Friday, September 21, 2018

College football games to watch: week four

The Early Games

For being a top-ten, undefeated team (with a win over a ranked opponent), Notre Dame sure is getting a lot of heat. But when you look at their other two wins over Ball State and Vanderbilt, they've won by a single possession in each of the victories against inferior opponents. I won't sit here and tell you that Vanderbilt is as terrible as they were not too many years prior, but Notre Dame, as No. 8 in the country, should win at home by more than five against the Commodores. And they certainly should win by more than eight when hosting Ball State. So now the Irish will travel for the first time this season to take on a 2-1 Wake Forest team. Wake Forest's sole loss came to Boston College last Thursday night, a team that now sits at No. 23 in the rankings. Between Notre Dame's shakiness in the last two weeks, Wake Forest looking not terrible, and the Irish being in an away stadium for the first time, you can see why people's "upset radar" might be going off for this matchup. I don't think the Deamon Deacons will pull it off, but any game becomes substantially more intriguing even if the grand minority deems it a potential upset.


The No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs visit the 3-0 Missouri Tigers as heavy favorites. Although Georgia outweighs Mizzou in many (probably all) aspects, Drew Lock could maybe, possibly, potentially play a perfect game and keep this one relatively close against a stacked Georgia team. Lock has eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark already this season, which only six other quarterbacks can boast about so far. He is also tied with Dwayne Haskins for the fifth most TD passes in the country with eleven. Even if Georgia does blow the doors off of Mizzou, it's still not the worst thing in the world to watch top talent obliterate everything in its way. But who knows, as Mizzou has covered the spread the last three times they've played each other. Georgia is currently favored by two touchdowns.


Is Boston College for real this year? There have been many down years for the Eagles since the likes of Matt Ryan and BJ Raji were gracing Alumni Stadium with their presence, but some folks are saying that it's starting to look like BC is back. So far in 2018, they've stomped fellow Bay State opponents Umass and Holy Cross, winning 55-21 and 62-14, respectively. And as I had mentioned above, BC edged out Wake Forest last Thursday 41-34 for their first conference win of the year. Now they take on a winless Purdue team in West Lafayette, Indiana. Now, Purdue's 0-3 record isn't quite as putrid as it looks, as through three games they've lost by a combined total of eight points. Purdue could come into this one with a chip on their shoulder, with a feeling that their record is an inaccurate portrayal of them as a football team. Or, this could play out in the way you'd expect an undefeated ranked team playing a winless team inevitably would. Regardless, my main interest in this one is to see how legit BC is. Sure, they have a handful of challenges that lie ahead on the schedule which will bring far greater jeopardy than Purdue. But winning two straight road games against Power Five teams and starting 4-0 would deservedly turn some heads, and give further support for their presence in the top 25. For what it's worth, BC is currently favored by 6.5 points, and they've covered the spread in all three games this year. Purdue is 0-3 against the spread so far.

The Afternoon Games


I know many of you may find this statement shocking, offensive, and bold. But I don't care. I'm going to come out and say it. Alabama has, by far, looked like the best team in the country this season. Wow, felt good to get that off my chest. Look I know it isn't easy to be entirely intrigued by Alabama, once again, dismantling each and every opponent, every single week. And now with the addition of Tua under center, the once pretty-much-unstoppable force of Saban and his Tide are now seemingly-completely unstoppable, in the most literal sense. But the No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies are Alabama's biggest test so far this year. And from the minute sample size we have obtained through just a few games, we can conclude that A&M can hang with the big dogs. The Aggies came up a hair short against No. 2 Clemson in week two, when College Gameday came to College Station. A&M surprised 'Bama once upon a time in 2012, and it'd take a big surprise for the Crimson Tide, favored by 26 in this one, to take a loss at home.

No. 17 TCU luckily only dropped two spots in the rankings after blowing a lead to No. 4 Ohio State last week. The Horned Frogs now travel to Austin as the Longhorns are looking to win a third straight, after losing to Maryland opening weekend for the second consecutive year. Texas is riding high after thrashing USC and knocking them out of the rankings. As of right now, TCU is favored by a field goal. Beating a ranked team for the second straight week sure would alleviate some of the pressure Tom Herman is feeling from Texas fans and boosters. After TCU this Saturday afternoon, three of the next five opponents on the Longhorns' schedule are ranked in the top 25 (No. 5 Oklahoma, No. 15 Oklahoma State, No. 12 West Virginia), so if Herman wants to really turn this season around, he'll need to gain as much momentum as possible with a win at home against TCU.

The Georgia Tech game could be a solid triple  option to check in on, as they host No. 3 Clemson on Saturday. I, along with the masses, do not think this will be a close game. But can't complain about an in-conference matchup featuring a top-three team. Georgia Tech's offense could potentially execute some exciting plays for big yardage. And it's always worth observing the quarterback play in these early Clemson games, as it seems Trevor Lawrence stock has done nothing but rise since he arrived.

The Night Games


College Gameday will set up shop in Eugene, Oregon on Saturday as the No. 20 Ducks host No. 7 Stanford. The Pac 12 is such an intriguing conference to me; it has a somewhat mysterious feel to it. Yeah, it's mostly due to West Coast game being on later for the Midwest and East Coast spectators, but that unique aspect keeps me interested at least. So it's nice to see this foreign conference get the Gameday crew to shine the spotlight on Autzen Stadium for a top-25 matchup. I'm sure Willie Taggart is absolutely beaming that he took that dream job down in Tallahassee. The Ducks have been blessed with Justin Herbert as their quarterback, and if Oregon is going to pull this off, it's going to take an excellent performance by him under the home-field lights. Herbert is tied for the second most touchdown passes in the country (most of any Power Five quarterback) right now, tossing for six points twelve times. He also does have four picks so far on the year, and through three weeks Stanford's defense has allowed an average of 7.7 points per game, which is less than any other team. Right now Stanford is favored, and the spread seems to be varied between 1.5 and 2.5. Stanford is 2-1 against the spread, and Oregon has yet to cover this season.

Some more Pac 12 action will happen in true #Pac12AfterDark fashion as Herm Edwards and his 2-1 Arizona State Sun Devils travel up to Seattle to face the No. 10 Washington Huskies. When ASU hired Herm Edwards as head coach, it was written off as a disaster immediately. Although it's only been three games with him in Tempe, he's partially silenced some of the doubters by upsetting Michigan State in week two. That momentum halted last week in a 28-21 loss to San Diego State. But who knows, Herm could throw some schemes at Washington quarterback Jake Browning and really throw him off. If there's one major downfall to this Washington team, it's Browning's poise. As you probably know, Washington's sole loss came to No. 9 Auburn on Labor Day Weekend. The Huskies enter this game as heavy 17.5 point favorites and have only covered once so far in the 2018 season.


One of the earlier night games shouldn't be close by any means, but No. 5 Oklahoma hosting Army on Saturday is worth watching because Sooners' Kyler Murray has proven to be simply extraordinary.  The Sooners have been booming all-around, and their quarterback is playing like he'll be in New York City for the Heisman ceremony. As I said, this isn't projected to be a battle for the ages, as Oklahoma is favored by 31 points. But Oklahoma is not showing any signs of a hangover from last year's talent and success, and their return to the College Football Playoff keeps looking more likely.

No comments:

Post a Comment