Sure enough, my sixth sense was tingling. The boys (and girls) of summer will be making their respective returns to Tokyo in 2020. Details of the format remain murky, and whether MLB players will be traveling to Japan is yet to be sorted out. According to the story, an agreement has been reached "with all the other professional leagues," meaning Japan, Korea and others, presumably.
Major League Baseball's CBA expires on Dec. 1 of this year, so you can be sure the Olympics will be brought up. Baseball has had relative labor peace since the disaster of '94 (there was a near-strike in '02), and is actually on the longest streak among big four leagues of not having a work stoppage (although the NFL's squabble in 2011 didn't result in any missed games; that will likely happen after their next CBA negotiations with the ginger hammer. But that is another story for another time).
So just to get you up to speed, I wrote what my ideal Olympic tournament would look like earlier this morning: a 12-team, pool play field with three pool winners and a wild-card moving on to the crossover round.
If the pros played, it would be pretty hard to top a roster of 25 Americans, although Venezuela, the Dominican Republic and Japan -- especially as a host team, with a 46-year-old Ichiro Suzuki batting leadoff -- would be far from pushovers.
One of the most interesting things about the U.S. roster, just like with basketball and hockey, is that there's almost too much talent to choose from. It's a little easier in that you need a starting nine rather than just a starting five in basketball, and theoretically sharing the ball and/or puck wouldn't be an issue, but the composition of the actual roster would be a nightmare.
In 2015, 638 out of 868 players on Opening Day rosters and disabled/restricted lists hailed from the United States, or 73.5 percent of all major league players. Narrowing that down to the 25 best? Picking one starter at nine positions (including DH) and rounding out a bench and a pitching staff?
Fortunately, one man's nightmare is another man's idea of a night on the town. The tournament would likely only include five games per team, but I went with the 25-man roster because hey, that's the standard. I'm going with six infielders, five outfielders, two catchers and 12 pitchers. I'll indicate a starter (in CAPS) at each position in the infield, with two backups, and three starters at any outfield position, with two backups.
I'm taking a little liberty with the pitching staff, where I'll select a five-man rotation but include several starters in the bullpen. I'm only gonna take four true relievers because for every Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman that lasts for 20 years, there's a Rudy Seanez.
I'm taking a little liberty with the pitching staff, where I'll select a five-man rotation but include several starters in the bullpen. I'm only gonna take four true relievers because for every Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman that lasts for 20 years, there's a Rudy Seanez.
All statistics I used were through games played on Wednesday, Aug. 3
Catchers: BUSTER POSEY, Jonathan Lucroy
Apologies to: No one, really. Maybe Brian McCann based off his reputation, but he plays a lot more 1B these days. Either way, his batting average (.236) and OPS (.758) lag significantly behind Posey (.291, .827) and Lucroy (.297, .834).
The 2012 Olympic roster would have been a significantly larger logjam for the U.S., as Joe Mauer and Mike Napoli still played the majority of their games behind the dish. Posey was NL MVP in '12, Jarrod Saltalamacchia was still young enough (especially for his wife, his gym teacher from high school 16 years his senior) to draw intrigue, and McCann was on the top of his game in Atlanta.
These days, elite catchers seem to resemble Doug Mirabelli or Francis Cervelli. Only 10 catchers in all of baseball are on pace to qualify for the batting title, and only six Americans.
First base: ANTHONY RIZZO
Apologies to: Eric Hosmer, Napoli, Paul Goldschmidt
Boston fans cringe at the sight of Tyler Seguin in a Dallas Stars uniform because they saw him play at the TD Garden for three seasons. The astute Boston fan should be cringing as much, if not more so, at the sight of Rizzo crushing the ball on the north side of Chicago. Just because he's only a former Paw Sox great and not a Red Sox great shouldn't blur the fact that Adrian Gonzalez-for-Anthony Rizzo has proven to be a massive flop.
Nevertheless, it's Rizzo by a fairly wide margin for the Americans in Rio. He leads all major league first basemen in OPS (.971), RBIs (79), doubles (30) and, if you're into nerd stuff, WAR (4.4). He's second in homers with 24 and fourth in batting average at .288. Based on some logjams across the infield, and the relative ease of playing it (I'm about to win a gold glove playing for LaunchSight, nbd but kbd), I'm only taking Rizzo out of this crop.
Note: avid reader/barrelfire hot taek specialist Frank Ryan points out that Rizzo played for Italy in the last World Baseball Classic. I tend to look at the WBC the same way I look at Caddyshack II or Anchorman II: they are cheap spin-offs that never happened. And it's not like he played for North Korea or something.
Second base: DUSTIN PEDROIA, Ian Kinsler
Apologies to: Daniel Murphy, Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis
Remember the late '90s, early 2000s, when shortstop was stacked with Nomar, A-Rod, Jeter and Tejada? I'm not quite sure if this crop of second basemen quite has those chops, but with shortstop down, the power has clearly shifted across the bag at second. Throw in Jose Altuve and Robbie Cano and second base is LOADED right now.
For the purpose of this team, I'm taking Pedroia because I'm a giant homer of his grit and veteran presence. I've made a case that the start of Pedroia's career put him on a Hall of Fame track. It sounds ridiculous, but hear me out: Rookie of the Year in '07, MVP in '08, two-time World Series champion, four gold gloves. Injuries haven't been helpful to Pedey, but his career average is still just a tick under .300 (.299, to be precise) and he's at 1,607 hits. He'll be 33 on Aug. 17, so if he wants to get to 3,000 hits by the time he's 40, he'll need seven straight seasons of 200-plus hits, give or take. The Hall is a long shot, but not impossible.
People forget that Pedroia beat out Kinsler at Arizona State (speaking of people forget that's, that's where I received my first acceptance letter from. Cool story). Kinsler's power numbers are superior to Pedroia's, and believe it or not, Kinsler's career postseason average and OPS blow Pedroia's away. Playing in Texas rather than Boston/New York/Philadelphia has kept Kinsler a pretty well-kept secret through the years. So quibble with this selection all you will, but I'm rolling to war with Pedroia over Kinsler for Olympic gold.
Third base: JOSH DONALDSON, Kris Bryant
Apologies to: Nolan Arenado, Evan Longoria, Kyle Seager
Pound for pound, this was the toughest decision for the roster in terms of naming a starter. Donaldson, Bryant and Arenado could all equally lay claim to the hot corner.
I'm going with Donaldson, the reigning American League MVP, because his numbers are actually up in virtually every category this season. He's on pace for virtually the same number of homers (40, currently at 27; hit 41 last year), his average is basically the same (.299 this year vs. .297 last year), and his OBP, slugging and OPS are all up enough to make you think that, even in his age 30 season, he may not have hit his peak. Billy Beane gets way too much of a pass for his trade of Donaldson north of the border.
Bryant gets the backup nod here, in part because he can play some outfield, in part because I'm less skeptical about the validity of his numbers at Wrigley than Arenado's at Coors Field. Speaking of the Colorado Kool-Aid effect...
Shortstop: COREY SEAGER
Apologies to: Troy Tulowitzki, Trevor Story, Manny Machado
Tulo has been the resident "best shortstop in baseball" really since Derek Jeter faded away, and even though Tulo had the benefit of thin air in Denver to perhaps aid his power numbers, lets not forget Jeter played his home games in a park where you could check-swing a home run with your off-hand.
To be fair, Tulo is set to turn 32 on Oct. 10 (great day BTW), and is theoretically past his prime years anyways. But just like virtually every other player to depart Colorado, his numbers have taken a dip. In 120 games since joining the Blue Jays, Tulo is slashing .242/.313/.434, a sample size of roughly 3/4 of a season. His power remains in tact for the most part, with 23 homers and 69 RBIs, but the Tulo of Colorado ain't walking through that door.
His heir apparent at Coors, Story, has been, well...one of the best stories in baseball this year prior to his season-ending hand injury. His 27 home runs are tied for the lead in the NL, for now, and at just 23 it appears he'll be a factor for awhile.
But pretty much all you need to know about Story his his home/road OPS split: 1.086 in Colorado, .747 on the road.
And oh yeah for the guy I actually wound up picking? He's pretty much single-handedly kept the Dodgers, they of the record $253 million payroll, afloat. As a rookie, no less!
Quick aside on Machado: he's played primarily at 3B in his career, but came up as a shortstop. He was born in Florida to Dominican parents, so he'd face a loaded roster no matter his allegiance for the Olympics.
Outfield: MIKE TROUT, BRYCE HARPER, MOOKIE BETTS, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
Apologies to: Mark Trumbo, Jay Bruce, Jackie Bradley Jr., Adam Jones, Ryan Braun, Dexter Fowler
Mike Trout makes it because he's Mike Trout and Bryce Harper makes it because he's Bryce Harper (even if he's having a subpar season). The real agony was over the third starter in the outfield, where the nod goes to Betts. And it has nothing to do with me being a homer.
Betts is on pace to be the first leadoff hitter with a 30 HR, 100 RBI season in major league history. History which dates back to when the South was still sorting the pieces back together following the Civil War.
That sorta speaks for itself, but people forget that Betts actually came up as a second baseman and was only shifted to the outfield to accommodate Pedroia. I'm not saying that's the tie-breaker, but it warrants mentioning what a freak athlete this guy is. Not to mention his foray as a bowler.
Trout is still not only the best American outfielder available, but the best American player at any position, and probably the best overall player in the world. You gotta love the MLB draft, where Trout was selected 25th overall in 2009. Stephen Strasburg went No. 1 that year, but what an absolute dumpster fire it was for the 23 selections in between.
Cutch and Mike Stanton are each having down years by their standards, but until they completely fall off a cliff, they get the bench nods over the best of the rest.
Starting Pitchers: MADISON BUMGARNER, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale
Bonus: Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jake deGrom
Apologies to: Noah Syndergaard, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and even David Price.
If there's one area where the U.S. can assert its dominance over the rest of the Olympic field, it's with the arms.
Bumgarner over Kershaw for the Game 1 start is somewhat of a no-brainer, because as we all know Clayton rhymes with Peyton and we see the parallels of their postseason performances.
For what it's worth, Lester is the only starter other than Bumgarner I took with a win in the World Series. Which probably makes him worth more than a hometown discount of 4 years, $70 million, but that's just semantics. Makes me think I could include Hamels, the 2008 World Series MVP, but I don't know how you bump anyone ahead of him.
Relievers: Andrew Miller (Closer), Wade Davis, David Robertson, Zach Britton
The Andrew Miller case study is truly fascinating. Here's a guy who was the No. 6 overall pick in 2006, and was the key piece (along with Cameron Maybin and four stiffs) in a package Dave Dombrowski put together to bring Miguel Cabrera (and Dontrelle Willis) to Detroit in 2008.
Miller flopped as a starter, making the trade of Miggy from the Marlins to the Tigers more laughable than it was to begin with. But once he became a reliever with the Red Sox full-time in 2012, he's thrown 240.2 innings, compiling a 2.24 ERA and an absolutely downright absurd 14.2 strikeouts/9 innings.
Wade Davis is another failed starter turned elite relieve in his own right. A throw-in in the James Shields trade to Kansas City in 2013, once KC determined Davis was better suited to the 'pen for the 2014 season, he's got a 1.09 ERA in 173 innings.
You're not gonna believe this...but Britton, too, was mediocre as a starter before the Orioles thrust him into the closer's role in 2014. Why the Red Sox never tried this with Clay Buchholz, I'll never understand.
Just like every little league manager in the Milky Way galaxy says, "sounds like runs."
Would this American superstar team take home the gold? And which country would be the biggest threat?
We'll have answers in 2020, assuming things in Rio don't take too dark of a turn that they have to cancel the Olympics forever.
Love the roster? Hate the roster? Let me know over @JakeLevin477 on Twitter.
I'm going with Donaldson, the reigning American League MVP, because his numbers are actually up in virtually every category this season. He's on pace for virtually the same number of homers (40, currently at 27; hit 41 last year), his average is basically the same (.299 this year vs. .297 last year), and his OBP, slugging and OPS are all up enough to make you think that, even in his age 30 season, he may not have hit his peak. Billy Beane gets way too much of a pass for his trade of Donaldson north of the border.
Bryant gets the backup nod here, in part because he can play some outfield, in part because I'm less skeptical about the validity of his numbers at Wrigley than Arenado's at Coors Field. Speaking of the Colorado Kool-Aid effect...
Shortstop: COREY SEAGER
Apologies to: Troy Tulowitzki, Trevor Story, Manny Machado
Tulo has been the resident "best shortstop in baseball" really since Derek Jeter faded away, and even though Tulo had the benefit of thin air in Denver to perhaps aid his power numbers, lets not forget Jeter played his home games in a park where you could check-swing a home run with your off-hand.
To be fair, Tulo is set to turn 32 on Oct. 10 (great day BTW), and is theoretically past his prime years anyways. But just like virtually every other player to depart Colorado, his numbers have taken a dip. In 120 games since joining the Blue Jays, Tulo is slashing .242/.313/.434, a sample size of roughly 3/4 of a season. His power remains in tact for the most part, with 23 homers and 69 RBIs, but the Tulo of Colorado ain't walking through that door.
His heir apparent at Coors, Story, has been, well...one of the best stories in baseball this year prior to his season-ending hand injury. His 27 home runs are tied for the lead in the NL, for now, and at just 23 it appears he'll be a factor for awhile.
But pretty much all you need to know about Story his his home/road OPS split: 1.086 in Colorado, .747 on the road.
And oh yeah for the guy I actually wound up picking? He's pretty much single-handedly kept the Dodgers, they of the record $253 million payroll, afloat. As a rookie, no less!
Quick aside on Machado: he's played primarily at 3B in his career, but came up as a shortstop. He was born in Florida to Dominican parents, so he'd face a loaded roster no matter his allegiance for the Olympics.
Outfield: MIKE TROUT, BRYCE HARPER, MOOKIE BETTS, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
Apologies to: Mark Trumbo, Jay Bruce, Jackie Bradley Jr., Adam Jones, Ryan Braun, Dexter Fowler
Mike Trout makes it because he's Mike Trout and Bryce Harper makes it because he's Bryce Harper (even if he's having a subpar season). The real agony was over the third starter in the outfield, where the nod goes to Betts. And it has nothing to do with me being a homer.
Betts is on pace to be the first leadoff hitter with a 30 HR, 100 RBI season in major league history. History which dates back to when the South was still sorting the pieces back together following the Civil War.
That sorta speaks for itself, but people forget that Betts actually came up as a second baseman and was only shifted to the outfield to accommodate Pedroia. I'm not saying that's the tie-breaker, but it warrants mentioning what a freak athlete this guy is. Not to mention his foray as a bowler.
Trout is still not only the best American outfielder available, but the best American player at any position, and probably the best overall player in the world. You gotta love the MLB draft, where Trout was selected 25th overall in 2009. Stephen Strasburg went No. 1 that year, but what an absolute dumpster fire it was for the 23 selections in between.
Cutch and Mike Stanton are each having down years by their standards, but until they completely fall off a cliff, they get the bench nods over the best of the rest.
Starting Pitchers: MADISON BUMGARNER, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale
Bonus: Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jake deGrom
Apologies to: Noah Syndergaard, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and even David Price.
If there's one area where the U.S. can assert its dominance over the rest of the Olympic field, it's with the arms.
Bumgarner over Kershaw for the Game 1 start is somewhat of a no-brainer, because as we all know Clayton rhymes with Peyton and we see the parallels of their postseason performances.
For what it's worth, Lester is the only starter other than Bumgarner I took with a win in the World Series. Which probably makes him worth more than a hometown discount of 4 years, $70 million, but that's just semantics. Makes me think I could include Hamels, the 2008 World Series MVP, but I don't know how you bump anyone ahead of him.
Relievers: Andrew Miller (Closer), Wade Davis, David Robertson, Zach Britton
The Andrew Miller case study is truly fascinating. Here's a guy who was the No. 6 overall pick in 2006, and was the key piece (along with Cameron Maybin and four stiffs) in a package Dave Dombrowski put together to bring Miguel Cabrera (and Dontrelle Willis) to Detroit in 2008.
Miller flopped as a starter, making the trade of Miggy from the Marlins to the Tigers more laughable than it was to begin with. But once he became a reliever with the Red Sox full-time in 2012, he's thrown 240.2 innings, compiling a 2.24 ERA and an absolutely downright absurd 14.2 strikeouts/9 innings.
Wade Davis is another failed starter turned elite relieve in his own right. A throw-in in the James Shields trade to Kansas City in 2013, once KC determined Davis was better suited to the 'pen for the 2014 season, he's got a 1.09 ERA in 173 innings.
You're not gonna believe this...but Britton, too, was mediocre as a starter before the Orioles thrust him into the closer's role in 2014. Why the Red Sox never tried this with Clay Buchholz, I'll never understand.
So how might the starting lineup look? We'll assume the use of a DH:
RF Mookie Betts
CF Mike Trout
LF Bryce Harper
3B Josh Donaldson
1B Anthony Rizzo
DH Kris Bryant
C Buster Posey
SS Corey Seager
2B Dustin Pedroia
Just like every little league manager in the Milky Way galaxy says, "sounds like runs."
Would this American superstar team take home the gold? And which country would be the biggest threat?
We'll have answers in 2020, assuming things in Rio don't take too dark of a turn that they have to cancel the Olympics forever.
Love the roster? Hate the roster? Let me know over @JakeLevin477 on Twitter.
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