Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Please don't panic about the first set of CFP rankings

It's hypocritical how often I say certain renditions of college football rankings aren't as relevant as many make them out to be, while talking so much about the rankings. And I'm not completely brushing off this week's initial College Football Playoff top-25, not in the slightest. Of course they matter, as it gives us an idea of what values the playoff committee holds. But the amount of overreactions I've read today has been absurd. All that means though, is they've done their best job to get people talking and debating, which is exactly what they want. The season's first College Football Playoff rankings are as follows:

  1. Ohio State (8-0)
  2. LSU (8-0)
  3. Alabama (8-0)
  4. Penn State (8-0)
  5. Clemson (9-0)
  6. Georgia (7-1)
  7. Oregon (8-1)
  8. Utah (8-1)
  9. Oklahoma (7-1)
  10. Florida (7-2)
  11. Auburn (7-2)
  12. Baylor (8-0)
  13. Wisconsin (6-2)
  14. Michigan (7-2)
  15. Notre Dame (6-2)
  16. Kansas State (6-2)
  17. Minnesota (8-0)
  18. Iowa (6-2)
  19. Wake Forest (7-1)
  20. Cincinnati (7-1)
  21. Memphis (8-1)
  22. Boise State (7-1)
  23. Oklahoma State (6-3)
  24. Navy (7-1)
  25. SMU (7-1)

I've seen a lot of opinions and overreactions about Clemson, the undefeated reigning National Champion, being on the outside looking in. You can hoot and holler about how they have more wins than anyone in the country, and that the committee has no reason to doubt a program with so much recent success. You can scream and shout about how they've played nobody because the ACC is putrid, they had a close win over North Carolina, and Trevor Lawrence isn't living up to the expectations set in the preseason. There are valid points on both sides of that argument, but please don't waste too much of your precious breath on that for the moment. These rankings will undoubtedly work themselves out. If Clemson is as good as they should be, they will win out. It is impossible for more than two of the four teams ahead of them to finish without a loss, as Alabama plays LSU and Ohio State plays Penn State. So it's inevitable for Clemson to hop into the top-four pretty much immediately, making all of that yapping and yelling completely useless.

I personally thought the top two would be LSU first, followed by Ohio State. I don't particularly disagree with the flip side of that though; the Tigers have the most impressive accomplishments thus far in terms of scheduled opponents, while Ohio State has simply looked the best in terms of straight up domination and skill. It seems pretty obvious that bias played a factor in Alabama being No. 3, as they honestly haven't beaten anyone noteworthy, much like Clemson. It's absolutely fine that Clemson's recent success doesn't automatically grant them a top spot, as these rankings should have nothing to do with previous rosters in seasons past. But that should also be the case for Alabama. And again, we can discuss all we want about how 'Bama ain't played nobody. Yet in a few days that discussion will be dead, as the Tide play the No. 2 team in the country. So by the time Saturday evening rolls around, Alabama will have certainly played somebody. If they lose, well they'll obviously no longer be considered the No. 3 team nationwide and they'll drop in the rankings. If they beat LSU, they'll have some pretty convincing evidence that they're a top-two team in the country. It's  that simple.

Some may think Minnesota is underrated at No. 17, as they have yet to lose a game. But let's remember, both resume and the eye-test are taken into consideration. Minnesota hasn't really caught the attention of many eyes with their play, and their pristine record has come against a bunch of chumps. The Golden Gophers will have their chance to increase approval ratings when they play Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. If they beat those teams, then of course they're legit. If they don't, then they are who we thought they were.

The Big 12 and Pac 12 Champs (presumably a combo of Oklahoma/Baylor and Oregon/Utah) might still be on the outside looking in even if they win out. They'd likely need some pieces to fall into place in their favor, but these things will play out and if there's still drama after the conference championships are done, then the heated discussions will be worth it. For now, there's really no reason to get worked up about the CFP top-25. When Ohio State won the inaugural College Football Playoff, they were No. 16 in the committee's first rankings. No team that is capable of reaching the playoff is currently in a situation completely out of their hands right now.

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