football Playoff. I'm thinking that these two squads will absolutely be in the playoff, and it just depends on how the seeding works out if we'll get to see them go against each other in the semifinal. Seeing Harbaugh and the Wolverines will be a refreshing change of scenery. A trip to the playoff for Michigan would entail a rivalry weekend victory over the Buckeyes, which shouldn't be a cake walk. But I think this Michigan defense is just too damn good for them to not find a way into one of those four playoff spots. They allow an average of only ten points per game, which is the best in the country. It'd be extremely interesting to see such a dominant defense go up against Deshaun Watson and his numerous targets.
Much like Michigan, Clemson's high playoff hopes have one major obstacle in the way. The Tigers take on Florida State this weekend, which is a matchup that seemed a little more noteworthy in the beginning of the season. The Seminoles have dropped two losses so far to Louisville and North Carolina, but have impressed with wins over Ole Miss and Miami. This ACC battle is interesting because both of these teams are capable of being very dangerous, but both teams have also had their fair share of looking pretty weak. Fortunately for Clemson, the games that they've performed in a subpar manner have still ended up as victories. But if Dabo Swinney's boys play like anything that resembles their close win over NC State two weeks ago, the playoff picture is about to be blown up. The Tigers go into Tallahassee as four point favorites this Saturday night.
So if the current top three does indeed make the playoff, and Washington somehow finds a way to not get in there, who would we be looking at for the fourth spot? Right now, the easy pick would be Louisville. Louisville is in a very similar position as Notre Dame was last year. The Fighting Irish were in the playoff picture for some time, with their resume highlighted by a few solid wins and a "good," close loss to Clemson, who was No. 1 at the time. Louisville's current resume is highlighted by laying a beatdown on Florida State and a nail biting 42-36 loss at Clemson. The remainder of Louisville's schedule shouldn't pose them any major problems: Virginia, BC, Wake Forest, Houston, and Kentucky. A few weeks back, the matchup against Houston was looking like it'd have some major playoff implications. But as we've seen, Houston just isn't as good as I initially thought. Some external factors would certainly have to fall into place for Louisville in order for them to get a playoff spot, but I do think they're a deserving team. If the Clemson game ends up being their only loss, it was a close enough game and early enough in the season for it to not diminish their playoff hopes.
The Big 12 currently has two undefeated teams in Baylor and West Virginia, but they face off in the last regular season game. The Big 12's idiotic lack of a conference championship is also something to take into consideration regarding the playoff picture, although this final regular season game will essentially serve as a conference championship if both teams are still unbeaten. I'm really hoping that the Big 12 will chew itself up, taking away the possibility of any teams in the conference being without a loss. It's known that I despise the Big 12, but even just for the quality of playoff games, I don't think a Big 12 team could compete with Alabama, Michigan, or Clemson.
Nebraska is still unbeaten and could potentially face Michigan in the B1G Championship game, but their playoff hopes rely on beating both Wisconsin and Ohio State in back to back weeks. If there were to be two teams from the same conference in the playoff, I wouldn't bet on the one-loss Texas A&M Aggies to achieve this since their loss to Alabama was not even close.
So my official College Football Playoff prediction (for now) is partially what I think will happen, blended with what I want to happen:
Alabama vs. Louisville and Clemson vs. Michigan.
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