Thursday, October 10, 2019

Week seven college football games to watch

No matter what time you're able to plant yourself on the couch this Saturday (hopefully all day) there will be multiple games of interest on. Conference play is in full swing which always adds more value and familiarity to the weekly matchups. It's an extremely full menu of noteworthy games, and this is the point in the season where you realize just how quickly it all goes by. This is the type of weekend that you're really going to want to soak in everything you can. This is also the point in the season where teams' identities really start to form, helping pencil up a very rough sketch of the playoff picture.

The Early Slot: No. 6 Oklahoma vs No. 11 Texas

The annual Red River Showdown between Texas and Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl will be played this Saturday at 11 am Central, with the Sooners being favored over the Longhorns by 11 points. The Longhorns lead the all-time series 62-47, and there have been five ties between them (1903, 1937, 1976, 1984, and 1995). Texas won the Red River game 48-45 last year, but as we know, eventually fell to Oklahoma when the stakes were higher in the Big 12 Championship.


This will be Oklahoma's biggest test yet, as they've rolled through their schedule so far: 49-31 over Houston, 70-14 vs South Dakota, 48-14 at UCLA, 55-16 vs Texas Tech, and 45-20 at Kansas. The Sooners are averaging 644 total yards per game, which is more than any team in college football at the moment. They're also putting up 53.4 points per game, with nobody but LSU scoring more on average. They land in the top-five for both passing yards per game: (355.4, 5th best) and rushing yards per game (288.4, 4th best). Jalen Hurts is expectedly performing at a Heisman level, throwing for 1,523 yards and 14 touchdowns, while tallying 499 rushing yards and seven TDs with his feet. The Sooners have allowed 19 points per game, but that seems to be of minimal concern with an offense playing this effectively.

Each week that passes, the Longhorns' week two loss to LSU looks more and more reasonable. I don't completely love the idea of good losses but this certainly was a good loss if you believe in them. Texas only lost by seven to what we now know as a very legitimate playoff contender. The Longhorns also nearly stumbled at home against Oklahoma State, but squeezed out a 36-30 win. Texas' other victories so far have been: 45-14 over Louisiana Tech, 48-13 vs Rice, and 42-31 at West Virginia. They've scored an average of 41.8 points per game (13th most nationwide) and the 19th most yards per game with 484. They certainly favor passing in their play calls, and QB Sam Ehlinger has been impressive so far. The junior has recorded 1,448 yards and 17 touchdowns, only throwing two picks. He's also averaging 4.6 yards per carry with 236 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. We've seen in the past that Ehlinger likes to use his legs in big games, as he's a very aggressive and physical runner. You always want to avoid an abundance of physicality with your starting QB, but those big plays are what Texas needs in games like these. The 'Horns are allowing an average of 26.6 points per game, which isn't particularly ideal. Sure, we can sit here and point out that LSU's 45 points are skewing that average, but the damage LSU's offense was able to do in Austin is a strong indicator of what Oklahoma's offense should be capable of at a neutral site against this defense.

Last year's Red River Showdown was a thriller, especially with the underdogs coming out with a victory. I'm always for the playoff picture being shaken up, and an upset by Texas would certainly do that. On the other hand, I've said since the preseason that Oklahoma is a playoff team, and I've consistently been a Jalen Hurts backer, but I'm just hoping for a good old fashioned Big 12 barn burner at the end of the day.

Other early games of interest:

  • No. 3 Georgia vs South Carolina 
  • No. 23 Memphis @ Temple


The Afternoon Slot: No. 8 Wisconsin vs Michigan State

Look, I'm fully aware that this game only features one ranked team, and that at the same time there is a top-25 SEC matchup between No. 1 Alabama and No. 24 Texas A&M. But Texas A&M being ranked is a complete joke. They're 3-2. I know their two losses are to Clemson and Auburn, but that Auburn loss suddenly isn't much to hang your hat on. And I bet the same SEC homers who have completely written off Clemson after the close call with UNC, still call the 14 point loss to them a "good loss." The Aggies' three wins have come against Texas State, Lamar, and Arkansas (in a four point game). What part of that is impressive? Two "good losses" and three wins over bad football teams? If we want to look at things that way, then Wisconsin vs. Michigan State should be a top-25 matchup. The Spartans also obtain two of these mystical good losses: They fell 34-10 last week to Ohio State, who has been one of the more impressive teams in all of college football so far. They also lost 7-3 to Herm Edwards and Arizona State, who are now ranked No. 18 in the country. The same amount of losses and one more win than A&M, as Michigan State is 4-2 with wins over Tulsa, Western Michigan, Northwestern, and Indiana. If you don't think they should be bottom dwellers of the top-25, than you should agree that the same goes for Texas A&M. Whatever, rankings are stupid. 'Bama will wipe the floor with the Aggies in College Station and for all we know that'll move A&M up to No. 19. Onto the BIG 10.

The Badgers host Michigan State at Camp Randall this Saturday afternoon as 10.5 point favorites. The Spartans lead the all-time series 30-23. The two programs have only faced off once with Paul Chryst as Wisconsin's head coach; the Badgers beat Mark Dantonio's squad 30-6 in 2016 in East Lansing. The away team has won the last two meetings, as Michigan State won 16-13 in 2012.

No. 8 Wisconsin has looked absolutely dominant through every game this season, not including a closer-than-it-should-have-been 24-15 victory over Northwestern. The Badgers were absolutely rolling to start the game, yet allowed the Cats back in it. Northwestern was a few questionable plays calls away from making it even sketchier for Scon. The aforementioned dominance in the Badgers' other four games, however, is indisputable. Aside from the (still victorious) Northwestern blunder, Wisconsin has seriously taken care of business: 49-0 at USF, 61-0 vs Central Michigan, 35-14 vs Michigan, and 48-0 vs Kent State. The Badgers' 43.4 points per game ranks as the 11th most, and their 5.3 points allowed per game leads the nation. Running back Jonathan Taylor continues to be one of college football's premiere players; he's notched 745 rushing yards (tied with BC's AJ Dillon for third most), 12 touchdowns (tied for second most with SMU's Xavier Jones), and is averaging 7.2 yards per carry. He's also reeled in twelve catches for 114 yards and four touchdowns so far.


The Spartans have allowed an average of 18.2 points per game, with only 20 teams allowing fewer this year. The defense looked a bit more solid through the first four games, giving up just a touchdown to Tulsa, 17 points to Western Michigan, ten points to Arizona State, and ten points to Northwestern. Not too shabby. But then in the last two weeks, the Spartans have allowed 31 points to Indiana, followed by a 34 point performance by Ohio State. 34 points is a lot, but that's actually the Buckeyes' lowest score so far this year (second lowest was 42 vs Cincinnati), so there's a little bit of value there. But letting Indiana put up 31 on you is certainly concerning. Perhaps it was simply an off day. Michigan State has totaled 19 sacks this season (tied for 9th most) and seven interceptions (tenth most). They've allowed an average of 199.3 yards per game through the air, and have only allowed an average of 100.3 rushing yards (22nd best). That's great and all, but best of luck trying to stop Jonathan Taylor and the massive push of this offensive line. On offense, the Spartans have scored an average of 27.8 points per game, ranking only 75th in the country. Michigan State has been more efficient through the air this year, as Brian Lewerke has thrown for 1,543 yards (11th most in the country) and eleven touchdowns, completing 58.5% of his passes. Five different targets have contributed to his eleven TD passes.

Other afternoon games of interest:

  • No. 1 Alabama @ No. 24 Texas A&M 
  • No. 2 Clemson vs Florida State 
  • No. 18 Arizona State vs Washington State


The Night Slot: No. 5 LSU vs No. 7 Florida 

It was just a week ago that I highly doubted the Gators, even on their home field in Gainesville, only for them to go on and beat Auburn 24-13 (while wearing some excellent uniforms). I yapped all about the Gators not beating anybody all that impressive, playing with their backup QB, not deserving a top-ten spot, etc. Yet here we are a week later; the Gators took the No. 7 spot away from Auburn and boast a 6-0 record. And here I am again, absolutely and completely disregarding them as a legitimate threat. Florida enters Saturday night's game as 13.5 point underdogs, and understandably so. Death Valley is going to be absolute chaos under the lights, and College GameDay will be on campus. The atmosphere in Baton Rouge should be simply remarkable.


Joe Burrow, for now, is putting on a legitimate Heisman campaign this season: he has thrown for 1,864 yards (only Washington State's QB has more), 22 touchdowns (only Tua has more), and a mere three interceptions. No quarterback in the country has a higher completion percentage than Burrow's 78.4. The Tigers' offense has not scored fewer than 42 points this season. They lead the nation with 54.6 points per game. On defense, they've allowed 19.8 points per game, which much like Oklahoma (19 points allowed per game) isn't all that concerning when you can dismantle opposing defenses at will.

Yes, the Gators defense has been outstanding throughout their six victories. They've held their opponents to 9.5 points per game, the fifth fewest of any team. But come on, their biggest threat being Bo Nix in the Swamp is incomparable to Burrow and this LSU offense in Death Valley. Burrow's numbers will probably be stunted a bit by this defensive unit, but completely shutting him down seems to be too outrageous of a feat. Florida has proven me wrong so far this season; they're better than I initially gave them credit for and I'm ready to admit that. But I will eat my hat in one bite with no water to wash it down if Kyle Trask and the Gators come out of Saturday night with more points than Coach Orgeron's Tigers. I will be livid if the band doesn't play "Neck" for this game. Absolutely livid.

Other night games of interest:

  • No. 9 Notre Dame vs USC 
  • No. 10 Penn State @ No. 17 Iowa 
  • No. 14 Boise State vs Hawaii

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Previewing No. 7 Auburn at No. 10 Florida

There's been a lot of chatter about player compensation in amateur athletics, essentially further exposing college sports, particularly football, as a true business. And let me tell you, folks, business is BOOMING in the good old SEC nowadays, with college football's premiere conference occupying half of the current top-ten. Two of those top-ten teams go up against each other this Saturday afternoon. At 2:30 Central, The No. 7 Auburn Tigers will take on the No. 10 Florida Gators at the Swamp in Gainesville. Auburn is currently favored by three points.


Auburn leads the all-time series between these two programs, with a 43-38 record against the Gators. Two meetings ended in ties, way back in 1939, and then a decade later in 1949. This will be the first time they've played since 2011. The Tigers have taken the last three: winning 17-6 in 2011, 20-17 in 2007, and 27-17 in 2006. Both teams are on noticeable winning streaks, as Auburn hasn't lost since last season's Iron Bowl to 'Bama, and Florida hasn't lost since dropping to Missouri on November 3rd of last year.

While this is a top-ten matchup, let's all be honest with both ourselves and each other: the only reason Florida is ranked in the top-ten is because the Associated Press deemed them No. 8 in the preseason polls. Hey, maybe Florida ends up proving themselves as a top-ten team by the time winter rolls around, but it's tough to truly believe that based off of what we've seen so far. Sure, they haven't lost yet, but there's a reason they've dropped two spots despite being 5-0: the Gators ain't played nobody Pawl. Florida's most impressive win so far was by eight points on the road over Kentucky...who is 2-3, with the Wildcats only wins coming over Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Aside from Kentucky, Florida has also topped Miami and Tennessee (both objectively bad football teams), along with Towson and UT Martin, both FCS teams.

Auburn, on the other hand, has looked impressive by beating No. 13 Oregon in a neutral site game, topping Texas A&M in College Station, and torching Mississippi State 56-23 last week. The conference opponents that the Tigers have trumped aren't necessarily the most impressive, but they sure are better than Kentucky and Tennessee. Auburn's 5-0 has rightfully garnered more respect than Florida's 5-0.

Both defensive units have been the highlights of their team's season: the Gators have only allowed 8.8 points per game (fifth fewest nationwide), while Auburn has allowed an average of 17.2, the 22nd fewest in the country. Both defenses have allowed an average of fewer than 100 rushing yards per game: 95.2 for Auburn and 86.8 for Florida.

Expect there to be a lot of action on the ground in this one, and that's not only because we have a true freshman QB facing off against a backup QB. There hasn't been a game yet this season in which either Auburn or Florida has thrown the ball more than they've run it. In fact, Auburn hasn't had less than 40 rushing attempts in a game yet in 2019. The Tigers' rushing attempts per game through five have been: 43, 45, 62 (!), 42, and 45. Six different players have contributed to Auburn's 17 total rushing touchdowns.


Florida's offense hasn't been quite as run-heavy as Auburn's, but their rushing attempts through their first five have been: 28 attempts, 38, 41, 37, and 32 (again, all more than the passing attempts in the same game). Seven players have contributed to the team's eleven total touchdowns on the ground.

So if we should expect these offenses to favor the run on Saturday afternoon, how should we expect the run defenses to perform? Through Auburn's first five games they've allowed: 3.1 yards per carry and 90 total rushing yards against Oregon, 4 ypc/120 total vs Tulane, 2.9 ypc/92 total vs Kent State, 2.7 ypc/56 total @ Texas A&M, and 3.1/118 total vs Mississippi St. In 2019, Florida has allowed: 2.4 yards per carry and 87 total rushing yards against Miami, 2 ypc/54 total vs UT Martin, 5.1 ypc/138 total @ Kentucky, 3.3 ypc/88 total vs Tennessee, and 2.2 ypc/65 total vs Towson.

Florida's defensive numbers against the ground-attack seem to be a little more impressive than Auburn's on the surface, but take note of the outlier: Kentucky. That's likely the best team they've faced so far, and although they didn't get flattened by the Wildcats' run game, it's definitely the one performance they'd rather forget about. Florida's run-defense might get exposed on Saturday, as they've yet to see a running back corps and O-line as talented as Auburn's.

Although the Gators tend to call more rushing plays than passing plays, they've been more effective through the air this season, totaling 1,441 passing yards (tied for 18th most). They have the 30th best passing yards per game average with 288.2 Although Feleipe Franks is out for the rest of the season due to injury, junior quarterback Kyle Trask's numbers have been very comparable to Frank's with a similar sample size. Franks started the season completing 54/71 throws (76.1%) for 698 yards (9.8 yards per completion), five touchdowns, and three picks. Trask has completed 51 of his 66 throws (77.3%) for 647 yards (9.8 yards per completion), five touchdowns, and two picks. You probably had to re-read that paragraph because you thought you were mixing up each QB's stats. So far, it doesn't appear that much has changed under center for Florida with Franks' absence.


Florida likely has a better chance of debunking Auburn's defense through the air; the Tigers haven't been abysmal or anything on pass defense, but they're more vulnerable in coverage than in shutting down the run. The Tigers have allowed an average of 225 pass yards per game (ranks 72nd in the country).  Like I said though, passing on Auburn won't be particularly easy: they've allowed a completion percentage of 54.9 (19th best) and have recorded 13 sacks (tied for 23rd most). They've allowed 242 passing yards to Oregon, 103 against Tulane, 229 vs Kent State, 335 @ Texas A&M, and 216 vs Mississippi State.

I wouldn't expect too many big plays in this one, to be quite honest. I certainly foresee some serious smash mouth football between Auburn and Florida for a relatively rare SEC battle. I think both front sevens will be wildly disruptive, but I trust Auburn's playmakers more to grind it out and eventually take over the game.

Friday, September 20, 2019

Week four: games to watch

Last weekend's lackluster slate of games was just the calm before the storm; we're fortunate enough to have unreal top-25 matchups in each time slot on Saturday. There will obviously be other games to switch over to, but these three games should be your top priorities, no questions asked.

Early Game: No. 11 Michigan at No. 13 Wisconsin

This cross-divisional BIG 10 battle between the No. 11 Michigan Wolverines and the No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers will be taking place at Camp Randall in Madison, WI. The hometown Badgers are favored by 3.5. The all-time series between these two programs really isn't even remotely close, with Michigan's 51 wins towering over Sconnie's 15. They did finish in a tie all the way back in 1921. With the teams' current coaches, Jim Harbaugh is 2-1 when facing a Paul Chryst led Badger team: in 2016 Michigan won 14-7, and 38-13 last year. In 2017, Wisconsin came out on top 24-10. So with Harbaugh vs Chryst, the home team has won all three times. Good news for the Badgers. 

Wisconsin undoubtedly underperformed last season, but it seems like they're back to performing at a high level. They haven't had the stiffest competition, but not allowing a single point (and only 215 total yards) through two games is still wildly impressive no matter who you play. The Badgers beat up on USF 49-0 before rag-dolling Central Michigan 61-0. That's also an average of 55 points scored per game, which is currently tied with LSU for third most in the country. Only Oklahoma and Baylor have higher average points per game. The last time this Wisconsin defense has allowed a touchdown was in a loss to Minnesota to conclude the 2018 regular season (they only allowed Miami a field goal in their bowl game).


The Badgers boast a top-two talent at running back in all of college football, and this will be a big game for Jonathan Taylor's junior campaign. So far, he's averaging 6.8 yards per carry and has five touchdowns with 237 yards. He's also tallied three touchdown receptions with five catches. 

Leading up to the season, there were debates of who would be QB1 for the Badgers between junior Jack Coan and freshman Graham Mertz. I assumed Mertz was going to get the nod, as he's the most coveted quarterback recruit to ever play in Madison. Mertz got a few reps in the Central Michigan blowout, but Coan has played really well throughout these first couple of weeks. He's completed 76.3% of his passes (pretty lame compared to his 100% completion rate in 2017, connecting on all five of his throws) with 564 yards, five touchdowns, and most importantly, no interceptions. Coan's completion percentage is currently the seventh highest in the nation.


Much like the Badgers, Michigan has started 2019 with a 2-0 record, yet it's certainly a less impressive rendition of a 2-0 record. The Wolverines did hang 40 on Middle Tennessee State in week one, but they also allowed 21 points to Middle Tennessee State. That's fine, it's early in the season and sometimes good teams need to ease their way into the schedule. That brings us to week two, where Michigan narrowly avoided a home loss to Army. It took a last-second missed field goal, and then overtime, for Michigan to claim a victory. And then they stormed the field. After beating Army. In overtime. Beating Army in OT doesn't make you a bad team; Kyler Murray and Oklahoma did the same thing in 2018. But it's not crazy to be concerned with Michigan's quality of play through two weeks. 

Throughout the preseason, all I kept hearing about was how the is the year Harbaugh beats Ohio State, and this is the year Michigan has a high-powered offense. These guys need to get through Wisconsin (and Iowa, Penn State, Notre Dame) before looking ahead to Ohio State, and they'll certainly need this supposedly good offense to show up sometime between now and Saturday at 11 am. Shea Patterson has yet to impress me, and the clock is ticking for the senior. Isn't that why he plays football? To impress me? Sure, he threw for three touchdowns against Middle Tennessee State, but he didn't notch a single touchdown against Army. He's barely cracked the 200-yard mark in both games: 203 vs MTSU and 207 vs Army. He hasn't thrown a pick yet, which is a plus. The kid better hope his linemen step up against the Badger defense, because he's been sacked six times so far, and they haven't faced a defense this good. Patterson should expect to be swarmed on Saturday; Wisconsin's defense has recorded five sacks and four turnovers (three of them INTs).

Statistically, Michigan's pass defense is elite, only allowing 138.5 yards per game through the air. But let's remember they played Army last week, who's quarterback only threw the ball four times (two completions, one pick). They haven't been all that impressive, and have yet to compete against an opponent of the Badgers' caliber. So, will this be the week Michigan pulls it all together? Or will this just be another big game that Harbaugh can't win?

Afternoon Game: No. 8 Auburn at No. 17 Texas A&M

Saturday afternoon in College Station, TX should be a great SEC clash between the No. 8 Auburn Tigers and the No. 17 Texas A&M Aggies. A&M, the home team, is favored by 3.5. Since the Aggies joined the SEC before the 2012 season, Auburn has led the series 4-3 (However, A&M leads the all-time series 5-4, with wins over Auburn in 1911 and 1986). Auburn has come out on top in the last two meetings, edging out a 28-24 win last year. 

It's been a few weeks since Auburn has faced a challenge like this one, but it's tough to forget their exhilarating 27-21 win over Oregon on Labor Day Weekend. Since then, they topped Tulane 24-6, before throttling a weak Kent State team 55-16. Auburn has put up an average of 35.3 points per game, and has allowed an average of 14.3 points per game (22nd fewest nationwide).


This trip to Kyle Field will be an absolutely massive test for Auburn's freshman QB Bo Nix. He was initiated into the college football world on the big stage, playing a primetime game at Jerry World against a ranked Oregon team. Although a nationally televised, natural site game is tough for a young buck, I think traveling to College Station for a top-25, in-conference game is far more psychologically challenging. Nix ended up being the man at the end of the Oregon game, but let's not forget he looked shaky throughout everything before that. He threw two picks and completed less than half of his throws. On the year, the freshman has totaled 545 yards and four touchdowns through the air, while rushing for 79 yards and a touchdown. 

Auburn's run game has been the real deal in 2019, as they've averaged 281.7 rushing yards per game (11th best), and their team total of 845 rushing yards is the eighth most in the country. The Tigers' leading rusher, JaTarvious Whitlow, has carried the ball 64 times for 341 yards and three touchdowns. Whitlow came up four yards short of eclipsing triple-digit rushing yards in all three games this year: he rushed for 110 against Oregon, 96 against Tulane, and 135 against Kent State.

The Tigers' defensive unit has impressed me so far, holding Justin Herbert and the Ducks to 21 points, and only allowing one touchdown in the two games since. They've also totaled eight sacks on the year, an interception, and a fumble recovery (which came up just short of a scoop-and-score). This Auburn defense has only allowed 3.2 yards per carry through three games. 

Jimbo Fisher and his Aggies are 2-1 so far on the year, with two victories over lackluster competition: they beat Texas State 41-7 to open up the season, and then expectedly pummeled Lamar University 62-3 last week. Wedged in between those two blowout wins is a loss, but it's the least concerning loss a team can have, as the Aggies fell short of an upset on the road at Clemson. A&M was never really in control of that game, but they eventually kept it within two scores. They have averaged 37.7 points per game (34th most) and have allowed an average of only 11.3 points per game (13th fewest). 

The Aggie defense will look to stuff Auburn's run game on Saturday; they've only allowed 251 total rushing yards through three games (average of 83.7 per game) and two touchdowns. Hell, they held Clemson's Travis Etienne to only 3.3 yards per carry (a total of 53 yards and no touchdowns). They have allowed 554 total passing yards, but 268 of those are from Trevor Lawrence, and they even picked him off in that one. The defensive unit has totaled five sacks so far.

Junior QB Kellen Mond will definitely have to be careful with the football against Auburn, as he's thrown a pick in each game so far. Mond's 747 passing yards fall just outside of the top 30 nationwide. He's averaging 7.7 yards per completion and has connected on 64.9% of his passes. Mond has tossed five touchdown passes on the year. His main target, Jhamon Ausbon, has reeled in 17 catches for 253 yards (14.9 average) and two touchdowns.


Freshman running back Isaiah Spiller has put up some good numbers this season, as he's averaged 8.8 yards per carry, tallying 246 yards and two touchdowns. Spiller certainly was shutdown by a menacing Clemson defense in week two, but in the other two games he's been an absolute stud; against Texas St he averaged 15.1 yards per carry, rushing for 106 yards on just seven carries. Last week against Lamar, he averaged 8.3 yards per rush, totaling 116 yards and two touchdowns.

These teams both seem pretty evenly matched in all facets of the game, with A&M obviously having a rowdy home field advantage. Auburn's one big win is far enough in the past now, that who knows if the momentum from it is still in effect. A&M's one big loss was fortunately out of conference and to the reigning National Champs, so I don't think that will influence their psyche all that much heading into this one. It should be an absolute bloodbath (for like third or fourth place in the SEC West).

Night Game: No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 3 Georgia

The No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish head down to Athens, Georgia to take on Kirby Smart's No. 3 Bulldogs on Saturday evening. This will only be the third time these teams have ever met, and the last matchup (2017) in South Bend was a thrilling brawl in which Georgia claimed a 20-19 victory. The first time the Irish and the Dawgs went at it was on New Year's Day of 1981 at the Sugar Bowl, where Georgia won 17-10. Although these two teams have never been separated by more than a single possession, Vegas is highly confident in Georgia remaining undefeated against Notre Dame, as they're favored by 14.5 on Saturday.

The last time Notre Dame lost to a team other than Clemson was a 38-20 loss in the final regular season game of the 2017 season at Stanford. They went on to beat LSU in the Citrus Bowl that year. And then last year, as we all know, the Irish went through their opponents without suffering a loss. That is, of course, until they had to go up against the eventual National Champs in the final four. Notre Dame got absolutely mopped 30-3 by the Tigers, but that outcome didn't look as pathetic after watching Alabama get rocked 44-16 in the championship.


Notre Dame is 2-0 so far this year, beating Louisville 35-17 on Labor Day, and then lighting up the scoreboard in a 66-14 victory over New Mexico. The Irish have averaged the seventh most points per game with 50.5, and have allowed an average of 15.5 points per game (tied with Northwestern for 29th). Through their two games, the defense has recorded three interceptions and two forced fumbles.

Ian Book (61.7 completion percentage, 553 yards, six touchdowns, zero picks) and the Notre Dame offense have been productive so far this season, but they'll be going up against a far more athletic group than either of the teams they've faced. The Georgia defense is far more tenacious and will pose a great challenge to ND's ability to move up the field. The Irish really need their playmakers to step up against an extremely athletic group. I do have confidence that the offensive line will do a solid job preventing Book from feeling too much pressure throughout the game.

Georgia has come out to an absolutely steamrolling 3-0 start this year, beating Vanderbilt 30-6 in Nashville, a 63-17 stomping of Murray State (no Ja Morant on the gridiron I guess), topped off by a 55-0 shutout against Arkansas State. The Bulldogs' 49.3 points per game has them tied with Oklahoma State for ninth most in the country. Only two teams have allowed fewer points per game than Georgia's 7.7: Arizona State with 7, and Wisconsin with 0.

Jake Fromm's completion percentage of 75 is the ninth best of any quarterback, and the rest of his numbers are very comparable to Ian Book's: Fromm has thrown for 601 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions.


Definitely expect Georgia's junior running back D'Andre Swift to make some big plays on Saturday night. On 31 carries, Swift has averaged 9.4 yards per carry, totaling 291 yards and two touchdowns. He also had a reception touchdown (two catches for 64 yards) against Arkansas State last week. Notre Dame's rush defense has been more flimsy than their pass defense: the Irish have allowed an average of 230.5 rushing yards per game against running backs that are nothing close to D'Andre Swift.

The point-spread might cause many to feel that this is a major mismatch Between the Hedges, and I must admit that Georgia's athleticism should seriously frighten anyone pulling for Notre Dame in this one. That's honestly the biggest disadvantage for the Irish in general; there's a clear talent gap that has prevented them from truly entering the upper echelon of college ball. But don't completely count them out, especially in terms of covering. The year that Georgia pissed away the National Championship against Alabama, the Irish only lost to them by a single point early in the season. Last year, the main reason Georgia didn't get into the playoff (other than pissing away the SEC Championship against Alabama) was because undefeated Notre Dame deserved the spot over them. So these programs really have been relatively neck-and-neck in recent years, and ND must feel disrespected heading into this one. But then again, the Irish do have to head into a hostile Sanford Stadium against a team that has been on the cusp of the Alabama-Clemson tier, the 1%. The place will be rocking under the lights, and this one could end up having some heavy playoff implications. 

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Week three: some games to watch this Saturday

We enter week three of the college football season with no games between top-25 teams, which is always slightly disappointing. But come on people, we can't sit here and disparage the writer's poll rankings while writing off a week without their little guesses of numbers next to 25 different teams' names. We've still got some quality stuff coming our way on Saturday for various reasons. Instead of breaking down one headliner this weekend, here are a few games for each time slot that could entertain or intrigue.

Early Games

The No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs have a cupcake matchup against Arkansas State, and I haven't been able to watch much of Georgia so far this season. This seems like an opportune time to get more acquainted with Kirby Smart's Dawgs, especially as the top of the SEC race looks to be a doozie; the SEC boasts three of the top four teams and five of the top ten. It'll also be good to familiarize thyself with Georgia and their guys before headlining next weekend in Athens, as they host Notre Dame. The Dawgs are 33 point favorites heading into this one, and they've outscored their opponents 93-23 through the first two weeks. Don't expect this to be competitive; think of it as doing your homework for massive games featuring Georgia throughout the rest of this young season.

We've also got some in-state, cross-conference action in the Keystone State, between No. 13 Penn State and Pittsburgh. Pitt lost week one to their ACC Coastal foe UVA, but turned things around last week by topping Ohio 20-10. As you probably remember, Pitt lost last year's ACC Championship game to Clemson. On the other side, the Nittany Lions have done some damage so far this season: they stomped Idaho 79-7 before barreling over Buffalo in a 45-13 win. This will be Penn State's third consecutive home game before they head to College Park, MD to take on the No. 21 Terps. It's been a few seasons since the Nittany Lions haven't had Trace McSorely under center, but sophomore Sean Clifford hasn't given any Penn State fans reason to worry; so far in 2019 he's thrown for 559 yards and six touchdowns, without any interceptions. When these two teams played last year in Pittsburgh, Penn State throttled the home team 51-6.


I had mentioned the No. 21 Maryland Terrapins earlier, who will be facing off against the Temple Owls this Saturday in Philly, before hosting Penn State. The Terps are new guys to the top-25, after they dismantled Syracuse last weekend in a 63-20 embarrassment. At the time, Syracuse was in the 21 spot of the rankings, which, let's be honest, was a complete joke to begin with. Just a complete shot in the dark by the voters. Temple has had a very solid football program recently, and this will be their first season under head coach Rod Carey after Geoff Collins left for the Georgia Tech job. The Owls worked Maryland pretty good when the two met last year, coming out with a 35-14 win. Temple enters this one as 7.5 point home dogs.

Afternoon Games


Sure, we don't have any games between ranked teams this weekend, but this is the closest you can get without having both in the top-25. We've got No. 19 Iowa taking on Iowa State, who was tied with Nebraska for the 25th spot in last week's poll. Although Iowa State won last week, it was a narrow three-point victory over Northern Iowa. The Cyclones dropped in the rankings, but are still sitting just outside; they received the most votes of any non-ranked team for the week three poll. The Hawkeyes will be the road team, yet are still favored by 2.5. The last time Kirk Ferentz and Iowa lost was on November 10th of last year to Northwestern, and they're currently riding a five game winning streak. They are also looking to extend their winning streak in this rivalry to five, as the last time Iowa State won was 2014. The College GameDay crew will be on campus in Ames, which always adds an extra tablespoon of rowdiness to the recipe.

Out west, No. 24 USC heads to Provo to take on BYU. This game doesn't have the heaviest of implications but it'll definitely help indicate what direction USC's season is about to head in. Things were already looking questionable, and then their starting QB JT Daniels tore his ACL. However in his debut start, a 45-20 win over Stanford, freshman QB Kedon Slovis looked impressive: he completed 84.8% of his throws, going 28/33 with 377 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks. So things aren't looking as grim as they seemed for the Trojans. BYU comes into this one with a 1-1 record, as they lost to a really good Utah team in week one, and beat a really bad Tennessee team in OT last week. They finished last year at 7-6 with an irrelevant bowl win over Western Michigan. These two programs have only gone up against each other twice (2003 and 2004), with USC winning both of those. After USC, BYU still has Washington and Boise State on their schedule, so this will be a good test to see where they stand amongst some of their future competition. The Trojans are favored by 4.5.


No. 19 UCF doesn't seem to be fading away anytime soon, and I should probably further familiarize myself with their game before I continue to completely disregard their boastful cheers of G5 domination, and hostile pleas to get a shot at the playoff. Stanford isn't quite as much of a threat as they've been in years past, and UCF has played better P5 competition, but the Cardinal should still give the Knights a good test in Orlando on Saturday afternoon. UCF is a 7.5 point favorite. Stanford QB KJ Costello returns from injury, and his absence was certainly felt in their 45-20 loss to USC last week. For UCF, it looked as if their starter was going to be former Notre Dame QB Brandon Wimbush, but he didn't play last week against FAU. Even if Wimbush is good to go this weekend, don't be surprised if you see freshman Dillon Gabriel get the nod instead. So far this year, the Hawaii native has thrown for 372 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions on sixteen completions. He also notched a rushing touchdown in the FAU game.

Night Games

No. 9 Florida heads to Lexington, Kentucky to open up SEC East play. This one would be even more intriguing if Kentucky didn't receive news that their quarterback, Terry Wilson, has torn something in his knee that will prevent him from playing another snap this season. The Gators will be looking for vengeance as they fell short at home last year to Kentucky, 27-16. The last time the Wildcats beat Florida before last year was in the 1986 season. And the last time Kentucky was victorious over Florida in consecutive meetings was 1976-77. The Gators are favored by eight on Saturday night.


Before the regular season had started, No. 1 Clemson heading to the Carrier Dome to take on Syracuse seemed like it'd be much more hyped up than the current scenario. As I had mentioned before, Syracuse starting the season ranked No. 22 (and jumping a spot after beating Liberty) was just erroneous. And we saw them get exposed when Maryland wiped the floor with them in week two. But of course we can't forget, in Clemson's recent dominance, 'Cuse has pestered them the past two years. In 2017, the last time Clemson travelled up to Syracuse, they lost 27-24 (Cuse lost their remaining five games after that). Then in 2018, the Orange gave the Tigers a scare after Trevor Lawrence went down with an injury, and Kelly Bryant had already transferred. They came up short, and Dabo's boys squeaked out a 27-23 win. If Syracuse believes they'll give the Tigers a run for their money this time around, they might be the only ones. Clemson is currently favored by 27.5.


UCLA has some of my favorite uniforms in college football. Their coach, Chip Kelly, was absolutely awesome when he was the coach of a different team. Those are about the only good things that I can say about anything UCLA football related for now, and they're certainly not the reason I'll be tuning in on Saturday night. I'll be checking in on the UCLA game not in need of a competitive game, but in need of an explosive offense completely taking advantage of a subpar team. Jalen Hurts and this Sooners offense are something to behold, and I highly recommend soaking it in and observing. Soak it in until, ya know, the next time Oklahoma has a stellar quarterback accompanied by numerous offensive playmakers.

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Previewing No. 9 Texas vs No. 6 LSU

Last Saturday night we got to witness an absolute thriller of a top-fifteen matchup between Auburn and Oregon, and this week we have both a top-fifteen matchup (No. 12 Texas A&M @ No. 1 Clemson) and a top-ten game between No. 9 Texas and No. 6 LSU. We'll do the full preview of the top-ten matchup, but briefly on A&M vs Clemson: obviously the game taking place in Death Valley is a huge advantage. The fact of the matter is that the Aggies were the Tigers' closest match last season (yes, Syracuse was a very close game too, but that was with no Trevor Lawrence or Kelly Bryant), as Clemson edged out Jimbo Fisher's boys by two points in College Station. But let's be honest, it'd be a shock to see Clemson go down on Saturday. That's not to say A&M won't challenge the Tigers; they're capable of it. But the reigning champions simply will not lose on Saturday at home. Now onto the main event, the other Tigers of the other Death Valley heading to Austin on Saturday night at 6:30 Central.

The last time LSU and Texas faced off, it was New Year's Day of 2003 at the Cotton Bowl. This presented quite the legendary coaching matchup, with Mack Brown on the sidelines for Texas going against Nick Saban, the greatest college football coach of all time. The two had faced off for a National Championship years later, Saban's first of many with Alabama. (For what it's worth, both coaches are off to 1-0 starts with their 2019 teams, UNC and Bama). The Longhorns won that game 35-20, with Roy Williams and Cedric Benson (RIP) featured on the roster. Texas leads the all-time series with nine wins to LSU's seven. But that record honestly means nothing nowadays; the last time they played before that Cotton Bowl was in 1963. While we're at it with the past games that don't matter, one time the Longhorns and Tigers concluded in a 6-6 tie during the tail end of the great depression. Talk about a total bummer. You're gonna end a football game without a winner or loser? In this economy??


The 2018 Texas Longhorns finished the season with a 10-4 record, with inexplicable losses to Maryland and Oklahoma State. More understandably (at least compared to those two), they lost an absolute thriller at home to West Virginia, and to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. As we remember, the Longhorns did take down the Sooners in last season's annual rivalry game, but it's pretty obvious which one of those games you'd prefer to win, considering it's immediate and longterm impact on the program. Sure, they didn't step up for round two against Kyler Murray and Oklahoma, but they certainly did step up in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia. The Longhorns pulled off a 28-21 victory, despite Kirby Smart's Bulldogs being favored by two possessions. Texas finished last season scoring an average pf 31.1 points per game, while allowing an average of 26.2 points per game.

This will be Tom Herman's third season as the head coach down in Austin, and he's currently hanging a record of 18-10. This season was the first time that Herman has a 1-0 record at Texas, as the two previous seasons they fell to Maryland in their opener. Herman absolutely thrives as an underdog; he is 13-2-1 against the spread as an underdog (8-2-1 ATS with Texas) and has straight up won ten of those games. Herman will look to continue his undefeated streak against SEC teams during his time with the Longhorns (2017 Texas Bowl over Missouri and last year's Sugar Bowl over Georgia).

In week one, Texas expectedly beat up on Louisiana Tech 45-14 before taking on their in-state big brother LSU. Also expectedly, Longhorn quarterback Sam Ehlinger had himself a game against a measly squad, completing 28 of his 38 passes for 276 yards and four touchdowns. He also ran for 34 yards on eight attempts. Ehlinger has speed and size, and the dude loves to barrel into defenders. He's certainly effective using his feet, but he does have a history with injuries, as if keeping your QB healthy isn't a big enough concern. The hometown kid tends to try and make things happen on the ground during big games; last season he had 17 rushes against USC, 19 attempts on the ground against Oklahoma the first time, eleven against West Virginia, 15 in the Big 12 Championship, and 21 in the Sugar Bowl.

It seems likely that Ehlinger will be using his legs on Saturday night, as Texas is having some serious injury issues in the backfield. As of now, the running back depth chart consists of sophomore Keaontay Ingram (78 yards and a TD on 11 carries last week) and freshman Roschon Johnson, who came in as a quarterback but has since converted due to all of the current injuries. Behind Johnson is another position convert, as freshman linebacker David Gbenda is in the mix to make up for a lack of healthy bodies. Forget experience on the running back depth chart; the Longhorns simply lack running backs on the running back depth chart.

With the ground game's reliability looking pretty sketchy, Ehlinger's top targets will really, really need to play their role on Saturday. His top targets from week one were: Collin Johnson (four catches, 59 yards, touchdown), Brennan Eagles (three receptions, 59 yards, three touchdowns) and Devin Duvernay (nine catches, 55 yards, touchdown).

The Texas defense looked good in week one against Louisiana Tech, but LSU will obviously be much more of a challenge. Against LTU, both Joseph Ossai (sophomore linebacker) and DeMarvion Overshown (sophomore defensive back) each recorded an interception. Also, senior defensive back Brandon Jones recovered a fumble. Three turnovers and an overall satisfactory defensive showing was encouraging for this defensive unit, as they only returned three of last year's starters. The defense is inexperienced, and LSU will do their best to exploit that.

Ed Oregon's LSU Tigers had a nice 10-3 season last year, which was capped off by a 40-32 Fiesta Bowl victory over the faux reigning champs UCF. LSU's most noteworthy regular season included a 33-17 victory over Miami in week one, 22-21 over SEC foe Auburn, a 36-16 shellacking of Georgia, and a 19-3 win over Mississippi State. All three of their losses were in-conference, and all to good teams: a 27-19 loss to Florida that really shifted gears for the Gators' reputation (they had lost to Kentucky in week two), an embarrassing 29-0 dud at home against Alabama, and an absolutely insane seven-OT game against Texas A&M that ended with a score of 74-72, on top of a fight between Kevin Faulk and Jimbo Fisher's nephew. Quite the ride throughout last season for LSU.


In 2018, LSU averaged 32.4 points per game, while allowing an average of 20.9 points per game. That average was the 22nd fewest in the nation, yet it was the 7th fewest in the SEC. That is wild. Seven of the 22 fewest points allowed per game were by SEC defenses. The infamous SEC bias can get stale and bothersome, but never forget that at the very least a chunk of it is warranted.

In week one, the Tigers routed Georgia Southern (not to be confused with Georgia State who, may I remind you, beat Tennessee last week) in a 55-3 beatdown. LSU's quarterback Joe Burrow (formerly of Ohio State) went 23 for 27 with 278 yards and five touchdowns through the air. Those five touchdowns tied the LSU record for passing touchdowns in a single game. Yes, Burrow threw more touchdowns than incompletions in that game, and did so with zero interceptions. More impressively, he accomplished all of this while only playing one possession of the second half.


Clearly, the Tigers offense aims to look much different this year as their focusing on a hurry up, spread offense with a heavy dosage of passing. Burrow definitely utilized a variety of targets in the season opener, completing throws to nine different teammates. A few of Burrow's current targets are worth keeping an eye on after successful 2018 seasons: Justin Jefferson led last year's team with 875 receiving yards on 54 catches with six touchdowns; Derrick Dillon had 22 receptions for 307 yards and two touchdowns. Terrace Marshall Jr. reeled in twelve catches for 192 yards, and although he didn't get into the end zone last year, he tallied three touchdowns last week. And maybe he isn't statistically the most important target, but LSU does have Randy Moss' son Thaddeus at tight end. He caught two passes for 61 yards against Georgia Southern.

Based off of their new offensive approach, it shouldn't surprise you that LSU didn't run the ball all that much last week. Their leading rusher, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, had only nine rushes for 45 yards and a touchdown.

LSU is feeling pretty confident in their new offensive system, but let's not forget that this defensive unit is what really highlights the Tigers' squad. In Grant Delpit, they have one of the (if not the) most electrifying defensive playmakers in the country. The talent obviously doesn't stop at Delpit, but you need to all do me a favor and appreciate watching this kid. There's something mesmerizing about a defensive player that has game-changing capabilities. Last week against Georgia Southern, the Tiger defense allowed a grand total of 98 yards, with only 24 of those coming through the air. They also forced two turnovers last week, both being fumbles. The tackle leader was junior linebacker Jacob Phillips who had ten. Defensive end Neil Farrell Jr. tallied eight tackles, including a sack.

Between the Longhorns' lack of depth at running back and LSU's newfound enthusiasm for having a quarterback who can throw the football, expect a lot of passing in this one from both teams. That means this game could certainly come down to the defensive backs and the pass rush. Both programs have rich histories of Sunday-caliber defensive backs. LSU, at this point, seems to be more talented overall. But even if they win, the line keeps moving toward them, as the public seems to love the Tigers covering. The line started at 3 or 3.5 points in favor of the Tigers, and has since (as of Wednesday night) shifted to LSU -6.5. With that line moving and Tom Herman being a home dog in this one, you might want to see if it continues to do so before kickoff on Saturday evening. Did I give a decisive answer on what the smart bet is? No. If you read this for advice on how to spend your money, are you not very bright? Yes. I'm here educating the masses, make your own decisions.

I hope everyone had an absolutely magnificent Labor Day Weekend with a very fun slate of games. Let's do it all again, over and over, until the winter.





Thursday, August 29, 2019

Previewing No. 16 Auburn vs No. 11 Oregon

After an extremely sloppy week zero headliner between Florida and Miami, we'll hopefully see a higher quality game of football this Saturday evening between the No. 16 Auburn Tigers and the No. 11 Oregon Ducks. Labor Day Weekend's marquee matchup will be taking place at 6:30 Central Time at Jerry World in Arlington, Texas. As if we don't see enough nationally televised games each fall at the Cowboys' stadium. The last time these two programs faced off was in the National Championship of the 2010 season when Cam Newton led the Tigers to a thrilling victory, beating Chip Kelly's Ducks 22-19. Auburn opened up last season with a neutral-site battle against a Pac 12 team, where they edged out Washington 21-16 in Atlanta.

Gus Malzahn and his Tigers are coming off of a subpar 8-5 season, which included losses to LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama. Honestly, their only quality SEC win last year was a 28-24 win over Texas A&M, with their only other conference wins being over Arkansas and Ole Miss. In terms of numbers, the Tigers looked better than their record, ranking 19th in points per game with 42.8, and allowed the 18th fewest points per game with 19.6. Again, not the most impressive showing from Auburn, but they do have some positive momentum to carry over from a 63-14 beatdown of Purdue in the Music City Bowl.


The Tigers just recently announced true freshman Bo Nix as the official starter under center for Saturday evening's matchup. Nix was a five-star recruit in high school and is a skilled dual-threat quarterback, who is also an Auburn legacy; Bo's father Patrick played QB there from 1992-1995. Jimbo Fisher was actually Auburn's quarterback coach at the time. Obviously there's the potential danger of Nix crumbling under the bright lights in his first ever collegiate game, but they obviously wouldn't name him QB1 if they didn't think he could step up. So we'll see if the coaching staff's evaluation was an accurate one come Saturday. For what it's worth, Bo Nix is a phenomenal football name. Especially for quarterback in the SEC. Luckily for Nix, he should expect some strong protection from an incredibly talented and experienced offensive line.

Expect sophomore Seth Williams to be one of Nix's main targets in the passing game; in his freshman season, Williams put up 26 catches for 534 yards and five touchdowns. Also, the coaching staff has had some good things to say about receiver Matthew Hill, who redshirted last season. The 6 foot 1 Georgia native reeled in five catches for 128 yards and two touchdowns in Auburn's spring game.

This offense has a deep group of running backs, so expect a few different guys to be heavily in the mix. The running backs are coached by the absolute legend Cadillac Williams, and he is on record saying he wants "as many guys contributing as possible." Most likely at the head of the pack will be JaTarvious Whitlow, who was Auburn's leading rusher in 2018. Whitlow went for 787 yards and six touchdowns on the ground.


I had mentioned the Auburn offensive line checking off both the "talented" and "experienced" boxes, but their defensive line may just outshine the hogs on the offense. This defensive line corps is highlighted by senior Derrick Brown, who's coming off of a stellar junior season in which he tallied 48 tackles (26 solo, 22 assisted) with 10.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks. Brown also defended two passes in 2018. The d-line also features senior Marlon Davidson, who had 46 total tackles (20 solo, 26 assisted) with 4.5 of those being for loss (2.5 sacks) and three passes defended. Nick Coe had a great sophomore season, as 13.5 of his 26 tackles were for loss, seven of them being sacks. Big Kat Bryant should contribute in his junior season, after recording 18 tackles with 3.5 sacks, and a forced fumble last year, along with a pick-six in Auburn's bowl win over Purdue.

In Mario Cristobal's first year as Oregon's head coach last season, the Ducks finished 9-4, with losses coming to Stanford, Washington State, Arizona, and Utah. Three out of those four losses are pretty reasonable, especially for a first year coach. The biggest of their nine wins were: 42-24 over Cal, an OT victory over Washington, and an ugly 7-6 win over Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl. Oregon scored an average of 34.8 points per game, while allowing an average of 27.


Most of Oregon's preseason discussion has obviously surrounded senior quarterback Justin Herbert, who is considered a consensus first round NFL draft pick next spring. I'll be completely honest with everybody here, I don't particularly see where all the hype is coming from. Now, that's not me writing off Justin Herbert and saying he's a bad player. In any sense. He'll be drafted in the first round. I'm not denying the potential for his ceiling. In his senior campaign, he very well could convert me into a believer. He finally gets to play under the same head coach in consecutive seasons for the first time in his collegiate career, which should do him nothing but favors. But as of right now, I just don't understand the amount of drooling praise this guy gets. Numerically speaking, taking the handful of basic passing statistics, he was the 3rd or 4th best quarterback just in the Pac 12 last year. Like I said, he could have an astounding season and eventually warrant all of this hype, but until then let's pump the brakes on that a bit.

In 2018, Herbert completed 59.4% of his throws, tallying 3,151 yards, 29 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He eclipsed the 300-yard mark just twice: 308 vs San Jose State and 346 in an OT loss to Stanford. A loss in which Herbert threw an overtime interception.

Herbert is athletic enough to roll out and improvise if necessary, but luckily for him, the Ducks are returning all five of their starters from the 2018 offensive line. For now, the QB's targets are unproven. I'd keep an eye on Penn State transfer Juwan Johnson, a 6 foot 4, 231 pounder from Glassboro, New Jersey. In his junior year for the Nittany Lions, Johnson 25 had catches for 352 yards and a touchdown. His sophomore year was more productive; he put up 54 receptions and 701 yards in total.

The Ducks have some serious Sophomore skill in the backfield with Travis Dye and CJ Verdell, both California natives. The Oregon State defense got absolutely sliced by these guys last year, as Dye ran for 199 yards against the Beavers, and Verdell got 187 yards of his own. And I probably shouldn't fail to mention Verdell's five rushing touchdowns that game. That added to his season totals of 1,018 yards and ten touchdowns on the ground. He definitely was involved in the passing game too, catching 27 balls for 315 yards and two touchdowns. Travis Dye totaled 739 yards and four touchdowns on 140 carries.


Oregon understandably feels confident in their defensive unit, and I'm especially excited to watch true freshman defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux (another A+ name playing in this one), the No. 1 overall recruit of his class. The kid is simply a freakish athlete, standing at 6 foot 5, weighing in at 245 pounds. He played some tight end in high school as well; his highlight tape is fun as hell. His mobility is constantly on full display, and he seems to have good instinct. Thibodeaux is on record saying his goal is to get ten sacks this season. Setting the bar high, no doubt about that.

I'm sure the little rant I had about not being sold on Justin Hebert may have given you a hunch that I'm not completely sold on Oregon as a whole. That's pretty much correct. I do think Cristobal had an impressive first season in Eugene, and I do think the program is headed in the right direction. But like I said, I'm not entirely sold on Oregon. Now Auburn isn't a title contender, and who knows what their final record will look like after their gauntlet of a schedule. But I'm more confident in the Tigers to come out on top in this one, diminishing the Pac 12's national credibility just that much more. Oregon had a successful 2018, but you can't sit there and tell me they'd finish with anything close to a similar record if they played in the SEC West. I know SEC bias can be completely exhausting, but let's take it into consideration when comparing these two teams. As of now, the Tigers are favored by 3.5. That line gives me a bit of the spooks, but if it helps your decision making, the public is currently in favor of Oregon +3.5. Tough to trust the general public.

Other games to watch this weekend: Thursday features the reigning champs, Clemson, hosting Georgia Tech. Clemson is favored by 37. Late night we've got No. 14 Utah at BYU. The Utes are favored by 6.5, with an over/under of 48.

Friday night: No. 19 Wisconsin (-11.5) at USF; No. 18 Michigan State vs Tulsa.

Saturday early games: No. 5 Ohio State vs Lane Kiffin's Florida Atlantic; Memphis (-5.5) vs Ole Miss

Saturday afternoon: No. 2 Alabama vs Duke; North Carolina vs South Carolina; No. 25 Stanford (-6) vs Northwestern

Saturday night: Florida State (-4.5) vs Boise State; No. 3 Georgia at Vanderbilt; USC (-13.5) vs Fresno State.

Sunday night: No. 4 Oklahoma (-23) vs Houston (now coached by Dana Holgorsen)

Monday night: No. 9 Notre Dame (-18) at Louisville

Enjoy the first full slate of college football. We made it.

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

College football week zero: No. 8 Florida vs. Miami

Typically week zero of the college football season doesn't quite appeal to me all that much, as there usually aren't the most exciting matchups presented until the true opening, Labor Day Weekend. But luckily we get to see the No. 8 Florida Gators take on the Miami Hurricanes (who did receive the fourth most votes of teams outside the AP top 25) for an in-state battle at Camping World Stadium in Orlando this Saturday night. Many are considering this to be a de facto state championship game, although something makes me believe that UCF fans would very, very loudly disagree. I don't know, just a hunch. And we can most definitely all agree that Florida State is not currently the best team the state of Florida has to offer.


Both of these previously dominant Floridian programs are in the midst of optimistic resurgence. Two (of the many) football programs that are in the discussion of being "back." This will be the 56th meeting between the Gators and 'Canes, and Miami leads the all-time series 29-26. This will be the first time since 2013 that the two have faced off, a game in which Miami won 21-16. In fact, Miami has won five of the last six dating back to 2001, which included the 2004 Peach Bowl and the 2001 Sugar Bowl.

Miami's 2018 season was certainly something they're putting in the rearview, as they finished with a 7-6 record which included a 35-3 loss to Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl. After coaching the 'Canes for three season, Mark Richt retired last December, which led to an unexpected return from Manny Diaz. Diaz had served under Richt as the defensive coordinator, but took the job as Temple's head coach....last December. Manny Diaz was Temple's head coach for 17 days before he returned to the U as their head coach. That is certainly an easier transition for a new head coach than an external hire, so perhaps the 'Canes turnaround can happen quicker than usual. Miami averaged 28.8 points per game last year, and allowed an average of 19.5 points per game, the 18th fewest in college football.

After what seemed to be a quarterback competition between N'Kosi Perry and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell, Miami announced redshirt freshman Jarren Williams to be QB1 for game one. Williams has only appeared briefly in a 77-0 beatdown of Savannah State last season. His play is obviously crucial, as Miami's primary concern lately has been stability under center. The 'Canes now have Dan Enos on staff as offensive coordinator and QB coach, who coached Alabama's quarterbacks last year, which should obviously aid the development of Jarren Williams. Who knows if Perry or Martell could be utilized as well; it has been reported that Tate Martell might take some reps at receiver. Something tells me we haven't heard the last of quarterback controversy for Miami in 2019.

Joining Williams in Miami's backfield is a deep running back corps, led by junior Deejay Dallas. In his sophomore season, Dallas averaged 5.7 yards per carry, totaling 617 yards and six touchdowns. He also did some serious damage in the special teams department, returning 17 kicks for a total of 367 yards (21.6 yards per return), and averaged 17.4 yards on 11 punt returns, including one he took 65 yards to the house against Pitt. He likely will be sharing carries with a few guys, including sophomore Lorenzo Lingard, whose 2018 season was ended early by a leg injury. Lingard was the No. 2 running back in his recruiting class. Also expect sophomore Cam'ron Harris to be in the mix, who averaged 5.9 yards on 28 carries last year.

A few other names to look out for on Miami's offensive side of the ball: KJ Osborn just transferred in from Buffalo after putting up 53 catches for 492 yards and four touchdowns in 2018. The 'Canes also have sophomore tight end Brevin Jordan, who earned second-team All-ACC honors by reeling in 32 catches for 287 yards and four touchdowns. He was the top tight end in his recruiting class.


Miami's defense has certainly been the main contributor to their recent stock increase, and is deservedly getting most of the shine in this preseason hype. They have a very talented and experienced group of linebackers: senior Shaq Quarterman will be drafted next spring; the All-ACC first-teamer recorded 82 tackles (45 solo, 37 assisted) with 14 of them being for loss, and six sacks. Shaq also had six QB hurries, two pass breakups, and a pick. He's joined by fellow seniors Zach McCloud (44 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss) and Michael Pinckney (74 tackles, 11 for loss, 1 INT).

The Gators are coming off a successful first season with their new head coach Dan Mullen (had previously served as offensive coordinator for Florida from 2005-2008), finishing 10-3 with a strong showing in the Peach Bowl, where they absolutely throttled Michigan 41-15. Add that to the list of big games Jim Harbaugh has not won. Florida's three losses in 2018 came to Kentucky, Georgia, and least understandably, Mizzou. On average they scored 35 points per game, which was the 22nd most nationwide, and their defense allowed 20 points per game (20th best in the country).


The Gators' offense is led by redshirt junior QB Feleipe Franks who, in 2018, completed 58.4% of his 322 throws for 2,457 yards and 24 touchdowns. Franks only threw six picks on the year. He also ran for a total of 350 yards and seven touchdowns. Franks has a good bunch of experienced targets to throw to this year; redshirt senior Van Jefferson totaled 35 receptions for 503 yards and six touchdowns last season. Senior Tyrie Cleveland caught 18 balls for 212 yards and three touchdowns. In his junior campaign, Josh Hammond tallied 28 catches for 369 yards and four touchdowns. The chemistry between these top three and Feleipe Franks should do them some favors against a fierce Miami defense.

Saturday night's rivalry renewal will feature not one, but two, disruptive defensive units. The Gators boast a ridiculous cornerback tandem in CJ Henderson and Marco Wilson. Wilson tore his ACL early last season, but put up good numbers the previous year as a freshman with 34 tackles and ten pass breakups. Henderson, a junior, is widely considered one of the best corners in college football after he had 38 tackles (five for loss, three sacks), seven pass breakups, two picks, and two forced fumbles last year. The Gators' defensive line is anchored by Jabari Zuniga, who is projected to be drafted into the NFL after this final season in Gainesville. In 2018, Zuniga recorded 45 tackles (eleven for loss, 6.5 sacks) and four QB hurries.

As I write this, the Gators are currently favored by 7.5 points, and I do think they'll not only come out on top, but I think they'll cover the spread. The first few games of the season are obviously the most difficult to predict, as everything is based off of speculation. But at the end of the day, I feel much more confident in the spot that Florida is in as a program than I do with Miami. I trust Dan Mullen more than I trust Manny Diaz. Florida has the edge in the momentum department, if that even plays a factor this many months later. Miami's recent improvement is undoubtable, but let's remember that they've been certainly short of dominant in the ACC Coastal, of all divisions.

The 'Canes had a tough go last year, as I said before it's just nothing to boast about or feel proud of. They did have an extremely hot start in 2017, winning their first ten games. That included consecutively beating up on both ranked Virginia Tech (28-10) and Notre Dame (41-8). They lost their last three games of that season: 24-14 to Pitt, 38-3 in the ACC Championship to Clemson, and 34-24 to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl. Do those two good wins in November two years ago really skip over 2018's mediocre season (again, in the ACC Coastal) and carry over to this Saturday night? The U still hasn't really convinced me. Florida isn't a national contender, but Dan Mullen has proven that they're turning things around and I trust that they'll prove to be the better team on Saturday.

Plus, if we're talking Gainesville vs. Miami, Tom Petty over Pitbull all day.