Gus Malzahn and his Tigers are coming off of a subpar 8-5 season, which included losses to LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama. Honestly, their only quality SEC win last year was a 28-24 win over Texas A&M, with their only other conference wins being over Arkansas and Ole Miss. In terms of numbers, the Tigers looked better than their record, ranking 19th in points per game with 42.8, and allowed the 18th fewest points per game with 19.6. Again, not the most impressive showing from Auburn, but they do have some positive momentum to carry over from a 63-14 beatdown of Purdue in the Music City Bowl.
The Tigers just recently announced true freshman Bo Nix as the official starter under center for Saturday evening's matchup. Nix was a five-star recruit in high school and is a skilled dual-threat quarterback, who is also an Auburn legacy; Bo's father Patrick played QB there from 1992-1995. Jimbo Fisher was actually Auburn's quarterback coach at the time. Obviously there's the potential danger of Nix crumbling under the bright lights in his first ever collegiate game, but they obviously wouldn't name him QB1 if they didn't think he could step up. So we'll see if the coaching staff's evaluation was an accurate one come Saturday. For what it's worth, Bo Nix is a phenomenal football name. Especially for quarterback in the SEC. Luckily for Nix, he should expect some strong protection from an incredibly talented and experienced offensive line.
Expect sophomore Seth Williams to be one of Nix's main targets in the passing game; in his freshman season, Williams put up 26 catches for 534 yards and five touchdowns. Also, the coaching staff has had some good things to say about receiver Matthew Hill, who redshirted last season. The 6 foot 1 Georgia native reeled in five catches for 128 yards and two touchdowns in Auburn's spring game.
This offense has a deep group of running backs, so expect a few different guys to be heavily in the mix. The running backs are coached by the absolute legend Cadillac Williams, and he is on record saying he wants "as many guys contributing as possible." Most likely at the head of the pack will be JaTarvious Whitlow, who was Auburn's leading rusher in 2018. Whitlow went for 787 yards and six touchdowns on the ground.
I had mentioned the Auburn offensive line checking off both the "talented" and "experienced" boxes, but their defensive line may just outshine the hogs on the offense. This defensive line corps is highlighted by senior Derrick Brown, who's coming off of a stellar junior season in which he tallied 48 tackles (26 solo, 22 assisted) with 10.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks. Brown also defended two passes in 2018. The d-line also features senior Marlon Davidson, who had 46 total tackles (20 solo, 26 assisted) with 4.5 of those being for loss (2.5 sacks) and three passes defended. Nick Coe had a great sophomore season, as 13.5 of his 26 tackles were for loss, seven of them being sacks. Big Kat Bryant should contribute in his junior season, after recording 18 tackles with 3.5 sacks, and a forced fumble last year, along with a pick-six in Auburn's bowl win over Purdue.
In Mario Cristobal's first year as Oregon's head coach last season, the Ducks finished 9-4, with losses coming to Stanford, Washington State, Arizona, and Utah. Three out of those four losses are pretty reasonable, especially for a first year coach. The biggest of their nine wins were: 42-24 over Cal, an OT victory over Washington, and an ugly 7-6 win over Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl. Oregon scored an average of 34.8 points per game, while allowing an average of 27.
Most of Oregon's preseason discussion has obviously surrounded senior quarterback Justin Herbert, who is considered a consensus first round NFL draft pick next spring. I'll be completely honest with everybody here, I don't particularly see where all the hype is coming from. Now, that's not me writing off Justin Herbert and saying he's a bad player. In any sense. He'll be drafted in the first round. I'm not denying the potential for his ceiling. In his senior campaign, he very well could convert me into a believer. He finally gets to play under the same head coach in consecutive seasons for the first time in his collegiate career, which should do him nothing but favors. But as of right now, I just don't understand the amount of drooling praise this guy gets. Numerically speaking, taking the handful of basic passing statistics, he was the 3rd or 4th best quarterback just in the Pac 12 last year. Like I said, he could have an astounding season and eventually warrant all of this hype, but until then let's pump the brakes on that a bit.
In 2018, Herbert completed 59.4% of his throws, tallying 3,151 yards, 29 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He eclipsed the 300-yard mark just twice: 308 vs San Jose State and 346 in an OT loss to Stanford. A loss in which Herbert threw an overtime interception.
Herbert is athletic enough to roll out and improvise if necessary, but luckily for him, the Ducks are returning all five of their starters from the 2018 offensive line. For now, the QB's targets are unproven. I'd keep an eye on Penn State transfer Juwan Johnson, a 6 foot 4, 231 pounder from Glassboro, New Jersey. In his junior year for the Nittany Lions, Johnson 25 had catches for 352 yards and a touchdown. His sophomore year was more productive; he put up 54 receptions and 701 yards in total.
The Ducks have some serious Sophomore skill in the backfield with Travis Dye and CJ Verdell, both California natives. The Oregon State defense got absolutely sliced by these guys last year, as Dye ran for 199 yards against the Beavers, and Verdell got 187 yards of his own. And I probably shouldn't fail to mention Verdell's five rushing touchdowns that game. That added to his season totals of 1,018 yards and ten touchdowns on the ground. He definitely was involved in the passing game too, catching 27 balls for 315 yards and two touchdowns. Travis Dye totaled 739 yards and four touchdowns on 140 carries.
Oregon understandably feels confident in their defensive unit, and I'm especially excited to watch true freshman defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux (another A+ name playing in this one), the No. 1 overall recruit of his class. The kid is simply a freakish athlete, standing at 6 foot 5, weighing in at 245 pounds. He played some tight end in high school as well; his highlight tape is fun as hell. His mobility is constantly on full display, and he seems to have good instinct. Thibodeaux is on record saying his goal is to get ten sacks this season. Setting the bar high, no doubt about that.
I'm sure the little rant I had about not being sold on Justin Hebert may have given you a hunch that I'm not completely sold on Oregon as a whole. That's pretty much correct. I do think Cristobal had an impressive first season in Eugene, and I do think the program is headed in the right direction. But like I said, I'm not entirely sold on Oregon. Now Auburn isn't a title contender, and who knows what their final record will look like after their gauntlet of a schedule. But I'm more confident in the Tigers to come out on top in this one, diminishing the Pac 12's national credibility just that much more. Oregon had a successful 2018, but you can't sit there and tell me they'd finish with anything close to a similar record if they played in the SEC West. I know SEC bias can be completely exhausting, but let's take it into consideration when comparing these two teams. As of now, the Tigers are favored by 3.5. That line gives me a bit of the spooks, but if it helps your decision making, the public is currently in favor of Oregon +3.5. Tough to trust the general public.
Other games to watch this weekend: Thursday features the reigning champs, Clemson, hosting Georgia Tech. Clemson is favored by 37. Late night we've got No. 14 Utah at BYU. The Utes are favored by 6.5, with an over/under of 48.
Friday night: No. 19 Wisconsin (-11.5) at USF; No. 18 Michigan State vs Tulsa.
Saturday early games: No. 5 Ohio State vs Lane Kiffin's Florida Atlantic; Memphis (-5.5) vs Ole Miss
Saturday afternoon: No. 2 Alabama vs Duke; North Carolina vs South Carolina; No. 25 Stanford (-6) vs Northwestern
Saturday night: Florida State (-4.5) vs Boise State; No. 3 Georgia at Vanderbilt; USC (-13.5) vs Fresno State.
Sunday night: No. 4 Oklahoma (-23) vs Houston (now coached by Dana Holgorsen)
Monday night: No. 9 Notre Dame (-18) at Louisville
Enjoy the first full slate of college football. We made it.
No comments:
Post a Comment