The committee released their first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night, here's how they look followed by a full breakdown 1-25.
1. Georgia (8-0)
2. Alabama (8-0)
3. Notre Dame (7-1)
4. Clemson (7-1)
5. Oklahoma (7-1)
6. Ohio State (7-1)
7. Penn State (7-1)
8. TCU (7-1)
9. Wisconsin (8-0)
10. Miami (7-0)
11. Oklahoma State (7-1)
12. Washington (7-1)
13. Virginia Tech (7-1)
14. Auburn (6-2)
15. Iowa State (6-2)
16. Mississippi State (6-2)
17. USC (7-2)
18. Central Florida (7-0)
19. LSU (6-2)
20. NC State (6-2)
21. Stanford (6-2)
22. Arizona (6-2)
23. Memphis (7-1)
24. Michigan State (6-2)
25. Washington State (7-2)
Why the top-five looks the way it does
There is no debate that Georgia and Alabama are currently the two best teams in college football. While it may have been a little bit of a surprise to some that Kirby Smart's Bulldogs took over the No. 1 spot from Nick Saban's Crimson machine, the committee had more than enough reason bump Georgia ahead of Alabama. While Alabama's schedule may have seemed extremely difficult before the season began (then-No. 3 Florida State, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee), Georgia's schedule (No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 16 Mississippi State, Florida, Tennessee) has turned out to be a lot more impressive now that both of these SEC monsters sit at 8-0. Until Alabama beats another top-10 team, Georgia deserves to be No. 1.
As for spots 3-5, it is clear that the committee is emphasizing quality wins and strength of schedule. The AP and Coaches Polls both had Ohio State and Wisconsin ahead of Oklahoma and Notre Dame at the No. 3 and No. 4 spots, but the CFP flipped the script. The schedules thus far of Oklahoma and Notre Dame have been WAY more difficult than Wisconsin, so no argument here putting the 7-1 Irish and 7-1 Sooners ahead of the undefeated Badgers. As for Ohio State, I understand to a degree why Buckeye Nation is upset about being left out of the top-four given their quality win over Penn State last Saturday. Folks in Norman, specifically Baker Mayfield, are sticking to the argument of "we beat Ohio State so therefore we deserve to be ahead of them," which is a fair point. Even while a loss at home to an unranked Iowa State (who by the way is maybe the best story in CFB right now) team is far more damning than a loss at home to a top-five opponent and a legitimate playoff contender, Oklahoma's schedule up until now has been almost just as difficult as Ohio State's (Texas, Kansas State, Texas Tech vs. Rutgers, Maryland, Army) and the Sooners win the head-to-head tiebreak. Ohio State is ranked ahead of Penn State based on their head-to-head tiebreak, so if we're going to stay consistent, it's only fair that Oklahoma is ranked ahead of Ohio State in the first CFP rankings. Meanwhile, Clemson suffered a tough loss at Syracuse two weeks ago but responded with a convincing 14-points win over Georgia Tech in the rain on Saturday. Despite the loss to Syracuse, it's clear that the committee respects the difficulty of Clemson's schedule (wins over then-No. 13 Auburn, at then-No. 14 Louisville, and at No. 13 Virginia Tech). Being the defending national champs also definitely did not hurt Clemson's jump from No. 7 in the AP to No. 4 in the CFP rankings, but the Tigers definitely deserve to be where they are at considering the number of quality wins they have.
No.'s 6-10 and why the committee dropped Miami and TCU
We've already discussed why Wisconsin and Ohio State did not receive a spot in the top-five so no need to explain further. TCU holds two quality wins over then-No. 6 Oklahoma State and then-No. 23 West Virginia, but their 14-7 loss in ugly fashion to now-No. 15 Iowa State on Saturday in Ames was enough for the committee to bounce the Horned Frogs out of the top-five. Miami, meanwhile, is somewhat comparable to Wisconsin in the sense that it has not been all that pretty given how close some of their games have been (27-19 vs. Syracuse, 24-19 vs. UNC, 25-24 vs. Georgia Tech, 24-20 vs. Florida State) but the Hurricanes are still unbeaten. Miami fans may not like dropping from No. 6 in the Coaches Poll to No. 10 in the CFP rankings, but the Hurricanes will get the chance to prove themselves and move up the ranks with a pair of huge home matchups looming against Virginia Tech this weekend and Notre Dame the following week.
As for Penn State, the Nittany Lions are still a legitimate playoff contender and it is going to be difficult to vote against Saquon Barkley for the Heisman at the season's end. However, as of now, Penn State is not the best team in their division, and since the committee has emphasized the head-to-head approach, Penn State must remain behind Ohio State at No. 7, at least for the time being.
No.'s 11-16, couple CFP contenders and lot's of love for Mississippi State
Not too many Oklahoma State fans are going to argue with their No. 11 spot given the fact that their team has had some shaky performances on the road against some under-whelming competition (13-10 win @ Texas, 41-34 win @ Texas Tech). However, despite their early-season loss to TCU, Oklahoma State still controls their own destiny for a BIG 12 title, beginning this weekend against archrival Oklahoma in 'Bedlam.' If the Cowboys are able to take down Oklahoma and Iowa State these next few weeks, they will head to Arlington as BIG 12 regular season champs and play for the conference title against either TCU or Iowa State and possibly a spot in the playoff.
Each with one loss, both Washington and Virginia Tech are still alive for a spot in the playoff. The Hokies travel down to Miami on Saturday for a game that will decide their playoff fate as well as the ACC Coastal Division. If Virginia Tech wins out, including a potential ACC title game rematch with Clemson, it'll be hard for the committee to keep Justin Fuentes' Hokies out of the playoff given the quality of their schedule. Washington, meanwhile, had a pretty horrific 13-7 loss sprinkled between dominant wins over Colorado, Oregon State, California, and UCLA. After winning the PAC 12 last season at 12-1, Washington is going to need to do the same in 2017 to get back to the playoff but they may have to do it in absolutely jaw-dropping fashion on the scoreboard given how many one-loss teams with stronger schedules are ahead of them in the rankings. If Washington goes 12-1 and wins the PAC 12 but Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Clemson also all finish the season with one loss, the Huskies will likely be on the outside of the playoff field and represent the PAC 12 in the Fiesta Bowl. Their schedule just doesn't have the same difficulty of competition as a Clemson or Notre Dame.
All with two losses, Mississippi State, Iowa State, and Auburn are all more than likely done in terms of earning a playoff spot. However, all three of these teams are still major players for a conference championship and/or a New Year's Six bowl. Mississippi State holds quality wins over then-No. 12 LSU and Texas A&M, which the committee clearly put a premium on given the fact that the Bulldogs were ranked in the low-20's in both the AP and Coaches Polls. Losses to Georgia and Auburn will likely keep Mississippi State from an SEC West title unless Alabama completely implodes down the stretch. Auburn is in the same boat as Mississippi State in the sense that two losses likely keeps them out of the playoff conversation, despite both being "quality defeats" at Clemson and LSU. The Tigers still have the ability to bulk their bowl resume and ruin Alabama's undefeated season, which to the War Eagle faithful is just as/maybe even more important than making the playoff. Meanwhile, Iowa State is looking stronger than ever after defeating two top-five opponents the last several weeks, and while losses to Iowa and Texas will likely keep the Cyclones out of the playoff conversation, Iowa State controls their own destiny in the BIG 12. A big matchup looms against Oklahoma State, but holding head-to-head tiebreakers over Oklahoma and TCU may prove to be huge given that two of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU are all going to be finishing the regular season with at least two BIG 12 losses with Oklahoma still having to face Oklahoma State this weekend and TCU the following week. Matt Campbell has completely transformed the culture of this program and it should continue to improve as long as he remains at the helm (rumors of Campbell going to Florida have begun to arise).
No.'s 17-20, is Central Florida a legitimate playoff contender?
It appears as if Sam Darnold and USC were a tad bit overhyped now that the Trojans have fallen twice on the road to Washington State (30-27) and rival Notre Dame in an absolute blow out (49-14). With the playoff headed to Pasadena this season, USC's realistic goals have turned to winning the PAC 12 rather than getting into the playoff. USC will host Arizona on Saturday in a game that will likely decide the PAC 12 South, and if victorious, the Trojans will head back to Santa Clara for the second time in three years to take on either Stanford or one of the two Washington schools for a trip the Fiesta Bowl.
Meanwhile, Central Florida remains the lone non-power five/Notre Dame undefeated team, and while 7-0 is certainly impressive, there is just no way the committee puts UCF in the playoff over a one-loss Notre Dame, one-loss Ohio State, or one-loss Clemson. In order for UCF to get in, absolute mayhem has to occur around the college football world. We're talking Clemson losing to NC State, Miami losing to Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, Notre Dame losing to Stanford and Wake Forest, Alabama losing to Auburn and Mississippi State, Ohio State losing to Michigan and Michigan State, Wisconsin losing to Michigan and Minnesota, Penn State losing to Michigan State and Rutgers, Washington losing to Washington State and Utah, TCU losing out, and Virginia Tech losing to Virginia. And still, even if all of that wackiness were to occur, I still don't know if it's enough to get UCF into the playoff even if they run the table and win the American by daylight. Central Florida's schedule just doesn't compare to these power-five teams, and the committee has obviously put an emphasis on that aspect ranking UCF in the high-teens. Central Florida deserves a spot in the New Year's Six if they go undefeated, but not the CFP.
As for LSU, that 24-21 home loss to Troy pretty much ruined any chance of a possible playoff berth for Ed Orgeron's Tigers. The committee clearly feels that wins over Auburn, Syracuse, Ole Miss, and Florida are enough to make up for their blemish against Troy, hence why they are ranked No. 19 in the first CFP rankings. LSU can still add some silver lining to their season if they can somehow upend Alabama on Saturday, but this team is really just competing for an SEC West title at this point. NC State, meanwhile, has been a nice story in the ACC but like LSU, the Wolfpack are really only competing for a conference title with two losses on their resume.
No.'s 21-25, lots of PAC 12 and Memphis still hanging around
The No. 21-25 spots are all teams competing for conference titles rather than CFP berths. Two-losses for Stanford, Arizona, Michigan State, and Washington State mean that the best these teams can hope for really is to knock off a couple ranked opponents, get a little help, and earn a spot in their respective conference title games. Khalil Tate has completely turned around Arizona's season since taking over the starting quarterback job, as the Wildcats are now in the thick of it in the PAC 12 South. A win over USC this weekend could lock up the division and a spot in the conference title game for the U of A. Memphis, meanwhile, has looked impressive for a non-power five school with wins over Houston, then-No. 25 Navy, and then-No. 25 UCLA, but a 40-13 loss to Central Florida makes it impossible for this team to get into the playoff. Memphis can still get to a New Year's Six bowl, but that all depends on how they do in the AAC title game in a likely rematch with UCF.
Overall Analysis
It's the first release of the rankings and a lot is going to change, so if you're a Miami, Wisconsin, or Ohio State fan, you have more than enough time/games remaining to climb. There's a lot of football left, but for now, these rankings seem pretty fair. Let me know what you think or whether you believe somebody should be ranked higher/lower on Twitter @fLAno0.
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