The new wave of QBs, basically the ones drafted in 2011 and 2012, have had very, VERY mixed results. Russell Wilson has a Super Bowl ring but I'm pretty sure Malcolm Butler murdered the Seahawks. Andrew Luck is trended more towards this generations Drew Bledsoe than anything else. Love Cam Newton but he's got to prove himself all over again after that performance vs. the Broncos in the Super Bowl.
All of this to say, quarterback play is down a tick at this very moment. Peyton is gone and Brees' Saints have missed the playoffs three of the last four seasons and are off to an 0-2 start this year. Brady won't play until Week 5. Rodgers had his worst QB rating last season (92.7) since his first year as a starter in 2008, and granted it's two weeks in, he's down to 82.6 at the moment.
Which is all to say even further, is it totally unreasonable to say that roughly 75 percent of NFL teams would have at least some interest in Jimmy Garoppolo? And if so, can Belichick handle this asset the way the Dallas Cowboys once handled Herschel Walker and set up (extend) a dynasty?
Just check out what Jimmy Johnson was able to turn Walker in to. And that was for a running back! A different time, certainly. Just something to consider.
A few variables to consider before I get to where Garoppolo would best fit:
- "Omg Lev he played well for a game and a half calm down" Brock Osweiler got a 4-year, $72 million contract from the Houston Texans after losing his job to Peyton Manning last year. Matt Flynn duped the Seahawks, Raiders and Jets into decent contracts based on one game in Week 17 of 2011, when he threw for 480 yards vs. Detroit.
- Do I believe Tom Brady can play until he's 45? Vinny Testaverde played until he was 44, in a world without so much coddling of the quarterbacks. Not at a high level, but Vinny doesn't fancy me as an avocado ice cream connoisseur.
- This would have been about 10 million times more fun to write if Garoppolo hadn't been hurt yesterday, but maybe I can do the same thing for Jacoby Brissett on Friday morning.
On to the field, in an odds-style handicapping. These odds are based on the 2016-17 off-season as it currently stands:
Off the board:
Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, Denver Broncos, St. Louis Los Angeles Rams
These are teams with firmly-entrenched starting quarterbacks that have track records of winning, with age still on their side, or teams that spent first round picks on QBs in 2016. Just won't happen. If Jimmy G is on any of these teams come Week 1 in 2017, I will get a University of Rhode Island football helmet tattooed on my bicep.
10,000 to 1:
Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants, San Diego Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, New Orleans Saints.
Completely different reasons for most of these teams. Tampa and Tennessee spent top-two picks on quarterbacks in '15, so unless Winston or Mariota morph into JaMarcus Russell this season, they ain't happening. Texans clearly like Osweiler, but Bill O'Brien could be intrigued by a Belichick product. Colts just made Luck the highest-paid player in the league, but Jim Irsay isn't exactly the kind of guy who won't make an erratic decision.
The Giants and Chargers are on here for different reasons than those above, though still long shots. Giants fans, look me in my Internet eyes and tell me Eli Manning is going to win a third Super Bowl. I know, I know, I probably said the same thing about a second Super Bowl in 2010. But NYG has made the playoffs once since 2008, and did it with a paltry 9-7 record and a negative point differential. Peyton should probably keep penciling Eli in for Tuesdays.
Same concept with Rivers, who doesn't have the postseason pedigree as Eli. San Diego made the playoffs in each of Rivers' first four seasons (2006-2009), but just once since.
Brees still puts up Madden numbers but as I mentioned above, that hasn't exactly gotten New Orleans anywhere recently.
5,000 to 1:
Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders
Looks like Oakland (or perhaps Las Vegas) has something in Derek Carr. Gotta make sure Teddy Bridgewater's knee isn't beyond the point of no return; giving up a first round pick for Sam Bradford just doesn't feel right. Matt Stafford is younger than Eli or Rivers, meaning the Lions can probably wait another few years through his prime, but let's see how he does without Calvin Johnson; to be fair, early returns are promising.
1,000 to 1:
Jacksonville Jaguars, Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs
I'll be pleasantly surprised if Blake Bortles appears on Pardon My Take again this season. I just don't see someone like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning back in their youth taking time out to appear on a podcast talking about Wikipedia articles. Bortles is in year three, when you generally want to see some tangible progress being made, and through two weeks, it's not there.
The Bengals will ride with Andy Dalton forever because they are one of the worst organizations in sports. Dalton's really not that bad; he's a ginger Joe Flacco, really. He's a competent starting quarterback in the NFL. But while he's led Cincy to the postseason in each of his first five seasons, he's yet to win a playoff game.
Kansas City is an intriguing dark horse; Alex Smith is 32. Andy Reid drafted Nick Foles as one of his last acts in Philly, for what it's worth. Lots of talent on this Chiefs roster, so if something goes amiss with quarterback play this season, don't sleep on KC. They did trade for the last prominent Tom Brady backup, after all.
500 to 1:
New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals
The Jets have invested lots of draft picks in quarterbacks since 2013; Geno Smith aside, it's too soon to say whether any of them can actually play or not. It has to say something that they were clamoring for Ryan Fitzpatrick to come back that badly. Man was that pathetic.
Carson Palmer is 36, and while he's off to a pretty good start in '16, this guy has only one career playoff win.
The problems in Atlanta seem to run deeper than Matt Ryan, who's similar to Matt Stafford in that he's had an uber-elite receiver to throw to (Julio down by the school yard Jones), but it hasn't translated to much regular season success recently.
250 to 1:
Miami Dolphins
Ryan Tannehill is signed through 2020, but what if he's average-to-mediocre again this season? I highly doubt they blow up the Tannehill-Adam Gase combo after one season, but the Dolphins fired Cam Cameron after just one 1-15 season in 2007. No way the Fins can be that bad again...right?
100 to 1:
Dallas Cowboys
You know about Tony Romo; we don't really know about Dak Prescott, however. The Cowboys could rise or fall up this list in the next few weeks based on Prescott's performance. Jerry Jones isn't afraid to spend money, which separates him from Mike Brown, the Bengals owner; however, you could make a case he's just as delusional as Brown, keeping on Jason Garrett despite one playoff win (and appearance, for that matter) in five full seasons. Garrett is 41-41 since the start of the 2011 season, his first full season at the helm; that'll get you the 7-seed in the NBA's Eastern Conference I suppose.
Jones' fierce loyalty to Garrett is linked with Romo, which is to say if Tony can play, he'll be the only Eastern Illinois alum rocking a star on his helmet any time soon.
50 to 1:
Buffalo Bills
All of this depends on what happens with Rex Ryan by the end of this season. If he's gone, the new coach will likely want his own guy, meaning Tyrod Taylor would be on his way out the door. Taylor is okay as a mobile quarterback, but he'll never be confused with Newton or Rodgers in that regard.
What Taylor does do well is limit his mistakes; he's thrown only seven interceptions in his 16 starts for the Bills. If he were on a different team, I think he'd give said team much longer odds of needing Garoppolo. But Buffalo is such a cluster you-know-what that he could be a victim of circumstance.
The Bills' quarterback history post-Jim Kelly isn't quite as dark as Cleveland's, but it's in the same stratosphere. I guess Trent Edwards is the best they've had? Maybe the one who served as Brady's backup in 2001 by the name of Drew Bledsoe?
25 to 1:
Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler wound up in Chicago in 2009, where the Bears have made the playoffs exactly once since -- and that was in 2010. I can't for the life of me figure out why they haven't moved on from this clown, or at least drafted a quarterback in the first few rounds to push him.
It would be a homecoming for Garoppolo, who attended Eastern Illinois and grew up in Arlington Heights, Ill., which is 25 miles from downtown Chicago.
Cutler is signed through 2020, but according to Spotrac, Chicago would only be on the hook for $2 million in dead money in 2017 and $1 million in 2018 if they should chose to finally move on from Cutler.
PS the Tavern recently hired a blogger who's somewhat of a Cutler fan:
15 to 1:
Washington Redskins
Kirk Cousins is playing this season under the franchise tag, worth $19,953,000. He's thrown three interceptions in two games.
Where to begin with the follies in Washington...you could make a case Dan Snyder is a worse leader in D.C. than whoever doesn't lose (because there are no winners here) the presidential election in November. RGIII's knees are partially to blame for this conundrum, because it truly looked like things were happening there.
People in Washington have a long history of overpaying for certain things, such as the Louisiana Purchase, oil from Saudi Arabia, and documents from the Watergate Hotel, for starters. Their head coach, Jay Gruden, is currently too dense to move the best cornerback in the league (Josh Norman) on to a team's best receiver, instead locking him in to one side of the field.
This franchise is way too unpredictable to count on anything, but there are talented pieces scattered about the roster.
5 to 1:
San Francisco 49ers
If anything...this is more likely a destination for Brady, which is another conversation for another time.
Jacoby Brissett would probably be a better option than Blaine Gabbert or Colin Kaepernick at this point. I'm no NFL draft guru, but I have to imagine San Fran already has its eyes open on the No. 1 or 2 overall pick next May. This roster has been downright depleted since the 2011-2013 run of success, with NaVorro Bowman really the only notable player still remaining and performing at a comparable level.
Let's say Chip Kelly has learned from his mistakes in Philadelphia; from a sheer X's and O's standpoint, that would mean he learned cutting DeSean Jackson, letting Jeremy Maclin walk and trading LeSean McCoy were all horrible ideas, while replacing them with DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews was an even worse concept.
If he's learned how to build an offense in 2016, he'll know he needs some wide receivers and tight ends to take pressure off the running back. Pretty elementary concept right there.
No matter the year, he'll need a quarterback to make it happen. Can't hurt that he's tight with Belichick, either. For about a million reasons, Kaepernick needs to move on from the 49ers. Gabbert is probably the worst quarterback who's started a game in the NFL so far this year. Although...
1 to 1:
Cleveland Browns
RGIII is done for eight weeks, possibly the season, possibly forever. Josh McCown got hurt yesterday too, which indicates Cody Kessler is about to become the 26th different starting quarterback since 1999.
Go ahead, play this Sporcle.
That really explains it all.
I'd feel awful for Garoppolo if he were traded to Cleveland. It would mean that Week 1 win in Arizona was the apex of his career, with no chance to top it.
But it would also mean three first round picks on their way to Foxboro, all of which would be sure to land in the top five. Maybe even a few No. 1 overall.
And unlike the Bruins, who bungled the rewards of the Phil Kessel trade on a scale so grand it burns the eyes to read it, Belichick would make sure the return for Garoppolo resembled the return the Cowboys got for Walker.
Which means the duckboats can stay warm until 2030 and beyond.
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