Taking a look at the preseason Heisman odds

These odds are according to Bovada and are obviously subject to change

Before we get into the rationale of the specific prices on the preseason Heisman odds, it is important to take into account the apparent trends in recent Heisman winners:

• Since the turn of the century, only three  two running backs have been deemed college football's most outstanding player. Mark Ingram in 2009 and Derrick Henry in 2015. Reggie Bush is the only non-Alabama running back to win the Heisman, and although his award was vacated, you're a fool if you think that means anything. 
• Other than Bush, Ingram, and Henry, every other Heisman winner since the turn of the century has played quarterback.
• The last Heisman winner that did not play QB or RB was Charles Woodson in 1997.
• Lamar Jackson (2016 Heisman winner) was the first player in the College Football Playoff era to win the Heisman and not appear in the final four. In fact, the last Heisman winner before Lamar Jackson with four losses on the season was Tim Tebow in 2007.
• Two of the last five Heisman winners hailed from the ACC (Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston), with the SEC also boasting two (Derrick Henry, Johnny Manziel) and the Pac 12 produced one with Marcus Mariota.
• The 2016 preseason Heisman odds had Lamar Jackson at +5000 and the 2015 preseason odds had Derrick Henry at +1200. 

So now, let's take a look at the current preseason odds for who will be crowned as the most outstanding college football player in the country, which is a confusing way to define the award. Is "most outstanding" calculated by pure excitement? Extraordinary stats? Value to their team's success? It's all up for grabs, honestly, and that's what makes the anticipation of this trophy so much more perplexing, which is fantastic.

Sam Darnold, QB, USC Trojans, +400 

Sam Darnold is understandably the Heisman favorite with +400 odds. Betting on the favorite is typically a safe move, but the Heisman race is the Wild, Wild, West. It's easy to feel confident in the guy with the best odds, but it's very likely that some player will come out with spectacular play, despite a lack of preseason hype. But Darnold has a pretty damn good setup for the road to the Heisman; I'm confident the Trojans will win the Pac 12 and earn a spot in the playoff. Being in the spotlight is obviously largely helpful in a player's Heisman campaign. It also doesn't hurt that USC players are no stranger to college football's most coveted trophy: Reggie Bush in '05, Matt Leinart in '04, Carson palmer in '02, Marcus Allen in '81, Charles White in '79, Orenthal James Simpson in '68, and Mike Garrett in '65. It clearly helps to play for a storied program, so Sam Darnold's destiny is in his own hands. The Trojans are set to have an excellent defense this year, which will be key in boosting USC's stock, therefore boosting Darnold's likelihood of winning the Heisman.


Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State, +700

Saquon Barkley is an absolute beast, and the way he played last season makes these high Heisman hopes reasonable. But at the end of the day, today's college football landscape is set up for dual-threat quarterbacks to win. That is, unless you're the running back for a team that spectators will be watching in the National Championship. The only running backs to win the Heisman since 2000 have been two Alabama running backs that won the National Championship, and Reggie Bush who came up just short of a ring thanks to my boy Vince Young. So when it's all said and done, with much respect to Barkley's game, it just doesn't seem very likely that he'll finish the 2017 season with the Heisman on his living room mantle. For him to put up Heisman numbers this season against in the BIG 10 would be remarkable.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma, +800

Baker Mayfield has been in the Heisman discussion for the last few years now; in 2015 he finished 4th in Heisman voting and in 2016 he finished 3rd. Based on the upward trend, some people are thinking this could be the year Mayfield finishes first. And that's also a rational thought since Mayfield is able to put up big numbers with both his feet and his arm. But I'm sorry, Baker Mayfield will not be your 2017 Heisman Trophy winner. Mayfield might not even finish the season as the best QB in the Big 12, as Mason Rudolph is right on his tail. Rudolph has +2500 Heisman odds, which also won't happen.

Oklahoma's schedule won't do Mayfield any favors in his Heisman campaign, as I'm heavily expecting a week two blowout with the Sooners falling to Ohio State in Columbus. Not to mention that Mayfield will be playing under a new head coach this season, and I think the Big 12 is stronger than it has been in recent years. So do what you want, but I think throwing money on Baker Mayfield to win the Heisman is a wasteful move.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville, +800

Lamar Jackson, last season's Heisman winner who essentially came out of nowhere, has incredibly high expectations entering 2017. "Well he's clearly talented enough to win the Heisman, why can't he do it again?" Well, the only time a player won back-to-back Heisman trophies was in 1974-75 when Ohio State's running back Archie Griffin achieved the nearly impossible task. Sure, Jackson's supreme talent is still present, but his lack of expectations played a big role in his success. I think Jackson will still tally some impressive stats, but now defensive coordinators know what to expect from him. Yeah, it's definitely still tough to defend such an athletic specimen, but opponents' schemes will be solely focused on the Louisville QB, most likely disrupting his monster numbers. I think the expectations for Jackson in 2017 are simply too high, so regardless of his performance, it won't seem substantial unless he eclipses his 2016 stats. And for that reason, I'm out.

J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State, +800

Nothing too unfamiliar here, JT Barrett and the Ohio State Buckeyes are being highly praised in the preseason, with a forecast of a BIG 10 Championship and a berth in the College Football Playoff. Look, Ohio State is stacked. They're bound to make plenty of noise once again in 2017. Barrett is a talented QB. But "talented" and "outstanding" are two completely different words. In 2016, Barrett ranked No. 58 in the country for total passing yards (2,555), while finishing the season at the No. 30 in passing touchdowns (24). Again, Barrett is good. He's good enough to lead the team to a conference championship and a playoff game, in which they scored zero points. But even just Barrett's style of play makes me question his ability to win the Heisman; he doesn't "wow" the crowd. He doesn't leave you with a sense of amazement. In my mind, that's what a Heisman winner needs to do. And in my mind, you're better off investing your money in Blockbuster stock than in JT Barrett winning the Heisman.

Derrius Guice, RB, LSU, +1200

Derrius Guice is a fast, powerful, explosive running back that has the skill to be amongst the nation's best regarding stats. But even more so, Guice's explosive style of play gives him the "wow" factor that JT Barrett lacks. The way Guice can absolutely plow through defenders will certainly gain him some attention. His +1200 odds make Guice a reasonable bet with a risk factor that shouldn't make you lose any sleep. Guice's predecessor Leonard Fournette was the Heisman favorite entering 2017, but a nagging ankle injury snatched those hopes away from him.

Although LSU's schedule is a tough one, it does setup Guice to have some major "Heisman moments." The Oct. 14 matchup vs. Auburn and the Nov. 4 trip to Tuscaloosa against 'Bama stick out the most, as those two squads are clearly the top in-conference competition. These big time battles give players the opportunity to step up and make a name for themselves, much like Leonard Fournette didn't do. In last year's Alabama/LSU game, Fournette was limited to 35 total rushing yards. That essentially eliminated any Heisman chatter. If Guice can make some noise against these top tier defenses, while also toying with inferior defenses, he has a chance to be a Heisman finalist. It is also worth noting that the only LSU player to ever win the Heisman was running back Billy Cannon in 1959.

Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama, +1400

As I've already mentioned multiple times, two of the three Heisman-winning running backs since 2000 have worn an Alabama jersey. And I'd politely recommend you schedule an appointment with your eye doctor if you don't see any similarities to Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram when Bo Scarbrough carries the football. Bo is a massive human who moves quicker than any man that size should be able to move. The Crimson Tide are once again expected to remain the only team to appear in every College Football Playoff. Bo Scarbrough has many aspects going for him that could lead me to believe that he is capable of making the trip to New York for the Heisman ceremony. However, although Bo benefits from being surrounded by such a talented cast with the best coach in the country, the Tide's depth at running back could restrict Bo's production throughout the season. Bo will most likely be splitting time with Damien Harris, who ran for 1,040 yards and two touchdowns. So perhaps instead of winning the Heisman, Bo will be part of the best one-two running back punch in the country. But then again, Reggie Bush did have to share carries with LenDale White, so you never know.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama, +1600

The other key player in 'Bama's backfield, QB Jalen Hurts, enters 2017 with +1600 Heisman odds. I think Hurts gets overly criticized to be honest. As a freshman, Hurts won SEC offensive player of the year, led the Crimson Tide to an undefeated regular season, and was a Deshaun Watson miracle drive away from winning a National Championship. Let it be known that Alabama's failure to win yet another ring cannot be blamed on Hurts; the QB got 'Bama into the end zone, giving them a three point lead with 2:07 left on the clock. That loss is on the defense.

I like the way Hurts plays, and I don't understand why so many people think he's subpar, but that doesn't particularly mean I think betting on him for Heisman is a wise decision. I don't think Alabama's eventual week one loss to Flroida State will help Hurts' cause. I have a feeling the Seminole defense will apply a surplus of pressure on the sophomore quarterback. Also, I can't help but be bothered by the fact that an Alabama quarterback has never won the Heisman. But on the other side of that argument, three of the last ten Heisman winners were SEC quarterbacks, more than any other conference.

Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State, +1800

I personally believe that Deondre Francois is the best bet on this list, especially at +1800. Francois is a talented quarterback without a doubt, and he has a defensive unit that will do a great job with giving him backup. With Dalvin Cook gone to the NFL, Francois is officially the go-to guy for Florida State's offense. I've mentioned how a few of these players are fortunate enough to have a schedule that supports their Heisman campaign. That applies to nobody more than Deondre Francois and the Seminoles. The 'Noles open up the season against Alabama, they have their classic ACC battles against Clemson, Louisville, & Miami, topped off by the in-state rivalry against Florida in the regular season's final week. There's a whole lot of meat in that sandwich, and if Florida State can finish that sandwich without any hiccups, I don't see why Deondre Francois could go over the heads of Heisman voters. With such a good price and a schedule tailored for a Heisman season, I'd recommend investing in Deondre Francois.