Thursday, October 4, 2018

College football games to watch: week six

The Early Games




For the 113th time, the Texas Longhorns (no. 19) and Oklahoma Sooners (No. 7) will battle it out in the Red River Showdown with the College Gameday boys in town. The Longhorns' recent (and impressive) win streak has made this matchup more interesting than it has been in recent years; the last time these two faced off with both teams being in the top 25 rankings was 2012. And this is a rivalry between two blue chips that are used to having both teams ranked when they meet. Before the Texas-being-bad streak of 2013-2017, we'd have to go back to 2005 to see a ranked vs. unranked Red River Rivalry game. But even though Texas hasn't enjoyed their usually typical level of success lately, they've still showed up to play and compete with Oklahoma in the last few meetings. In the previous five games between these two teams, each game has ended with a one-possession point differential. The unranked Longhorns came out on top in two of those, and lost the other three by five points each. Oklahoma heads into this one currently favored by eight points, which is the highest amount of points for this one to still be in the one-possession range. Both teams are 2-3 against the spread this year. Texas has done a great job rebounding from the week one loss to Maryland, and the Oklahoma offense is firing on all cylinders. Kyler Murray has successfully made everyone sad that he's pursuing a professional baseball career, because watching him play football is pure beauty. This will be the Longhorns' third ranked opponent in four weeks, and the Sooners have not faced a team in the top 25 yet this season. If Texas can pull this one off, could I maybe, potentially contemplate saying that the Longhorns...are...back? We'll see if that's a possibility when this one ends early Saturday afternoon.

Although it's not expected to be a competitive game, I'm going to be checking in on Maryland vs. No. 15 Michigan at the Big House. I've been pretty dismissive of Michigan, but their only loss being to Notre Dame is now looking to be more of a resume booster than the immediate tarnish of a fulfilling season it once seemed to be. And coincidentally, since Michigan seemed to be counted out to a certain extent, I haven't been tuning in as intently for their games in recent weeks. Now it's not like Harbaugh and his boys can ride the wave of having one loss in South Bend until the end of the year, flipping that into a playoff berth (in the scenario that ND runs the table and gets into the CFP). After Saturday's matchup against the Terps, Michigan is looking at three straight games against ranked opponents: at home vs. No. 16 Wisconsin, on the road at No. 20 Michigan State, and then back to Ann Arbor to host No. 11 Penn State. Despite an upset scare/a comeback that shouldn't have been necessary last weekend against Northwestern, Michigan is expected to handle Maryland with ease as 17.5 point favorites. And if they do effectuate the Vegas prognosis (and assuming that their next three opponents win until their respective meetings), we'll be looking at three straight weeks of Michigan featured in the weekly "games to watch." And more importantly, the more that Notre Dame's stock rises, so does Michigan's. Which means if you're obsessive over deciphering, analyzing, and projecting any and all aspects that could influence playoff scenarios that may or may not happen, familiarizing yourself with Michigan is in your best interest. Toss this one on the second or third screen for the early games, or just switch to it intermittently during the Red River commercial breaks.

The Afternoon Games

Saturday's afternoon platter is highlighted by a top-25 SEC matchup between Coach O's No. 5 LSU Tigers and the No. 22 Florida Gators in Gainesville. LSU has not lost a game yet this season, and have two wins over teams that were ranked in the top ten at the time of their meeting (Miami was No. 8 and Auburn was No. 7). Florida hopped back into this week's rankings after beating Mississippi State last week 13-6, knocking the then No. 23 Bulldogs out of the top 25. Florida's lone loss to Kentucky isn't looking as bad as it did at the time, as Benny Snell and the No. 13 Wildcats have been rolling. The last time a regular season battle between LSU and Florida has been decided by double digits was in October of 2011, when "Moves Like Jagger," "Party Rock Anthem," and "Pumped Up Kicks" were some jams topping the Billboard charts. Between the traditionally close games and these two teams obtaining loads of momentum, Vegas is predicting this to be a tight one, as LSU is favored by 2.5 points. The Tigers' defense has looked very legit this year so far, but concerns have been raised about their production on the offensive side of the ball. However, the offense looked better than they have all season last week as they thrashed Ole Miss 45-16. Whether that's an outlier of a performance, or the unit is starting to click, we'll have a better idea on Saturday. The Swamp should be an especially hostile environment on Saturday afternoon, which could potentially disrupt quarterback Joe Burrow and the flow of the offensive unit. The Gators defense has allowed only 14 points per game, which is the 9th best in the nation.


The latest AP top-25 had a few new appearances in there, with the No. 21 Colorado Buffs being one of them. You know how everybody has those "college football is better when (insert team) is good" takes? For whatever reason, I feel that way about Colorado. I inexplicably have a strong desire for them to be a successful football team. Why? I have no clue. Maybe it's because I'm a sucker for black and gold uniforms. Maybe it's because Ted Johnson and Chauncey Billups are by boys. Whatever it is, I'm digging the sight of them in the top 25 and I hope their stock continues to rise. But unfortunately for the undefeated Buffs, they can't waste time relishing in the fact that they're currently in the rankings, because Herm Edwards and his Sun Devils come to Boulder on Saturday. Arizona State is 3-2 so far this year with a win over Michigan State and a seven-point road loss at Washington. Colorado's opponents so far haven't been the mightiest of FBS teams (Colorado State, a rather pathetic Nebraska squad, the abomination that is Chip Kelly and UCLA), but for what it's worth one of their victories came against Keith Foulke's favorite team the University of New Hampshire Wildcats. Colorado enters this Pac 12 South showdown favorited by 2.5. They are 3-1 against the spread this season, while ASU is 4-1 against the spread. Of the eight times these two teams have met, Colorado has only come out on top one time (2016).

The Night Games



No. 6 Notre Dame has officially entered the playoff discussion, as they've got nothing but wins in the rearview and winnable games up ahead. The Fighting Irish seemingly have only a few glaring challenges left on their schedule, starting with Saturday night's trip to Blacksburg, Virginia to take on the No. 24 Virginia Tech Hokies under the lights. The Irish are currently favored by six points over the Hokies. Notre Dame is really firing on all cylinders now that they've implemented junior Ian Book under center. After starting the season with three close victories, ND and their new QB1 really shifted gears by slapping around Wake Forest and Stanford. Virginia Tech's one loss was beyond embarrassing two weeks ago, a 49-35 upset by Old Dominion. They did rebound nicely by handling No. 22 Duke 31-14 in Durham, knocking the Blue Devils out of the rankings. The initial starting quarterback for VTech, Josh Jackson, suffered a broken fibula in their one loss on the year. In the win over Duke, junior quarterback Ryan Willis lit it up by completing 17 of 27 passes for 332 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks. After Virginia Tech on Saturday night, Notre Dame's biggest remaining threats that could end their playoff hopes are probably Navy in South Bend and Syracuse at Yankee Stadium. The Irish obviously can't look past the Hokies, as the crowd should be wild as usual (Enter Sandman is a top three college football entrance tradition) and Notre Dame's only other road game this season was two weeks ago at Wake Forest.

The SEC gives us two games in the night slot that are intriguing.  No. 13 Kentucky is rolling and running back Benny Snell is putting up numbers that put him in the Heisman conversation. The Wildcats travel to College Station to battle it out with Texas A&M, who we've seen can compete with top tier talent. The Aggies are favored by six at home. Mississippi State was knocked out of the rankings when they lost two straight to Kentucky and Florida. The Bulldogs host No. 8 Auburn on Saturday night. Auburn is favored by four points in this one.



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