Just two weeks after the designation for assignment of Pablo Sandoval, it appears as though the magnificent list of "worst free agent signings in Red Sox history" could use an update.
Now, David Price's performance has been leaps and bounds better than Sandoval, Carl Crawford and Rusney Castillo, the three most common answers when it comes to biggest free agent bust in Fenway lore.
Price's ERA with the Red Sox (3.95) is nowhere near worth the $31 million per year he's earning, but it's still a better figure than any number of the other big name starting pitching acquisitions by the Sox this millennium this side of Chris Sale. Price's ERA with the Red Sox is lower than that of Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Matt Clement, David Wells, Jake Peavy, Rick Porcello and -- stunningly -- the exact same as Curt Schilling's from 2004-2007.
Say what you want about Schill. He is crazier than your craziest uncle by a factor of 10. But don't tell me he isn't the preeminent big game pitcher of our generation. He was also 37 when he came to Boston, whereas Price was 30.
Price could absolutely be salvageable beyond this point. Look no further than Lackey's resurgence in 2013. But this isn't really about that.
For what seems like the umpteen millionth time, this comes back to John Henry and/or Larry Lucchino's decision to offer Jon Lester a four-year, $70 million contract extension prior to the 2014 season.
Full disclosure: Lester was coming off a mediocre 2012 season (9-14, 4.82 ERA) and a good-not-great 2013 (15-8, 3.75 ERA).
Lester was seemingly at a crossroads about halfway through the '13 campaign, but over his final 10 regular season starts he posted a 2.19 ERA. Then he went 4-1 with a 1.56 ERA in the playoffs that year, holding opponents to a paltry .560 OPS.
Was that not a big enough sample size to prove Lester was back on track? Apparently not. Warrants mentioning that save for cancer in his rookie season (2006) and the recovery time necessary into '07, Lester had made 31 starts or more for six straight seasons. Think about that. Cancer was the only thing that could slow Lester down. And he kicked its ass.
As we near the three year anniversary of the deal that sent Lester (and Hacksaw Jonny Gomes) to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes on July 31, 2014, the contrast between Lester and his de facto replacement in Price has never been more apparent. It's even more apparent now than that time when Lester went 3-1 with a 2.02 ERA for the World Champion Cubs last October while Price couldn't even make it out of the fourth inning in his lone postseason start for the Red Sox a season ago.
If you don't trade Lester at the deadline in '14, you don't ultimately spin off Cespedes for Porcello, who did win the American League Cy Young award last season. Porcello's ERA (3.15) was still over half a run higher than Lester's with the Cubs (2.44; Lester wound up finishing second in Cy Young voting to Max Scherzer).
So in a sense, this comes down to having only Lester, or having Porcello AND Price. Well, what if I told you that you also could have thrown virtually the same contract figure at Scherzer after the '14 season (seven years, $210 million) that Price wound up signing after the '15 season (seven years, $217 million)?
The inability of Henry and Lucchino to read the market created an impasse with Lester, who ultimately signed with the Cubs for six years, $155 million after the 2014 season, forced the Red Sox to sign the petulant child that is David Price after the 2015 "Five Aces" debacle.
Say Lester had actually taken a "hometown discount" (five years, $115 million rather than $70 million? Spit balling here), the Red Sox still could have conceivably made a run at Scherzer.
They likely would have had to outbid the Nationals for Scherzer; perhaps the deal would have stretched to $220 million, which still would have made Scherzer the highest paid pitcher in the game over Clayton Kershaw. I'm assuming that's what he and agent Scott Boras wanted to ensure all along.
Do the math; that's Lester and Scherzer for $335 million vs. Price and Porcello (who signed an $82.5 million extension) for $299.5 million.
How could Red Sox ownership have offset those costs? Maybe by not throwing $95 million at Sandoval in the first place in the very same off-season. A kid named Travis Shaw was coming up through the minor leagues at third base right around that time.
I'm not saying Price's elbow isn't sore at all, but then again, how severely did Rodney Dangerfield actually break his arm in Caddyshack?
At the very least, Price will be able to watch the Baseball Hall of Fame inductions this weekend.
Three new players are getting inducted, or one for each World Series ring Jon Lester now has in his career.
The timing of Price's injury sure won't help him trend away from that bust label he's earning. But again, it's Hall of Fame weekend. He could check out Dennis Eckersley's which is, in fact, on display in Cooperstown.
No comments:
Post a Comment