Wednesday, November 20, 2019

College football playoff rankings: week twelve

The weekend's rankings that were just revealed have almost the exact same top-10: all ten teams are still in there, but the numbers eight, nine, and ten shuffled amongst each other after this past weekend's games. Here's what we've got for week twelve:
  1. LSU (10-0)
  2. Ohio State (10-0)
  3. Clemson (11-0)
  4. Georgia (9-1)
  5. Alabama (9-1)
  6. Oregon (9-1)
  7. Utah (9-1)
  8. Penn State (9-1)
  9. Oklahoma (9-1)
  10. Minnesota (9-1)
  11. Florida (9-2)
  12. Wisconsin (8-2)
  13. Michigan (8-2)
  14. Baylor (9-1)
  15. Auburn (7-3)
  16. Notre Dame (8-2)
  17. Iowa (7-3)
  18. Memphis (9-1)
  19. Cincinnati (9-1)
  20. Boise State (9-1)
  21. Oklahoma State (7-3)
  22. Iowa State (6-4)
  23. USC (7-4)
  24. Appalachian State (9-1)
  25. SMU (9-1)

Easily the biggest storyline to come out of last weekend is Tua Tagovailoa's season-ending hip injury in Alabama's trip to Mississippi State. Tua has certainly been one of the most exciting players these past few seasons; watching him sling it to speedy 'Bama receivers is fun as hell. He's obviously one of the top quarterbacks in the country and his absence would undoubtedly hurt Alabama's shot at beating a playoff opponent, if the No. 5 Tide manage to get there.

But that's what I want to talk about. It was already a little bothersome that Alabama is the first team out of the final four as of now, seeing as they haven't beat anyone of note. And now with no Tua under center? No thank you. Please, do not put them in there if LSU beats Georgia. "But what about Cardale Jones?!?! Anything can happen!" Valid point; if the roster is truly talented enough, they'll make it work with a backup QB, much like the 2014 Ohio State Buckeyes did with their third string guy. But Ohio State convinced the committee to put them in over TCU because they absolutely smashed Wisconsin 59-0 in the BIG 10 Championship. The Crimson Tide won't have the chance to leave that final impression in the conference title game, seeing as they lost their single most important regular season game. And look, I know a playoff spot probably shouldn't be decided on an unexpected injury. But for the purpose of entertainment value, a lack of Tua is absolutely crucial. 

So who gets the nod if 'Bama doesn't deserve it? Obviously things still need to work themselves out. If Georgia does end up beating LSU in the SEC Championship, it'd be an easy final four of those two along with Clemson and Ohio State (assuming the Tigers and Buckeyes win out). But LSU will obviously be the favorites against Georgia, so in these scenarios let's assume Georgia ends up with two losses, which I don't think should get them in.

Auburn's loss to Georgia last weekend hurt the resumes of both Alabama and Oregon. If 'Bama tops Auburn in the Iron Bowl, it certainly won't look as impressive had Auburn came out with a win. And as we know, Auburn is the only team that Oregon has lost to. The fact that the loss came in week one certainly helps the Ducks, as they've look good ever since, and have seemed to improve over the course of the season. The committee tends to like that. Oregon hasn't racked up a ton of wins over quality opponents, as the Pac 12's depth is that of a kiddie pool (the ACC's is a puddle after a mild rain storm). Oregon's one top-25 win was over No. 23 USC, who just entered the rankings this week. USC is also the only team that has beaten No. 7 Utah. That loss doesn't really hold a whole lot of value for the Utes, but USC should remain in the rankings as their only game left is very winnable against UCLA. Last weekend was huge for both Oregon and Utah in the eye test, as they both smoked their competition: the Ducks beat Arizona 34-6 and Utah smacked UCLA 49-3.

I guess it really won't matter after they take on Ohio State in Columbus this weekend, but for now I kind of feel like Penn State should be ranked ahead of both Oregon and Utah. The Nittany Lions have a more impressive resume: their sole loss to No. 10 Minnesota is more impressive than both of the Pac 12 teams' losses. They also have two top-20 wins (No. 13 Michigan and No. 17 Iowa), which neither the Ducks or Utes can claim. Again, this argument will probably wipe itself out after Penn State gets mopped by the Buckeyes this weekend, but it's worth noting. 

Oklahoma's massive comeback last Saturday dished Baylor their first loss of the season, causing the Bears to drop just one spot and the Sooners to jump up just one spot. So the committee clearly considers Oklahoma to be a very good team, since losing to them barely took a toll on Baylor's value. But the appraisal of Oklahoma in Baylor's sense doesn't really translate to Oklahoma's benefit of the situation. Either way, the Sooners' loss to Kansas State is worse than any loss suffered by the teams ranked ahead of them. They will have a chance to beat Baylor a second time in the Big 12 Championship, which would add to their squeaker of a win against No. 22 Iowa State, and their potential win over No. 21 Oklahoma State. Who knows, though, if Oklahoma State would stay in the rankings after dropping one to the Sooners.

Alright, as you were. Had to get that all out.


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