Thursday, January 9, 2020

National Championship preview: No. 1 LSU vs No. 3 Clemson

After an outrageous sixteen days of waiting, the final game of the 2019 college football season will kickoff on Monday night, as No. 1 LSU will be going up against No. 3 Clemson at 8 pm Eastern in New Orleans. The in-state Tigers are currently favored by 5.5 in this one, and a shootout is expected as the over/under is at 69.5. This will be only the fourth time the two teams have met, with every matchup being for a bowl game; LSU won 7-0 in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day of 1959, then came out on top in the 1996 Peach Bowl 10-7. The most recent meeting was on New Year's Eve of 2012, when Clemson took home the Chick-fil-A bowl with a last-second field goal to win 25-24.


This will be Clemson's fourth National Championship appearance in the last five seasons, and they'll be seeking to win their third title in just four years. This also marks LSU's fourth shot at the crown since the turn of the century; they were deemed champions in the 2003 and 2007 seasons, but were taken down by Alabama in the 2011 season. Ironically, all of the aforementioned games featuring LSU have taken place in New Orleans.

It's important to not closely compare this National Title matchup to last year's; Yes, it features the SEC Champ favored over Trevor Lawrence and Clemson. But Joe Burrow is infinitely more effective than a banged up Tua, and Clemson's defense obtains a few less NFL first round picks. It may look relatively similar at a glance, but those are some major, major differences.


It's extremely difficult to doubt Joe Burrow and LSU's offense at the moment. I was under the impression that at some point, an offense operating at this pace was bound to falter, even if it were only a slight instance. But there has been no slowing down whatsoever. I'm fully aware that Oklahoma's defense is not nearly the firmest that LSU has faced, but come on. The Heisman winner completed 74.4% of his throws for 493 yards and seven touchdowns. Seven touchdowns. In a playoff game. Putting up 63 points in the playoff, no matter the opponent, is absurdly impressive.

Like I said, this Clemson defensive unit is far more threatening than that of the Sooners: Clemson has allowed an average of 10.6 points per game, although their last two have been more than that average, letting up 17 to Virginia and 23 to Ohio State. However, Clemson's defensive strengths against the Buckeyes go much deeper than just the final score. Holding Ohio State to a few field goals in the red zone proved to be absolutely massive, along with picking off Justin Fields twice in crucial moments. Despite allowing 516 total yards of offense and 28 first downs, Clemson bent but did not break. And that's what mattered in the end. They also sacked Justin Fields four times, tallying nine tackles for loss.


This defense has allowed the fewest passing yards per game with 138.5, although Joe Burrow is lightyears ahead of any quarterback Clemson has faced (aside from Fields, who Burrow is still far better than). They've also allowed the 9th fewest rushing yards per game with 106.2. They did let Ohio State's JK Dobbins rush for 174 yards on 18 carries in their semifinal game, but also kept BC's AJ Dillon under 100 yards earlier in the year (these are the two best running backs Clemson has played). I'd say LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a little better than Dillon, but vastly inferior to Dobbins, if that helps shape your expectations for Monday night. Edwards-Helaire recorded only two carries against Oklahoma, as he was dealing with a hamstring injury that has hopefully had some time to heal with this ridiculously long break in between games. But even if he's not 100% by game time, Clemson can't just ignore defending LSU's run game, as running back Chris Curry was able to put up an effective 90 yards on 16 carries against Oklahoma.


Clemson's playoff victory over Ohio State was largely due to the defense holding their ground and preventing an early blowout, but a handful of mammoth plays by Trevor Lawrence also made highly impactful contributions. It's tough to count out the sophomore quarterback in any game; the kid hasn't lost as a starter since he was in high school. Sure, he had a less than ideal start to the season, but he hasn't thrown an interception since October 19th against Louisville. He's been going full speed ahead in the second half of the season. Lawrence's toughness was certainly on display against a monstrous Ohio State defense; he was taking some seriously massive hits repeatedly, yet kept getting up and eventually led Clemson to another berth in the National Championship. Trevor Lawrence is simply a gamer, but he will be throwing against one of the more star-studded defensive backfields in the country on Monday night.


LSU's defensive backfield, highlighted by Grant Delpit and Derek Stingley Jr., undoubtedly has some legitimate NFL talent. You'd have to go back to the Ole Miss game on November 16th to find the LSU defense allowing a team to complete over 50% of their passes. As a unit, this defense has totaled 17 interceptions and 76 pass breakups, on top of five forced fumbles. It is worth noting that LSU has allowed an average of 221.7 passing yards per game, which ranks as 9th just in the SEC (outside the top 50 nationally). Opposing quarterbacks have taken a total of 35 sacks from the LSU defense this year, which is actually the fewest of all the playoff teams (Oklahoma had 36, Clemson 41, and Ohio State 54). They have let up the 24th fewest rushing yards per game with 119.6. LSU will be trying to stop one of the nation's best running backs (and Louisiana native), Travis Etienne, who has rushed for less than 100 yards in only six games this year. To add to that, there have only been two games this season that Etienne hasn't reached the end zone, whether that be rushing or receiving.

Comparing and contrasting all of these statistics can obviously get a little shaky because of the varying opponents on each team's schedule. If you hadn't heard by now, Clemson ain't played nobody. Until they did on the big stage against Ohio State (who arguably looked as impressive as LSU throughout the regular season) and came out on top. The fact of the matter is, the ACC has sucked for years. Yet Clemson has still been able to compete with, and beat, the nation's most talented squads. They've won 29 straight games, and have earned the title as college football's new top dog. Their strength of schedule hasn't seemed to hinder their title hopes in the past few seasons, and certainly does not diminish their legitimacy.

Yet on the other side of this matchup, LSU successfully remaining undefeated through an absolute gauntlet of a schedule has rendered a general feeling of invincibility, and rightfully so. I think it's safe to say that the majority of viewers will be pulling for LSU. First and foremost, people tend to dig parity, which Clemson has been disallowing in recent years. But this LSU team has the extreme likability of Coach Orgeron, and the amazing comeback story of Joe Burrow, the newest addition to the Heisman House. They have a somewhat storybook feel to their season, and what better place to cap off a dominant run than a packed Superdome just under 90 minutes from campus?

Whatever happens in this one, let's just hope it lives up to the hype of two undefeated teams squaring off for the National Championship. I'm fully expecting a thriller that ends up being separated by just a single possession. As much as it sucks how quickly this college football season seemed to fly by, I have a good feeling it'll be concluded by a worthy battle between two incredible squads.

As always, it's been a blast writing throughout the many weeks of this past fall and early winter, and I appreciate every reader that has kept up with my work.

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