This past weekend was easily the craziest so far this college football season, as we saw No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Michigan, and No. 4 Washington all got hit with their first L of 2016. The last time that No. 2, 3, and 4 lost in the same week was 1985. To add to the hysteria, No. 8 Texas A&M and No. 9 Auburn both lost. Half of the top 10 teams were upset, but I really don't think this shakes up the playoff picture as much as many people think.
I'll be honest, when it was all said and done Saturday night, I couldn't wrap my head around what the playoff would turn out to be. My confusion was distracted by watching the King of Dublin do his thing in the octagon, which added to the pure awesomeness of Saturday's sports slate. But once Sunday morning came around, I came to the realization that the amount of top 10 teams losing really just kind of canceled each other's misery out. The Week 12 rankings won't be released until tomorrow, but regardless of who lands where, most of these teams are in control of their own destiny.
Let's start with No. 1 Alabama. It's become pretty damn clear that 'Bama is the best team in the country. Now that's not to say they'll automatically win it all; anything can happen in the playoff. This Crimson Tide squad has yet to be defeated, but they're not invincible. Having said that, any team that faces off against 'Bama in the playoff will have to be mistake-free, and the best game plan aside from being perfect is to pray that the Tide suffer crucial turnovers and penalties. The remainder of the Crimson Tide's schedule features the Chattanooga Mocs and Auburn, who suffered their third loss to Georgia this past weekend. Auburn's No. 9 ranking will certainly fall in tomorrow's rankings, but the Tigers have proved that they can compete with some good teams. The only problem is that Alabama is far beyond a "good" team. If there's anyone you should bet on to be making the playoff, it's certain that the undefeated, No. 1 team in the country is the safe choice.
The No. 2 Clemson Tigers lost on a last second field goal to Pitt, which was an absolute dagger to their confidence and momentum. Despite not losing until Saturday night, Clemson has showed that they're far from perfect. The Tigers squeaked out close wins, which should have been blowouts, against Troy and NC State. However Clemson has also provided the Playoff Committee with evidence that they deserve a spot in the final four, most notably in victories over Auburn, Louisville, and Florida State. A loss at home to Pitt was obviously not ideal, but Clemson can easily still walk into the ACC Championship if they take care of Wake Forest and South Carolina in the next two weeks, as they should. If they do make it to the conference championship, they shouldn't be challenged much as they'll most likely face off against Virginia Tech. You can't sit there and tell me that a one-loss, ACC Champion won't earn a playoff berth.
Michigan's last second, 14-13 loss to Iowa makes things a little messier as the BIG 10 is essentially wide open. Well, wide open between Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and maybe kind of Penn State? So in last week's rankings, Michigan was No. 2 and lost to unranked Iowa. Ohio State, who was No. 5 last week, put the smackdown on the second most undeserving BIG 10 team, Maryland. Wisconsin, who was No. 7, put Illinois in their place 48-3. Penn State was at the No. 10 spot, and their ranking should improve after No. 8 A&M and No. 9 Auburn lost. To me, Penn State has the least convincing argument of these teams, despite beating Ohio State a few weeks back.
When it comes down to it, Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin are all in the driver's seat of their own playoff chances. Much like the case with the ACC, I just don't think the playoff committee has any choice but to include the BIG 10 Champion. And these three teams all have a chance to play for that crown. So basically, the winner of the Michigan vs. Ohio State game will likely play Wisconsin in the conference championship, and the winner of that will go on to play in the final four. Which, let's be honest, is kind of the exact scenario we were looking at before all of these unexpected outcomes occurred on Saturday.
The fourth playoff spot did belong to Washington until they got worked by USC, which I was a fan of. I just don't think a Pac 12 team would compete in the playoff as much as other teams. But hey, what do I know? Another thing I for sure don't know is which team will eventually fill that fourth spot? Three spots will go to the champs of the SEC, ACC, and BIG 10. The ACC and BIG 10 are the only conferences that could have two teams in the playoff. If Wisconsin beat Michigan/Ohio State in the BIG 10 title game, I could see the loser of that game getting the fourth playoff spot. Regarding the ACC, Louisville's hopes of filling the fourth spot are still alive, and I think Lamar Jackson's insane performance so far will possibly persuade the committee to put them in. The only other scenario I could see for the fourth spot is a Big 12 team, which would either be Oklahoma or West Virginia. Fingers crossed that we don't have to see that, because either of those teams matched up with 'Bama would not be ideal for spectators. The only plus side to that would be watching the Big 12 get embarrassed in the playoff again.
While we're on the topic of the playoff, it's scenarios like these that get people all riled up about having an eight team playoff. But in my opinion, scenarios like this one make me love the fact that there are only four teams in the playoff. Having four teams allows college football to savor its identity; the major thing that makes college ball and the NFL is the significance of each and every regular season game. If your team slips up once, they'll have to rely on other teams to do the same. If there were an eight team playoff, we'd basically know the bracket already. The exclusiveness of the College Football Playoff is what makes earning a berth so prestigious. I could possibly, possibly, get on board with a six team playoff, with the first two seeds getting a first round bye, but extending it to eight would be an atrocity.
So regardless of what Tuesday evening's rankings present us with, I think we've got ourselves a relatively transparent idea of the playoff picture's potential.
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