As spectators of the great game of football, we have been graced with a phenomenal slate of conference championship games this weekend. It all starts Friday night as No. 12 Stanford faces off against No. 10 USC, and the following day brings us three top-ten matchups (No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 2 Auburn, No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 7 Miami, and No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Ohio State), and a game that just missed the cut of being a top-ten battle with No. 3 Oklahoma taking on No. 11 TCU. Another one that should get everyone fired up is No. 14 UCF vs. No. 20 Memphis.
Although there will be seemingly endless fantastic football on this weekend, let's take a deeper look at the 2017 SEC Championship: the Auburn Tigers (10-2) vs. the Georgia Bulldogs (11-1). The two will battle it out in Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 4 p.m. EST. This is the second time that the two teams will be playing each other; the first time came on November 11th, in which Auburn absolutely laid the hammer on Georgia 40-17. That is Georgia's lone loss of the season. Auburn's two losses have both come on the road to No. 1 Clemson (14-6) and LSU (27-23).
The Tigers momentum has been absolutely rolling through the month of November after they dished Georgia their only loss and did the same to Alabama in the Iron Bowl, coming out on top 26-14. I'm a firm believer in momentum (especially in college football), and if you aren't, you're a fool.
Sure, Georgia only has the one loss to Auburn, and they've beat Kentucky and Georgia Tech handedly since then. But even Georgia's quality wins/strength of schedule have slightly diminished over the course of the season. That one-point win over Notre Dame certainly doesn't look as impressive as it once did, as the Irish have dropped to No. 15 after getting stomped by Miami and closing out the regular season with a two-point loss to Stanford. Beating the Irish isn't necessarily an easy win, but it's not as prestigious as it seemed a few weeks ago. Georgia's biggest win besides that one would be the 31-3 victory over Mississippi State, who was No. 17 at the time. Mississippi State is now No. 23 with four losses on their record.
The Bulldogs were ranked No. 1 in the first two editions of the College Football Playoff rankings before losing to Auburn. And although they haven't fallen past No. 7 in the rankings, the Tigers' stock has done nothing but risen since the week ten CFP rankings (other than staying at No. 6 for two straight weeks).
It's extremely difficult to beat a team twice in one season, but I don't see Auburn losing this one. Bovada currently has Auburn as three point favorites, which I think they'll cover. This season, Auburn is 5-6-1 against the spread and Georgia is 8-4 against the spread, but I'm letting momentum persuade me more than history. I'm seeing the over/under of this one set at 48; I'd personally take the under as both of these defenses are stacked. Georgia has allowed the fifth fewest points per game with 13.8. Auburn has allowed the ninth fewest points per game with 16.4. As I had mentioned before, the final score the last time these two teams met was 40-17. However, due to this being the second meeting, I think Georgia will be able to hang with the Tigers more than they did a few weeks ago.
Both teams are heavily reliant on their run game, as they both flaunt superstar running backs in Nick Chubb and Kerryon Johnson. Chubb has helped the Bulldogs greatly this season, rushing for a total of 1,098 yards and 13 touchdowns. Auburn's Kerryon Johnson has been even more impressive, tallying 1,276 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. Johnson is currently listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, and Auburn coaches have said he's day-to-day without actually saying if he'll play or not. In my opinion, this is a must-play game for Johnson. I fully expect to see him play on Saturday, whether that takes cortisone shots or just some good old fashioned grit. If he'll be fully effective remains to be seen, but I'll be shocked if he sits this one out.
Saturday. 4 p.m. Eastern Time. No. 2 vs. No. 6. Let's ride. If Georgia does pull this one off, there will be some questions to be answered regarding who will represent the SEC in the CFP between them and Alabama. But for now, that's all speculation. Let's see how this one plays out first.
Touchdown celebrations and national anthem protests are the hot topics around the NFL right now. The New England Patriots have never been the type of team to configure some sort of extremely over-the-top celebration after crossing the goal line, but that isn't to say there have never been any gems. In fact, the Patriots have had some pretty awesome celebrations occur after notching six points during the Brady/Belichick era. Here are my favorites. 1. Rob Gronkowski's "Gronk Spike"
Obviously, nothing beats the Gronk spike. So simple, so easy, and so Gronk. The only thing better than watching Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown is the absolute beating he puts on the football and the earthquake he causes in China by spiking the living hell out of the thing into the ground. It's going to be hard for any player to ever top this.
2. LeGarrette Blount's End Zone Militia Pose
One of my favorite touchdown celebrations not only in Patriots history but all-time was LeGarrette Blount's pose with the end zone militia. Before signing with Philadelphia in free agency last offseason, Blount spoke about wanting to get the celebration into EA Sports' Madden NFL video game franchise. Had Blount stayed in New England, I bet this celebration would have made its way to PlayStation and Xbox either this year or next year, but I guess we'll never know. Still, loved it every single time.
3. James White's Wiggle
Patriot fans have fallen in love with this guy since his epic performance in Super LI, and his little high-to-low wiggle and pose for the camera that he's become trademarked for following a touchdown is smooth and sweet.
4. Wes Welker's Snow Angel
Short, sweet, and simple, yet somehow some scrooge in strips still found a way to throw a flag on Ole Wes for excessive celebration back in 2008. Live a little, buddy, snow angels are fun.
5. Steven Ridley's Door Kick
Say what you want about Steven Ridley's fumbling woes, but I absolutely loved him pounding his chest and kicking the living fuck out of an imaginary door every time he crossed the goal line. As a guy who loves kicking in doors, this was beautiful to watch.
6. Aaron Hernandez's Dice Roll And Making It Rain
A couple of words to describe Aaron Hernandez the person? Horrible, despicable, nut job. Aaron Hernandez the football player? Tough, skilled, and versatile. The guy was a murderer so I'm not going to go say much more than his touchdown celebration where he rolled the dice and made it rain had some swag to it.
The 2017-2018 NCAA hockey season is now a month in, and while it's definitely still early, we've learned a pretty decent amount throughout the first several weekends. Here's what we've learned so far from the ECAC and some things to expect throughout the rest of the year.
Cornell has climbed to No. 6 in the rankings following a 6-0 start, including a last-second 3-2 win over then-No. 5 and arch-rival Harvard on Saturday night. This team is looking like the class of the ECAC and has the size and depth to compete with anybody in the country.
Along with the undefeated Big Red, Clarkson has stormed out the gates to an 8-3-1 start and climbed to No. 8 in the rankings. The Knights are coming off a four-point weekend with a 5-3 win over Brown on Friday and a 4-1 win at Yale on Saturday. Clarkson is one of the deeper teams you'll see in college hockey, as their fourth line of all freshmen (Jack Jacome, Josh Dickinson, Kevin Charyszyn) is maybe the best fourth line in the entire country, especially after the trio combined for nine total points this past weekend against Yale and Brown.
The popular pick that many had to win the ECAC this season and make another run to the Frozen Four was Harvard, who is coming off two one-goal road losses this past weekend at Colgate (2-1) and Cornell (3-2). Consistency has been a bit of an issue for Harvard on both the offensive and goaltending fronts. One night, the Crimson are winning 5-0 against Dartmouth, and the next, they are giving up five goals in a lopsided loss to Yale. There's still a ton of time for Harvard to turn things around, but it might be time to start considering Clarkson or Cornell as the favorites to win the ECAC until Donato and the gang get it going.
Colgate, meanwhile, is a big-time sleeper. The Raiders are coming off a four-point weekend against Harvard and Dartmouth and got back in the top-20 of the rankings for the first time since 2014. Colgate may not be as deep as a team like Cornell or Clarkson, but they are certainly a team that can surprise a lot of people and contend atop the conference.
Freshman Dante Palecco (four goals, two assists) and junior Joe Snively (five goals, three assists) have guided Yale to a .500 start at 3-3, but the Bulldogs proved to clearly be a step behind Clarkson on Saturday, falling 4-1. A lot of hockey left but I'm not buying into Yale this season.
Union began the season 0-5 with five consecutive non-conference losses but rebounded with seven wins in their last eight contests, most recently earning a four-point weekend against Princeton (4-3 in overtime) and Quinnipiac (4-3). A big weekend looms on the prairie as the Dutchmen travel to No. 3 North Dakota for a chance to prove whether or not they are legit.
Princeton is a team that has caught some tough luck in the early going, as the Tigers tied Colgate 0-0 before losing 5-4 against Cornell and 4-3 in overtime at Union. Princeton earned a nice 6-2 bounce-back win over Rensselaer on Saturday but isn't on the game level as a Clarkson or Cornell.
Brown is starting to turn things around in terms of climbing out of the basement of the ECAC, but they are still likely a few years away from competing for a conference title and NCAA Tournament berth.
Quinnipiac began the season 3-1-1, including a weekend sweep at Northeastern. However, the Bobcats have now dropped four straight, getting outscored 15-6. This team needs more scoring.
Dartmouth hasn't looked that impressive, as the Big Green earned 0 points this past weekend with defeats at Cornell (3-0) and Colgate (3-2). Lack of scoring will keep this team from having success in conference play.
Things have gotten extremely ugly at St. Lawrence, as along with a 1-10-1 start, the Saints skated with just three lines of forwards on both Friday and Saturday night due to injuries. Ryan Lough was ejected for hitting from behind early in the second period against Brown, forcing St. Lawrence to skate with just eight forwards for more than half of Saturday night's game. Even without the injuries that are currently plaguing them, St. Lawrence is struggling to fill their roster and recruit. This team will finish dead last in the ECAC this year, no question and will continue to struggle in the coming years.
This Saturday evening brings us what should be a great battle between two ACC top 15 teams, as No. 10 Miami hosts No. 13 Virginia Tech under the lights. The Hurricanes are looking to continue their undefeated ways by notching an eighth straight win, as the Hokies are seeking to take control of the ACC Coastal division (and likely a spot in the national top ten). The game will be played at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on ABC.
As I type this on Thursday evening, Bovada has Virginia Tech as three point favorites. This is obviously subject to change. Wait, the undefeated, top-ten team playing at home as an underdog? Of course they are, because let's face the facts: the U has yet to play any legitimate competition. And when their competition is actually relatively respectable, they barely squeak out a win.
I mean it's not like Virginia Tech has a bunch of stellar wins to boast about, but it's not the worst scenario to have your only loss to the No. 4 Clemson Tigers. VTech lost that game by 14 points, which isn't too bad against a team like Clemson. I also do believe that if Miami eventually faces off against Clemson, they'd lose by at least the same margin. Virginia Tech has been exposed to a high power team this season, which Miami can't really say. Until this week.
Virginia Tech also has some decent wins in beating West Virginia 31-24 and Boston College 23-10. Neither team is in college football's top tier, but they're still notable wins that were won by more than five points like the 'Canes have been doing.
Easily the best aspect of this Miami team is the turnover chain. I never get sick of it.
The Virginia Tech offense has suffered six turnovers this season: four interceptions and two fumbles lost. So hopefully for everyone's sake we get to see some 'Canes be donned with the golden "U" chain.
The player to watch for the Hokies will be freshman quarterback Josh Jackson. This kid is an absolute stud; he's thrown for 2,032 yards and 17 touchdowns on 149 completions. Jackson has completed 62.3% of his throws, and has a QB rating of 153.9, the 17th best in the country.
However, Miami's defense has been notably good, allowing the 20th fewest points per game in the country with 18.7. Junior defensive back Michael Jackson has tallied four interceptions this season; the most in the country is six. The 'Canes defensive unit has allowed the 28th fewest total yards this season with 2,642.
On the flip side, Virginia Tech's defense doesn't mess around either. The Hokies D has allowed 2,276 total yards this year (10th fewest in the nation), which translates to 285 total yards allowed per game. Most impressively, the Hokies have only allowed 11.5 points per game. Only Alabama has allowed fewer points per game with 9.8.
Only 33 quarterbacks in the country have over 2,000 total passing yards this year, and Miami's junior QB Malik Rosier is one of them. On 252 attempts he's recorded 143 completions, 2,071 yards, 17 touchdowns (tied for 20th best), and a QB rating of 144.9 (32nd best in the country). Rosier has also rushed for 211 total yards and two touchdowns.
Virginia Tech and Miami have split the series in the last four times they've met; Hokies won 37-16 at home last year, Miami won in both 2015 (30-20 at home) and 2014 (30-6 in Blacksburg), and VTech came out on top 42-24 in 2013 at Miami.
Let's consider this the game that decides best out of five, and I'm taking the Hokies to win. I firmly believe that they're about expose the U. I'd wait to see if the line drops to -2.5 or something, but something tells me it will move the other way before kickoff. Either way, I am all in on Virginia Tech in this one.
Before I get too deep into this, the season's first College Football Playoff ranking is essentially useless. Not to be a downer in any sense, but so much can still happen with each team's remaining games that there's no need to freak out about the rankings. At this point, the committee can't really screw any particular team over; there's still enough time for each team to control their own destiny.
The College Football Playoff committee makes a big production of each week's rankings for one reason: get people talking about the College Football Playoff. Which it obviously does, seeing as I'm writing this post. So let's take a look at the rankings:
Georgia (8-0)
Alabama (8-0)
Notre Dame (7-1)
Clemson (7-1)
Oklahoma (7-1)
Ohio State (7-1)
Penn State (7-1)
TCU (7-1)
Wisconsin (8-0)
Miami (7-0)
Oklahoma State (7-1)
Washington (7-1)
Virginia Tech (7-1)
Auburn (6-2)
Iowa State (6-2)
Mississippi State (6-2)
USC (7-2)
UCF (7-0)
LSU (6-2)
NC State (6-2)
Stanford (6-2)
Arizona (6-2)
Memphis (7-1)
Michigan State (6-2)
Washington State (7-2)
Georgia and Alabama were clearly going to be the country's top two teams, and Georgia being ahead of the almighty Crimson Tide certainly adds a bit of a shock factor and increases discussion. But making a legitimate argument for this isn't that difficult to do, seeing as Georgia has more impressive wins by beating No. 3 Notre Dame and No. 16 Mississippi State. Other than their one-point win over the Fighting Irish, the Bulldog's closest game has been a 21-point win over Appalachian State in week one. The Bulldogs average margin of victory is 26.5 points.
Now that's not to say Alabama hasn't been great, boasting a margin of victory of 33.25; it's just that the Bulldogs have had a tougher schedule, which naturally gives them more quality wins. And again, this will get people talking more than if the always No. 1 Crimson Tide continued the trend. None of Alabama's past opponents appear in the newest rankings, but the next two weeks present No. 19 LSU and No. 16 Mississippi State. Also, 'Bama will face-off in the regular season's final week against No. 14 Auburn. So the Tide will have their chance to beat ranked opponents, and I genuinely believe they'll take care of every one of those teams.
Whether you like it or not, at this point in time, Notre Dame deserves that No. 3 spot. This isn't the same type of Notre Dame team that was in playoff talks at this time in 2015, whose main selling point was a close loss to Clemson. Yes, this 2017 Notre Dame team has a one-point loss to No. 1 Georgia as a résumé booster. But on top of that are wins over three currently ranked teams. And it's not just that they've beat these teams, they've smacked these teams. They beat the No. 24 Michigan State Spartans 38-18, beat up on No. 17 USC 49-14 under the lights, and took care of No. 20 NC State last week in a 35-14 victory. They have one of the most effective ground games in the country. Yes, Notre Dame's lack of a conference championship game will always give them one less selling point for a playoff spot, but a schedule like this is still tougher than most of the Power Five teams. The Irish still have to go up against No. 10 Miami and No. 21 Stanford. I also wouldn't sleep on the Navy game that falls in between those two ranked matchups. The fight for a playoff spot is far from over, but if they finish the season with a lone loss to Georgia, they deserve a spot. Well, depending on how Georgia potentially performs against Alabama in the SEC Championship. But still, Notre Dame has one of the best résumés in the country, and for right now the No. 3 spot is appropriate.
Clemson at No. 4 is no surprise, especially now that TCU and Penn State have joined the one-loss club after last weekend. Clemson's only remaining ranked opponent this regular season is this weekend against No. 20 NC State. Before Clemson beat Georgia Tech last week, they were upset by Syracuse. They're coming off a win that should have been more demanding, so I expect the Tigers to come out firing. They'll be eager to remind the college football world that they are one of the most complete teams in the country. Notre Dame fans, for their own team's sake, need the Wolfpack to compete at a high level with the Tigers, but I don't know if I see that happening. If things go as expected, I see Clemson facing off against Miami in the ACC Championship, and I see the Tigers handling the 'Canes with relative ease.
The No. 10 spot for Miami makes a lot of sense to me. Sure, they're undefeated, but the quality and fashion of their wins have been nothing to write home about. Miami should be extremely cautious of Virginia Tech this weekend, as I think the Hokies are very capable of exposing the U. Unfortunately for Miami, they have to host Notre Dame right after Virginia Tech. If you ask me, chances are wildly slim for Miami to come out of this stretch 2-0.
Oklahoma beating Ohio State, who beat Penn State, sets up the five through seven spots very nicely. It makes sense. From the eye test, I think Penn State would whoop Oklahoma into the next century. But when that perfect chain of who-beat-who works out the way it did, these rankings for this moment make complete sense. Oklahoma's lone loss to Iowa State looks much better now that the Cyclones are No. 15 after upsetting TCU on Saturday. And of course Oklahoma's win over Ohio State looks much better after the Buckeyes' comeback over Penn State. The Sooners' still have to go up against No. 11 Oklahoma State and No. 8 TCU in the next two weeks. I don't think Oklahoma will win both of these, and I think two in-conference losses would eliminate the Sooners' playoff hopes. I've got my fingers crossed for the Big 12 to implode its playoff chances.
Another thing I've got my fingers crossed for is the Wisconsin Badgers winning out and taking home the BIG 10 Championship. No. 9 is a rational spot for the Badgers to be at, seeing as their undefeated record hasn't been too heavily threatened by the quality of their opponents. It also doesn't help that Wisconsin slightly resembled garbage against Illinois, just a few days before the CFP committee came out with the rankings. But the Badgers are legit, no doubt about it. This isn't a team that will ever win with "style points." They grind 'em out, every single time. They don't have any ranked opponents left for the regular season, although Michigan and Minnesota shouldn't be taken too lightly. Whether they'd matchup against Ohio State or Penn State in the conference championship, that hasn't gone in the Badgers favor as of late (lost to Penn State 38-31 in 2016, lost to OSU 59-0 in 2014).
Although the Pac 12 is tied with the SEC for most teams in the current top 25 (five teams each; all other Power Five conferences have four), I can tell you right now that we will not see a Pac 12 representative in the College Football Playoff. They have a bunch of solid teams, but whoever the 2017 champion of that conference will be is, in fact, not elite. Not only do the other Power Five conferences have better arguments, but Notre Dame being in the picture just further diminishes the Pac 12's chances.
That's it for now. There are plenty of good games this weekend, I'll be previewing one of them before the weekend:
The committee released their first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night, here's how they look followed by a full breakdown 1-25.
1. Georgia (8-0)
2. Alabama (8-0)
3. Notre Dame (7-1)
4. Clemson (7-1)
5. Oklahoma (7-1)
6. Ohio State (7-1)
7. Penn State (7-1)
8. TCU (7-1)
9. Wisconsin (8-0)
10. Miami (7-0)
11. Oklahoma State (7-1)
12. Washington (7-1)
13. Virginia Tech (7-1)
14. Auburn (6-2)
15. Iowa State (6-2)
16. Mississippi State (6-2)
17. USC (7-2)
18. Central Florida (7-0)
19. LSU (6-2)
20. NC State (6-2)
21. Stanford (6-2)
22. Arizona (6-2)
23. Memphis (7-1)
24. Michigan State (6-2)
25. Washington State (7-2)
Why the top-five looks the way it does
There is no debate that Georgia and Alabama are currently the two best teams in college football. While it may have been a little bit of a surprise to some that Kirby Smart's Bulldogs took over the No. 1 spot from Nick Saban's Crimson machine, the committee had more than enough reason bump Georgia ahead of Alabama. While Alabama's schedule may have seemed extremely difficult before the season began (then-No. 3 Florida State, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee), Georgia's schedule (No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 16 Mississippi State, Florida, Tennessee) has turned out to be a lot more impressive now that both of these SEC monsters sit at 8-0. Until Alabama beats another top-10 team, Georgia deserves to be No. 1.
As for spots 3-5, it is clear that the committee is emphasizing quality wins and strength of schedule. The AP and Coaches Polls both had Ohio State and Wisconsin ahead of Oklahoma and Notre Dame at the No. 3 and No. 4 spots, but the CFP flipped the script. The schedules thus far of Oklahoma and Notre Dame have been WAY more difficult than Wisconsin, so no argument here putting the 7-1 Irish and 7-1 Sooners ahead of the undefeated Badgers. As for Ohio State, I understand to a degree why Buckeye Nation is upset about being left out of the top-four given their quality win over Penn State last Saturday. Folks in Norman, specifically Baker Mayfield, are sticking to the argument of "we beat Ohio State so therefore we deserve to be ahead of them," which is a fair point. Even while a loss at home to an unranked Iowa State (who by the way is maybe the best story in CFB right now) team is far more damning than a loss at home to a top-five opponent and a legitimate playoff contender, Oklahoma's schedule up until now has been almost just as difficult as Ohio State's (Texas, Kansas State, Texas Tech vs. Rutgers, Maryland, Army) and the Sooners win the head-to-head tiebreak. Ohio State is ranked ahead of Penn State based on their head-to-head tiebreak, so if we're going to stay consistent, it's only fair that Oklahoma is ranked ahead of Ohio State in the first CFP rankings. Meanwhile, Clemson suffered a tough loss at Syracuse two weeks ago but responded with a convincing 14-points win over Georgia Tech in the rain on Saturday. Despite the loss to Syracuse, it's clear that the committee respects the difficulty of Clemson's schedule (wins over then-No. 13 Auburn, at then-No. 14 Louisville, and at No. 13 Virginia Tech). Being the defending national champs also definitely did not hurt Clemson's jump from No. 7 in the AP to No. 4 in the CFP rankings, but the Tigers definitely deserve to be where they are at considering the number of quality wins they have.
No.'s 6-10 and why the committee dropped Miami and TCU We've already discussed why Wisconsin and Ohio State did not receive a spot in the top-five so no need to explain further. TCU holds two quality wins over then-No. 6 Oklahoma State and then-No. 23 West Virginia, but their 14-7 loss in ugly fashion to now-No. 15 Iowa State on Saturday in Ames was enough for the committee to bounce the Horned Frogs out of the top-five. Miami, meanwhile, is somewhat comparable to Wisconsin in the sense that it has not been all that pretty given how close some of their games have been (27-19 vs. Syracuse, 24-19 vs. UNC, 25-24 vs. Georgia Tech, 24-20 vs. Florida State) but the Hurricanes are still unbeaten. Miami fans may not like dropping from No. 6 in the Coaches Poll to No. 10 in the CFP rankings, but the Hurricanes will get the chance to prove themselves and move up the ranks with a pair of huge home matchups looming against Virginia Tech this weekend and Notre Dame the following week.
As for Penn State, the Nittany Lions are still a legitimate playoff contender and it is going to be difficult to vote against Saquon Barkley for the Heisman at the season's end. However, as of now, Penn State is not the best team in their division, and since the committee has emphasized the head-to-head approach, Penn State must remain behind Ohio State at No. 7, at least for the time being.
No.'s 11-16, couple CFP contenders and lot's of love for Mississippi State Not too many Oklahoma State fans are going to argue with their No. 11 spot given the fact that their team has had some shaky performances on the road against some under-whelming competition (13-10 win @ Texas, 41-34 win @ Texas Tech). However, despite their early-season loss to TCU, Oklahoma State still controls their own destiny for a BIG 12 title, beginning this weekend against archrival Oklahoma in 'Bedlam.' If the Cowboys are able to take down Oklahoma and Iowa State these next few weeks, they will head to Arlington as BIG 12 regular season champs and play for the conference title against either TCU or Iowa State and possibly a spot in the playoff.
Each with one loss, both Washington and Virginia Tech are still alive for a spot in the playoff. The Hokies travel down to Miami on Saturday for a game that will decide their playoff fate as well as the ACC Coastal Division. If Virginia Tech wins out, including a potential ACC title game rematch with Clemson, it'll be hard for the committee to keep Justin Fuentes' Hokies out of the playoff given the quality of their schedule. Washington, meanwhile, had a pretty horrific 13-7 loss sprinkled between dominant wins over Colorado, Oregon State, California, and UCLA. After winning the PAC 12 last season at 12-1, Washington is going to need to do the same in 2017 to get back to the playoff but they may have to do it in absolutely jaw-dropping fashion on the scoreboard given how many one-loss teams with stronger schedules are ahead of them in the rankings. If Washington goes 12-1 and wins the PAC 12 but Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Clemson also all finish the season with one loss, the Huskies will likely be on the outside of the playoff field and represent the PAC 12 in the Fiesta Bowl. Their schedule just doesn't have the same difficulty of competition as a Clemson or Notre Dame.
All with two losses, Mississippi State, Iowa State, and Auburn are all more than likely done in terms of earning a playoff spot. However, all three of these teams are still major players for a conference championship and/or a New Year's Six bowl. Mississippi State holds quality wins over then-No. 12 LSU and Texas A&M, which the committee clearly put a premium on given the fact that the Bulldogs were ranked in the low-20's in both the AP and Coaches Polls. Losses to Georgia and Auburn will likely keep Mississippi State from an SEC West title unless Alabama completely implodes down the stretch. Auburn is in the same boat as Mississippi State in the sense that two losses likely keeps them out of the playoff conversation, despite both being "quality defeats" at Clemson and LSU. The Tigers still have the ability to bulk their bowl resume and ruin Alabama's undefeated season, which to the War Eagle faithful is just as/maybe even more important than making the playoff. Meanwhile, Iowa State is looking stronger than ever after defeating two top-five opponents the last several weeks, and while losses to Iowa and Texas will likely keep the Cyclones out of the playoff conversation, Iowa State controls their own destiny in the BIG 12. A big matchup looms against Oklahoma State, but holding head-to-head tiebreakers over Oklahoma and TCU may prove to be huge given that two of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU are all going to be finishing the regular season with at least two BIG 12 losses with Oklahoma still having to face Oklahoma State this weekend and TCU the following week. Matt Campbell has completely transformed the culture of this program and it should continue to improve as long as he remains at the helm (rumors of Campbell going to Florida have begun to arise).
No.'s 17-20, is Central Florida a legitimate playoff contender? It appears as if Sam Darnold and USC were a tad bit overhyped now that the Trojans have fallen twice on the road to Washington State (30-27) and rival Notre Dame in an absolute blow out (49-14). With the playoff headed to Pasadena this season, USC's realistic goals have turned to winning the PAC 12 rather than getting into the playoff. USC will host Arizona on Saturday in a game that will likely decide the PAC 12 South, and if victorious, the Trojans will head back to Santa Clara for the second time in three years to take on either Stanford or one of the two Washington schools for a trip the Fiesta Bowl.
Meanwhile, Central Florida remains the lone non-power five/Notre Dame undefeated team, and while 7-0 is certainly impressive, there is just no way the committee puts UCF in the playoff over a one-loss Notre Dame, one-loss Ohio State, or one-loss Clemson. In order for UCF to get in, absolute mayhem has to occur around the college football world. We're talking Clemson losing to NC State, Miami losing to Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, Notre Dame losing to Stanford and Wake Forest, Alabama losing to Auburn and Mississippi State, Ohio State losing to Michigan and Michigan State, Wisconsin losing to Michigan and Minnesota, Penn State losing to Michigan State and Rutgers, Washington losing to Washington State and Utah, TCU losing out, and Virginia Tech losing to Virginia. And still, even if all of that wackiness were to occur, I still don't know if it's enough to get UCF into the playoff even if they run the table and win the American by daylight. Central Florida's schedule just doesn't compare to these power-five teams, and the committee has obviously put an emphasis on that aspect ranking UCF in the high-teens. Central Florida deserves a spot in the New Year's Six if they go undefeated, but not the CFP.
As for LSU, that 24-21 home loss to Troy pretty much ruined any chance of a possible playoff berth for Ed Orgeron's Tigers. The committee clearly feels that wins over Auburn, Syracuse, Ole Miss, and Florida are enough to make up for their blemish against Troy, hence why they are ranked No. 19 in the first CFP rankings. LSU can still add some silver lining to their season if they can somehow upend Alabama on Saturday, but this team is really just competing for an SEC West title at this point. NC State, meanwhile, has been a nice story in the ACC but like LSU, the Wolfpack are really only competing for a conference title with two losses on their resume.
No.'s 21-25, lots of PAC 12 and Memphis still hanging around The No. 21-25 spots are all teams competing for conference titles rather than CFP berths. Two-losses for Stanford, Arizona, Michigan State, and Washington State mean that the best these teams can hope for really is to knock off a couple ranked opponents, get a little help, and earn a spot in their respective conference title games. Khalil Tate has completely turned around Arizona's season since taking over the starting quarterback job, as the Wildcats are now in the thick of it in the PAC 12 South. A win over USC this weekend could lock up the division and a spot in the conference title game for the U of A. Memphis, meanwhile, has looked impressive for a non-power five school with wins over Houston, then-No. 25 Navy, and then-No. 25 UCLA, but a 40-13 loss to Central Florida makes it impossible for this team to get into the playoff. Memphis can still get to a New Year's Six bowl, but that all depends on how they do in the AAC title game in a likely rematch with UCF.
Overall Analysis
It's the first release of the rankings and a lot is going to change, so if you're a Miami, Wisconsin, or Ohio State fan, you have more than enough time/games remaining to climb. There's a lot of football left, but for now, these rankings seem pretty fair. Let me know what you think or whether you believe somebody should be ranked higher/lower on Twitter @fLAno0.
