Auburn leads the all-time series between these two programs, with a 43-38 record against the Gators. Two meetings ended in ties, way back in 1939, and then a decade later in 1949. This will be the first time they've played since 2011. The Tigers have taken the last three: winning 17-6 in 2011, 20-17 in 2007, and 27-17 in 2006. Both teams are on noticeable winning streaks, as Auburn hasn't lost since last season's Iron Bowl to 'Bama, and Florida hasn't lost since dropping to Missouri on November 3rd of last year.
While this is a top-ten matchup, let's all be honest with both ourselves and each other: the only reason Florida is ranked in the top-ten is because the Associated Press deemed them No. 8 in the preseason polls. Hey, maybe Florida ends up proving themselves as a top-ten team by the time winter rolls around, but it's tough to truly believe that based off of what we've seen so far. Sure, they haven't lost yet, but there's a reason they've dropped two spots despite being 5-0: the Gators ain't played nobody Pawl. Florida's most impressive win so far was by eight points on the road over Kentucky...who is 2-3, with the Wildcats only wins coming over Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Aside from Kentucky, Florida has also topped Miami and Tennessee (both objectively bad football teams), along with Towson and UT Martin, both FCS teams.
Auburn, on the other hand, has looked impressive by beating No. 13 Oregon in a neutral site game, topping Texas A&M in College Station, and torching Mississippi State 56-23 last week. The conference opponents that the Tigers have trumped aren't necessarily the most impressive, but they sure are better than Kentucky and Tennessee. Auburn's 5-0 has rightfully garnered more respect than Florida's 5-0.
Both defensive units have been the highlights of their team's season: the Gators have only allowed 8.8 points per game (fifth fewest nationwide), while Auburn has allowed an average of 17.2, the 22nd fewest in the country. Both defenses have allowed an average of fewer than 100 rushing yards per game: 95.2 for Auburn and 86.8 for Florida.
Expect there to be a lot of action on the ground in this one, and that's not only because we have a true freshman QB facing off against a backup QB. There hasn't been a game yet this season in which either Auburn or Florida has thrown the ball more than they've run it. In fact, Auburn hasn't had less than 40 rushing attempts in a game yet in 2019. The Tigers' rushing attempts per game through five have been: 43, 45, 62 (!), 42, and 45. Six different players have contributed to Auburn's 17 total rushing touchdowns.
Florida's offense hasn't been quite as run-heavy as Auburn's, but their rushing attempts through their first five have been: 28 attempts, 38, 41, 37, and 32 (again, all more than the passing attempts in the same game). Seven players have contributed to the team's eleven total touchdowns on the ground.
So if we should expect these offenses to favor the run on Saturday afternoon, how should we expect the run defenses to perform? Through Auburn's first five games they've allowed: 3.1 yards per carry and 90 total rushing yards against Oregon, 4 ypc/120 total vs Tulane, 2.9 ypc/92 total vs Kent State, 2.7 ypc/56 total @ Texas A&M, and 3.1/118 total vs Mississippi St. In 2019, Florida has allowed: 2.4 yards per carry and 87 total rushing yards against Miami, 2 ypc/54 total vs UT Martin, 5.1 ypc/138 total @ Kentucky, 3.3 ypc/88 total vs Tennessee, and 2.2 ypc/65 total vs Towson.
Florida's defensive numbers against the ground-attack seem to be a little more impressive than Auburn's on the surface, but take note of the outlier: Kentucky. That's likely the best team they've faced so far, and although they didn't get flattened by the Wildcats' run game, it's definitely the one performance they'd rather forget about. Florida's run-defense might get exposed on Saturday, as they've yet to see a running back corps and O-line as talented as Auburn's.
Although the Gators tend to call more rushing plays than passing plays, they've been more effective through the air this season, totaling 1,441 passing yards (tied for 18th most). They have the 30th best passing yards per game average with 288.2 Although Feleipe Franks is out for the rest of the season due to injury, junior quarterback Kyle Trask's numbers have been very comparable to Frank's with a similar sample size. Franks started the season completing 54/71 throws (76.1%) for 698 yards (9.8 yards per completion), five touchdowns, and three picks. Trask has completed 51 of his 66 throws (77.3%) for 647 yards (9.8 yards per completion), five touchdowns, and two picks. You probably had to re-read that paragraph because you thought you were mixing up each QB's stats. So far, it doesn't appear that much has changed under center for Florida with Franks' absence.
Florida likely has a better chance of debunking Auburn's defense through the air; the Tigers haven't been abysmal or anything on pass defense, but they're more vulnerable in coverage than in shutting down the run. The Tigers have allowed an average of 225 pass yards per game (ranks 72nd in the country). Like I said though, passing on Auburn won't be particularly easy: they've allowed a completion percentage of 54.9 (19th best) and have recorded 13 sacks (tied for 23rd most). They've allowed 242 passing yards to Oregon, 103 against Tulane, 229 vs Kent State, 335 @ Texas A&M, and 216 vs Mississippi State.
I wouldn't expect too many big plays in this one, to be quite honest. I certainly foresee some serious smash mouth football between Auburn and Florida for a relatively rare SEC battle. I think both front sevens will be wildly disruptive, but I trust Auburn's playmakers more to grind it out and eventually take over the game.
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