Down goes Oklahoma! Jalen Hurts and the Sooners simply got punched straight in the mouth by Kansas State last weekend, and their nearly miraculous comeback was rejected by the Cats as they were able to hold on to a 48-41 upset. The Big 12 has done a pretty good job of destructing itself, but there is one remaining unbeaten team: the 7-0, No. 12 Baylor Bears. Baylor's remaining schedule includes West Virginia (this Thursday night), a visit to TCU, No. 10 Oklahoma, Texas, and a trip to Kansas. So definitely don't be shocked if the Big 12 continues to eat itself up, further diminishing the conference's playoff hopes. The Big 12 doesn't seem to have the depth its had in recent years, so even if a team wins the conference with only one loss, I don't think it'll impress the playoff committee all that much.
If the Big 12's shot at the playoff is looking less legitimate, does that bring the Pac 12 back into the conversation? The only two Pac 12 teams in the rankings are No. 7 Oregon and No. 9 Utah, and I think the only scenario in which the conference could be considered in playoff discussions would require Oregon to be a one-loss Pac 12 Champion. If Utah wins out and takes home the conference title, their one loss to USC would be comparable to Oklahoma's one loss at Kansas State (assuming Oklahoma would win out, which isn't a given). The Pac 12 lacks the same depth that the Big 12 does, and that's when the eye test starts to play a bigger role than the résumé. And if Oregon wins out, they'd still have one loss. However, that lone loss to Auburn at a neutral site in week one holds far more value than the in-conference losses suffered by the Utes and Sooners. I know I've ranted about "good loss" being a stupid term, but it's undoubtedly something the playoff committee at least ponders. Winning out does not guarantee the Ducks a playoff spot, not in the slightest. I think in order for either the Pac 12 or Big 12 to be considered, things would need to shake out a certain way in the SEC.
So how exactly will things shake out in the SEC? Guess what, I have absolutely zero idea. But I do believe this year has far more potential for parity this deep into the season. It's definitely easiest to imagine a playoff scenario in which we get Ohio State, Clemson, the SEC Champ (expected to be LSU or 'Bama), and then the fourth spot being granted to the eventual loser of the LSU vs Alabama game. As simple as it is to envision that, both teams would need to win out after their meeting on Nov. 9. We also cannot forget that Alabama still has to play at Auburn to close out the regular season. And this weekend we have essentially a play-in game to represent the East in the SEC Championship between No. 8 Georgia and No. 6 Florida. The Gators have mixed it up with two out of the SEC West's best three: they topped Auburn 24-13 before falling short 42-28 to LSU (they do not play Alabama). Georgia has not gone up against any of those three, although they play Auburn on Nov. 16. So there's definitely still plenty that can and will happen in the SEC, and that clear-cut playoff picture is far from confirmed. But if there is a conference to boast two playoff teams, it's the only conference that's done it before.Coach. Leader. Hype Man.@Coach_EdOrgeron's sportsmanship is next level 👏 #SECInside pic.twitter.com/10Leki6Ax2— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 30, 2019
But what about the BIG 10? Yes, they do have two teams currently in the top-five with No. 3 Ohio State and No. 5 Penn State (for what it's worth I think OSU should be No. 2 right behind LSU). The two face off on Nov. 23 in Columbus. The winner of that will go on to play in Indy for the conference title. One of those teams could end up with only one loss to the eventual conference champ. But if it does play out that way, the BIG 10 will not have two playoff teams. This isn't the SEC, so those accomplishments don't hold the same weight for the playoff committee. The only way they would have two teams in there is if every other conference imploded in the next month or so. I don't make the rules. We have a clash of undefeateds in the BIG 10 this weekend as Penn State travels to the Twin Cities to take on the No. 13 Golden Gophers. This will be undefeated Minnesota's first game against a ranked opponent. Following this weekend, they have to hit the road to play No. 19 Iowa. Things will figure themselves out, and whether you like it or not that likely means Ohio State is winning the conference and heading to the playoff.
Four out of the top five teams have a bye this week, and Clemson plays an FCS team, so this weekend's slate immediately takes a hit. The weekend's marquee matchup will be in Jacksonville between Florida and Georgia for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. The Bulldogs are currently favored by 6.5. The two teams' only losses both came on the same day, Oct. 12 when Georgia was stunned in OT by South Carolina, while the Gators couldn't hang on any longer and were left in the dust by LSU. So very different calibers of losses, but none of that will matter come Saturday afternoon. This will be the 97th meeting between these rivals: Georgia leads the series 51-43 with two ties. Since 2008, each program has taken its turn winning three years in a row; Florida won 2008-10, Georgia was victorious 2011-13, and then the Gators again from 2014-16. The Bulldogs came out on top in 2017 and 2018, so we'll see if they can continue this recent trend and make it three straight. The last time the SEC East was represented in the conference championship by someone other than Florida or Georgia was in 2014, when Mizzou lost to Alabama 42-13.
Another noteworthy afternoon game has the No. 9 Utah Utes on potential upset alert, as they travel to Seattle to take on the Washington Huskies. Utah is favored by 3.5. The Huskies were No. 25 until they fell out of the rankings last week after failing to hang on with Oregon, resulting in a 35-31 loss at home. Utah has only allowed 10.3 points per game, the fourth fewest in the country (and the fewest of any non-BIG 10 team).
The only top-25 matchup aside from Florida vs Georgia comes in the form of some G5 action, as No. 15 SMU heads to Memphis to play the No. 24 Tigers. Memphis has jumped in and out of the rankings a few times, and their only loss was by two points on the road at Temple. They re-entered the polls after narrowly topping Tulsa 42-41 last Saturday. SMU, on the other hand, has been ranked since week six. And as they've continued to remain unbeaten, they've continued to move on up in the world. SMU has former Longhorn quarterback Shane Buechele under center, and running back Xavier Jones has recorded 14 rushing touchdowns (tied for fourth most in the country). The 'Stangs are putting up 43 points per game, the sixth most in the nation, while Memphis ranks at No. 10 in points per game with 39.5. As I write this, Memphis is favored by six points at home on Saturday night.
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