- Ohio State (12-0)
- LSU (12-0)
- Clemson (12-0)
- Georgia (11-1)
- Utah (11-1)
- Oklahoma (11-1)
- Baylor (11-1)
- Wisconsin (10-2)
- Florida (10-2)
- Penn State (10-2)
- Auburn (9-3)
- Alabama (10-2)
- Oregon (10-2)
- Michigan (9-3)
- Notre Dame (10-2)
- Iowa (9-3)
- Memphis (11-1)
- Minnesota (10-2)
- Boise State (11-1)
- Cincinnati (10-2)
- Appalachian State (11-1)
- USC (8-4)
- Virginia (9-3)
- Navy (9-2)
- Oklahoma State (8-4)
This weekend for the conference championships, we have the following teams facing off:
- SEC: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 4 Georgia
- BIG 10: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Wisconsin
- Big 12: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 7 Baylor
- Pac 12: No. 5 Utah vs. No. 13 Oregon
- ACC: No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 23 Virginia
- AAC: No. 17 Memphis vs. No. 20 Cincinnati
The SEC title between LSU and Georgia is obviously colossal, featuring two of the nation's top-four teams. I get the feeling that if Georgia can pull it off, LSU will only drop to the No. 4 spot, leading to a playoff with two SEC teams for the second time. There's no guarantee of that happening, but I could definitely see it. LSU is currently favored by 7.5 over the Bulldogs.
Wisconsin jumped up four spots after beating Minnesota and taking home Paul Bunyan's Axe on Saturday. I think the Badgers' new position in the rankings would allow them a playoff berth if they overcome a 16.5 point spread in Indy on Saturday. That seems like it'll take miraculous measures as the Buckeyes look like an absolute freight train going full speed ahead. But if the seemingly impossible happens, defeating a team as impressive as Ohio State would certainly catapult the Badgers four more spots, especially since beating Minnesota did just that.
The ACC Championship is expected to be a complete blowout, as we've got the reigning National Champs taking on a team that just entered the rankings. Clemson is favored by 28 against Virginia, as the Tigers look to extend their win streak to 28. It seems that people have convinced themselves that this Clemson team isn't of the same caliber as the program's heavyweights of recent years. Anyone who knows what they're talking about wouldn't consider this team an underdog by any means. But I do genuinely think the vast majority of football fans haven't had the Tigers in the front of their minds because of the ACC's poor quality. Those people will be very surprised by Clemson when the playoff rolls around, because this team has not been messing around in the slightest. A playoff win is certainly not a given whatsoever, but anyone who completely writes off Clemson against either LSU or Ohio State because of a weak conference, is quite frankly in the wrong. Since that 21-20 nail biter over UNC many weeks ago, the Tigers have allowed an average of 8.71 points per game, while scoring an average of 50.42 points through those last seven games. So yes, Clemson plays an extremely easy schedule, but they've been making an absolute mockery of their competition.
The biggest question heading into this weekend is, what happens if Utah joins LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson as conference champions? And how will the outcome of the Big 12 Championship affect the Utes' playoff shot? Oregon was in the same discussion before losing to Arizona State two weekends ago, but now their role in the playoff discussion is just potentially disrupting Utah's path to getting in. So far, the Utes have only fallen to No. 22 USC: a respectable seven-point loss all the way back in September. Other than that loss, only one game involving Utah has been separated by less than two possessions: a 33-28 victory on the road at Washington. In all of the Utes' other wins, their average margin of victory has been 29.4. So sure, you can sit there and make the argument that the Pac 12 is subpar, and that Utah's schedule lacks many major challenges. But aside from losing to a solid USC team, they seriously took care of business throughout the whole season. Despite Oregon now having two losses (the Auburn loss looks slightly better after the Iron Bowl last Saturday), it would be a high quality win in a conference championship game after steamrolling the majority of opponents for Utah. This Friday night, Utah is favored by 6.5 against the Ducks.
Oklahoma's sole loss came in late October by seven points to Kansas State, which obviously isn't all that great whatsoever. But what's more concerning is Oklahoma's lackluster rebound since adding a tally to the loss column. After losing to K-State, the Sooners then edged out Iowa State by a single point, followed by a three point victory over Baylor, and then a four point win over TCU. Yes, the Baylor game added a top-ten win to Oklahoma's resume. And yes, Baylor has performed well this season, as Oklahoma has been their only loss. But you can't sit there and tell me that beating Baylor by a field goal translates to deserving a spot to compete with LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson. If the Sooners do indeed beat Baylor for a second time in the Big 12 title game, I think they'll need to win in very convincing fashion (like, by at least three possessions) to really torque themselves into the playoff.
And what if Baylor avenges their only loss to Oklahoma, crowning the Bears as Big 12 Champions? I'd say the same thing goes for them, too; they would need to really dominate this game in order to get in over Utah (assuming they beat Oregon). Both of these teams seem less impressive to me than Utah. Back when Ohio State convinced the playoff committee by winning the conference championship 59-0 over Wisconsin, the Big 12 stupidly didn't have a conference championship game. That eventually left TCU (or potentially Baylor) out of the playoff. They obviously do now, but just the accolade of winning your conference shouldn't automatically get you in. The BIG 10 trophy didn't get Ohio State into the playoff in 2014, it was the fact that they capitalized on one final opportunity to prove their worth to the committee by playing well and turning heads. The committee is only human; recency bias undoubtedly plays a factor. Neither Baylor or Oklahoma will get in over a Pac 12 champion Utah if the Big 12 Championship is kept close by either team. And even if the Sooners or Bears dominate this game, they better hope that if Utah wins, it's in a gritty nail biter.
Come Sunday evening, all of this ranting and raving and hypothesizing throughout the year about the potential playoff will be rendered useless. But once again, I couldn't have had a better time doing it. Let's see how this weekends's games turn out, and let's get us a finalized playoff picture.
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