Checking in on College Football's Preseason Rankings

At this point it's no secret that college football's preseason rankings are often far from accurate, which honestly should be expected. I mean it's nearly impossible to precisely evaluate every team's talent relative to each other without actually watching anyone go head to head yet. Although there's more than plenty of football left this season, after wrapping up week five we certainly have a much better idea of who's legit and who's not.

So what teams did the Associated Press whiff on already, and how many teams have they been right about so far?

The preseason AP top 25 was as follows:

1. Alabama (33)
2. Clemson (16)
3. Oklahoma (4)
4. Florida State (5)
5. LSU (1)
6. Ohio State (1)
7. Michigan (1)
8. Stanford
9. Tennessee
10. Notre Dame
11. Ole Miss
12. Michigan State
13. TCU
14. Washington
15. Houston
16. UCLA
17. Iowa
18. Georgia
19. Louisville
20. USC
21. Oklahoma State
22. North Carolina
23. Baylor
24. Oregon
25. Florida

The week six AP top 25 is as follows, see if you notice any significant variations:

1. Alabama (53)
2. Ohio State (60
3. Clemson (1)
4. Michigan (1)
5. Washington
6. Houston
7. Louisville
8. Texas A&M
9. Tennessee
10. Miami
11. Wisconsin
12. Baylor
13. Nebraska
14. Ole Miss
15. Stanford
16. Arkansas
17. North Carolina
18. Florida
19. Boise State
20. Oklahoma
21. Colorado
22. West Virginia
23. Florida State
24. Utah
25. Virginia Tech

Of the current top ten, only No. 8 Texas A&M and No. 10 Miami failed to land spots in the preseason top 25. However, these two squads did earn the two most votes of any other team outside of the top 25 (the 'Canes received 159 votes the Aggies received 81). And looking further into the current top ten, the current top five only features one team that was outside of the preseason top 10 ten with Washington as preseason No. 14. But it's important to remember the extent of rarity for a team to drop in the rankings without losing, and it's still the same people ranking teams in week six as it is in the preseason, so the accuracy of these projections is a bit cyclical.

So basically, the only way teams can drop in the rankings, thus slightly discrediting the AP's predictions, is by forcing it with losses. There are a few busts in this bunch, most notably LSU and Notre Dame. As you may have noticed in the "before" and "after" pictures, sort of like an infomercial for a sketchy weight loss product, the AP rankings have lost two preseason top ten teams in just five short weeks! Call and order now! But for real, the Tigers were ranked as preseason No. 5 while also receiving one vote as the nation's top team, and the Irish were sittin' pretty at No. 10. Since then, LSU has lost two games and a longtime head coach, while Brian Kelly and the Golden Domers have fallen short of victory three times already, leaving them with a sub .500 record. The last time they had three losses this early on in the season was 2010.

The "second tier busts" throughout the first five games, in my opinion, are headlined by Florida State and Oklahoma. The Seminoles and Sooners have both lost two games so far in 2016, which warrants a steep fall in the rankings, but the two losses for each team were not particularly horrible. Florida State's first loss came to Louisville who is a great team, but they got absolutely curb stomped so it wasn't by any means a "good loss." The 'Noles second loss came last week thanks to a last second field goal by North Carolina, who sits at the No. 17 spots in the week six rankings. So those two losses came to good teams, but the preseason No. 4 team starting out 3-2 is a joke.

Oklahoma's losses are actually to two very, very good teams in Houston and Ohio State, two potential playoff teams. So the Sooners' performance in 2016 can't be totally thrashed (yet), but they undoubtedly did not deserve to be deemed the third best team in the country.

Another HUGE stinker from the preseason top 25 is Iowa, who started at the No. 17 spot. Since then, they've completely dropped out of the rankings and lost twice; once to Northwestern and once to North Dakota State. Yes, North Dakota State, the FCS team. The Hawkeyes' three wins have come against Miami of Ohio, Iowa State, and Rutgers. Those three teams have a combined total of three wins this season. Not a good look for Iowa, and not a good look for the Associated Press thinking that the Hawkeyes would be legit.

Just a few more random tidbits while on the topic of the current rankings compared to the preseason rankings:

In terms of stock value due to the weekly rankings over the course of these five weeks, the ACC's stock has risen the most of the Power Five conferences. The preseason top 25 featured four ACC teams, and the most recent rankings feature six ACC teams. The ACC is the only Power Five Conference that has more teams in the top 25 now than in the preseason rankings. The SEC and BIG 10 both have the same amount of teams in the rankings now than they did to start the season (SEC with 6, BIG 10 with 4). The Pac 12 and Big 12, aka the weakest of the Power Five Conferences, have both seen slight decreases in stock values. The Big 12 started the season with four top 25 teams and now have three. The Pac 12 began the season with the second most teams in the top 25 (only SEC had more) with five teams featured, and now have dropped to four teams.