College football playoff: previewing No. 2 Ohio State vs No. 3 Clemson

Finding the right words to accurately describe how much I'm looking forward to this game has proven to be a wildly difficult task. The Fiesta Bowl between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Clemson is an absolute heavyweight matchup; a plethora of NFL draft picks will be present on the field, representing two teams that have remained unblemished through thirteen games. The reigning National Champions will be facing off against the winner of the inaugural College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes are the only team that's not Clemson or Alabama to win the playoff.

There's no doubt that there is a major drop off from the No. 3 to No. 4 spot with Clemson and Oklahoma, so LSU getting the No. 1 spot over Ohio State was pretty significant. And yes, Ohio State had a pretty good argument for being No. 1 in the country, although the committee did get it right. And regardless of your ranking, if you're the best team you'll beat whoever lines up across from you. Talk all you want about strength of schedule, but these are two extremely legitimate football teams, and I'm praying that this one isn't a letdown. Kickoff from Glendale, AZ will be at 7 pm Eastern on ESPN. The Tigers are currently favored by two points.

Let's compare some of these teams' general stats from this year:

• Points per game: Ohio State 48.7  |  Clemson 46.5
• Points allowed per game: Ohio State 12.5  |  Clemson 10.6
• Total yards per game: Ohio State 531.0  |  Clemson 547.7
• Yards allowed per game: Ohio State 247.6  |  Clemson 244.7

Taking these four statistics into account, Ohio State and Clemson have been elite in 2019; Clemson leads the nation in both fewest points allowed per game, and fewest yards allowed per game. Ohio State ranks second in both of those categories. On the offensive side of the ball, Ohio State has put up the most points per game in the country, while having the fifth most total yards per game. Clemson has the third highest point average, and the fourth most yards per game.

The last time Clemson lost a game was on New Year's day of 2018 to Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinal. Ohio State hasn't lost since October 20th of 2018 in an upset to Purdue. Both squads have been absolutely clobbering their opponents, although the Buckeyes have overcome greater obstacles throughout the 2019 schedule; Ohio State's last three wins were over No. 8 Wisconsin, No. 14 Michigan, and No. 10 Penn State. Meanwhile Clemson's last three victories came against No. 24 Virginia, South Carolina, and Wake Forest.

The dynamic duo of quarterback Justin Fields (finished fourth in Heisman voting) and running back JK Dobbins has proven to be quite the conundrum for opposing defenses. With two freak athletes like that in the backfield, Ohio State is able to run option plays with relative ease. Fields has rushed for 471 yards on 123 carries with ten touchdowns, while Dobbins has totaled 1,829 rushing yards (third most) and 20 touchdowns (sixth most) on 283 carries.

The Tigers also boast a top-tier run threat in junior Travis Etienne, who has been tremendously efficient for this offense. Etienne's touchdown (17) and rushing yard (1,500) totals aren't quite as many as Dobbins', but he's in the top-ten for both of those categories on 101 less carries than Dobbins. Etienne is leading the country in yards per carry with 8.2. In the case that Clemson's passing game is disrupted, they're lucky enough to have a guy who produces big plays like Travis Etienne.

So yes, Clemson is lucky enough to have a good running back if their air-attack faces some issues. But unfortunately for Clemson, they have to go up against college football's best pass rusher Chase Young, who finished third in Heisman voting. Young leads the nation in sacks with 16.5, despite missing two games due to suspension. Those two games were against Rutgers and Maryland. Can you imagine the stat-padding he could've accomplished against Rutgers and Maryland? On top of all those sacks, the star defensive end has forced six fumbles. Young isn't the only beast on this Buckeye defense either; as a unit they've totaled 51 total sacks and fifteen interceptions. And in terms of stopping the run, Ohio State has allowed an average of 99.5 rushing yards per game.

As the numbers and the film show, Clemson's defense is also really damn good. Definitely don't expect the Tigers to hold this Ohio State offense to only ten points like they've averaged throughout the season. Brent Venables' Clemson defense is highlighted by junior linebacker Isaiah Simmons. He's projected to be a first round NFL draft pick, and has compiled 2019 honors such as the Butkus Award and the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Simmons is a versatile defender, as he's effective rushing off the edge and lining up as a backer. On the year, he's racked up 93 total tackles (58 solo, 35 assisted) which leads the team, along with six sacks, a forced fumble, and two interceptions.

It's certainly not breaking news that this game will feature two of the best quarterbacks that college football has to offer, with Justin Fields being under center for the Buckeyes, and Trevor Lawrence for the Tigers. Fields is definitely much more of a dual-threat than Lawrence, although the Clemson QB is still pretty mobile when necessary. Lawrence (3,172) leads Fields (2,953) in passing yards, but Lawrence has thrown 24 more passes this season. Fields has an absolutely ridiculous touchdown to interception ratio, as he's completed 40 throws into the end zone while only throwing one interception. Lawrence has recorded 34 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. Their completion percentages are on par with each other: Fields has completed 67.5% of his passes and Lawrence has connected on 68.8% of his.

I've developed a firm belief that the winner of this game will go on to eventually be crowned as National Champions, regardless of who it is. If you're looking to me for answers on which team will leave this semifinal game victorious, I'm probably not your guy. Both of these teams are so damn good all around, that it's impossible for me to settle on an outcome in which one of them loses. Which is ridiculous, because that obviously has to happen. And as much as I think/want/need it to be a close and exhilarating matchup, both teams are so good that they seem capable of blowing anyone out. When it's all said and done, I'd be stunned if this wasn't the better of the two playoff games on Saturday.

College football playoff: previewing No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Oklahoma

This Saturday afternoon in Atlanta, we get to see the No. 1 LSU Tigers take on the No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners in the College Football Playoff semifinal. The odds are stacked against Lincoln Riley and the Sooners, as LSU (led by the Coach of the Year) is favored by 13.5. The Peach Bowl kicks off at 4 pm Eastern on ESPN.

Statistically, both of these teams are very comparable. One could even say eerily comparable when taking these numbers into account:

• Points per game: LSU 47.8  |  Oklahoma 43.2
• Points allowed per game: LSU 21.2  |  Oklahoma 24.5
• Total yards per game: LSU 554.3  |  Oklahoma 554.2
• Yards allowed per game: LSU 341.3  |  Oklahoma 330.6

Now, one could sit here and argue that these numerical comparisons are influenced by varying external factors, mainly strength of schedule, but none of that will matter once opening kickoff arrives. 

LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, your 2019 Heisman Trophy winner, is obviously the most noteworthy player that will be on the field in Atlanta on Saturday. On 439 attempts this year, Burrow has thrown for a whopping 4,715 yards (2nd most) and 48 touchdowns (most in the country), with a completion rate of 77.9%. Burrow did all of this while only throwing six interceptions. The newest addition to the Heisman House has undeniable talent and poise; LSU's schedule featured a handful of huge games, and this kid never seemed to lose his cool. 

Burrow has had plenty of fun throwing to one of the nation's best wide receivers, sophomore Ja'Marr Chase. He leads the nation in reception yards (1,498) and touchdown receptions (18) on 73 catches (averaging 20.5 yards per reception). There have only been four games this year in which Chase hasn't tallied reception yards in the triple digits: 21 yards vs Georgia Southern, 54 yards vs Utah State, 48 vs Mississippi State, and 41 against Georgia in the SEC Championship. Chase's most dominant performance came on the road at Vanderbilt, where he caught ten passes for 229 yards and four touchdowns. 

LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a big-time difference maker in this offense, but the team may be without their leading rusher on Saturday. The junior is dealing with a hamstring injury, and it is uncertain if he will play. Even if he does, which he might, who really knows how effective he'll be. Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 1,290 yards and 16 touchdowns (11th most nationwide) on 197 carries (6.5 yards per rush). He's also tallied 399 reception yards this season on 50 catches. Throughout the year, he has eclipsed 100 yards on the ground six different times, most notably when he ran for 188 yards on only six carries against Arkansas. 

The Tigers' defensive unit is highlighted by two absolute studs in the defensive backfield: junior safety Grant Delpit and freshman cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. Delpit has had the honor of wearing No. 7 for LSU this season, and is projected by many to be a first round NFL draft pick in the spring. He is the 2019 Jim Thorpe award winner, which is given to college football's top defensive back. The consensus All-American has racked up 56 tackles (3 TFL, 1 sack), two picks, and eight pass breakups. And then Stingley has been one of, if not the, most impressive freshmen in the country. The Baton Rouge native was deemed a consensus All-American, as he totaled 34 tackles, six interceptions (5th most nationwide) and 21 pass breakups. It will be difficult for the Sooners to rely heavily on their passing game against a defensive backfield like this one.

Taking a look at the Big 12 Champs, Oklahoma will be hoping that Jalen Hurts' abundant playoff experience from his past life at Alabama will translate into success in the semifinal spotlight. It's indisputable that LSU has the more proven football team, but if the Sooners are able to pull off something special, it will rely on Jalen Hurts absolutely balling out. Which, for the record, he is capable of. But to what extent? On the year, Hurts has been a force throwing for 3,634 yards (9th most) and 32 touchdowns (tied for 10th most), while also rushing for 1,255 yards and 18 touchdowns.  Hurts possesses a rare form of athleticism, which allows him to make big plays amidst chaos, something the LSU certainly plans on providing. Hurts' talent combined with his big game experience could potentially disrupt LSU's path to glory. In Oklahoma's regular season finale against Oklahoma State, Hurts recorded a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown like the jack of all trades that he is. 

Hurts' favorite receiver is one of the most dangerous playmakers in all of college football, CeeDee Lamb. Quite frankly, CeeDee Lamb has the ability to gain big yardage and/or get into the end zone anytime the ball is in his hands. The way he can make multiple defenders look silly is truly something to marvel at. There's not a single doubt in my mind that he'll be a first round pick in the spring. The junior out of Richmond, TX has reeled in 58 catches for 1.208 yards (8th most) for an average of 20.8 yards per reception (7th best). His 14 touchdown catches are tied for the 4th most in the country. Lamb has recorded over 100 yards in six different games this season: 173 on eight catches against Iowa State, 135 on five catches at Kansas State, 171 on ten against Texas, 185 on seven against Texas Tech, and 144 on six against South Dakota. 

Although Jalen Hurts is leading Oklahoma in rushing this year, a few different running backs have been pretty significant contributors as well: Kennedy Brooks is averaging 6.7 yards per carry on 145 touches with five touchdowns. Trey Sermon has been accountable for four touchdowns and 385 yards, with an average of 7.1 yards per carry. Unfortunately for this run-attack, Rhamondre Stevenson is suspended for this game; he's totaled 515 yards on 64 carries, which is an eight-yard average, and has tallied six trips to the end zone. 

Stevenson isn't the only significant loss due to suspension, as Oklahoma's best pass rusher, defensive end Ronnie Perkins, is also being forced to sit this one out. The sophomore out of Saint Louis has put up 38 tackles (28 solo, 10 assisted) and six sacks this year, on top of a forced fumble back in week one. Perkins led the defense in sacks, although sophomore defensive tackle Jalen Redmond is right behind him with 5.5. The unit as a whole has totaled 35 sacks. As we all know, the LSU offense loves to utilize Burrow's arm, so the Sooners' pass rush absolutely needs to show up.

These two teams have faced off only two times before this: a 35-0 victory for Oklahoma all the way back in 1950, and a 21-14 win for LSU to cap off the 2003 season, giving Nick Saban his first of many National Championships. This is LSU's first appearance in the College Football Playoff, and Oklahoma has appeared in the final four twice before. Whether the Sooners' past in the playoff serves as "experience" or a reminder of coming up short, well that's up to your discretion. In 2015 Oklahoma got spanked 37-13 by Clemson. And then in 2017 at the Rose Bowl, they lost in an overtime thriller to Georgia. So there is a trend of progression in their semifinal appearances, and we'll see if they're able to take the next step after a playoff absence last season.

It all boils down to this: it'd take some shocking events for Oklahoma to pull this off. They're not a terrible team; they deserve this playoff spot. But LSU is a well-oiled machine and seems to have everything going for them. Oklahoma won all of their games except one, but they weren't beating legitimate competition in a convincing fashion. Yet the Tigers were able to get through a gauntlet of a schedule with an undefeated record. While Oklahoma does have some truly electric players, Coach O's boys have been simply phenomenal and I really struggle to believe the Sooners will be able to keep up with them all game. 

College football playoff rankings: conference championship week

The regular season is officially in the rearview and conference championship matchups are set, with the playoff picture being less than a week away from being complete. The rankings revealed this evening are as follows:

1. Ohio State (12-0) 
2. LSU (12-0)
3. Clemson (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Utah (11-1)
6. Oklahoma (11-1)
7. Baylor (11-1)
8. Wisconsin (10-2)
9. Florida (10-2)
10. Penn State (10-2)
11. Auburn (9-3)
12. Alabama (10-2)
13. Oregon (10-2)
14. Michigan (9-3)
15. Notre Dame (10-2)
16. Iowa (9-3)
17. Memphis (11-1)
18. Minnesota (10-2)
19. Boise State (11-1)
20. Cincinnati (10-2)
21. Appalachian State (11-1)
22. USC (8-4)
23. Virginia (9-3)
24. Navy (9-2)
25. Oklahoma State (8-4)

This weekend for the conference championships, we have the following teams facing off:

• SEC: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 4 Georgia
• BIG 10: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Wisconsin 
• Big 12: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 7 Baylor
• Pac 12: No. 5 Utah vs. No. 13 Oregon
• ACC: No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 23 Virginia
• AAC: No. 17 Memphis vs. No. 20 Cincinnati 

The SEC title between LSU and Georgia is obviously colossal, featuring two of the nation's top-four teams. I get the feeling that if Georgia can pull it off, LSU will only drop to the No. 4 spot, leading to a playoff with two SEC teams for the second time. There's no guarantee of that happening, but I could definitely see it. LSU is currently favored by 7.5 over the Bulldogs.

Wisconsin jumped up four spots after beating Minnesota and taking home Paul Bunyan's Axe on Saturday. I think the Badgers' new position in the rankings would allow them a playoff berth if they overcome a 16.5 point spread in Indy on Saturday. That seems like it'll take miraculous measures as the Buckeyes look like an absolute freight train going full speed ahead. But if the seemingly impossible happens, defeating a team as impressive as Ohio State would certainly catapult the Badgers four more spots, especially since beating Minnesota did just that. 

The ACC Championship is expected to be a complete blowout, as we've got the reigning National Champs taking on a team that just entered the rankings. Clemson is favored by 28 against Virginia, as the Tigers look to extend their win streak to 28. It seems that people have convinced themselves that this Clemson team isn't of the same caliber as the program's heavyweights of recent years. Anyone who knows what they're talking about wouldn't consider this team an underdog by any means. But I do genuinely think the vast majority of football fans haven't had the Tigers in the front of their minds because of the ACC's poor quality. Those people will be very surprised by Clemson when the playoff rolls around, because this team has not been messing around in the slightest. A playoff win is certainly not a given whatsoever, but anyone who completely writes off Clemson against either LSU or Ohio State because of a weak conference, is quite frankly in the wrong. Since that 21-20 nail biter over UNC many weeks ago, the Tigers have allowed an average of 8.71 points per game, while scoring an average of 50.42 points through those last seven games. So yes, Clemson plays an extremely easy schedule, but they've been making an absolute mockery of their competition.

The biggest question heading into this weekend is, what happens if Utah joins LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson as conference champions? And how will the outcome of the Big 12 Championship affect the Utes' playoff shot? Oregon was in the same discussion before losing to Arizona State two weekends ago, but now their role in the playoff discussion is just potentially disrupting Utah's path to getting in. So far, the Utes have only fallen to No. 22 USC: a respectable seven-point loss all the way back in September. Other than that loss, only one game involving Utah has been separated by less than two possessions: a 33-28 victory on the road at Washington. In all of the Utes' other wins, their average margin of victory has been 29.4. So sure, you can sit there and make the argument that the Pac 12 is subpar, and that Utah's schedule lacks many major challenges. But aside from losing to a solid USC team, they seriously took care of business throughout the whole season. Despite Oregon now having two losses (the Auburn loss looks slightly better after the Iron Bowl last Saturday), it would be a high quality win in a conference championship game after steamrolling the majority of opponents for Utah. This Friday night, Utah is favored by 6.5 against the Ducks.

Oklahoma's sole loss came in late October by seven points to Kansas State, which obviously isn't all that great whatsoever. But what's more concerning is Oklahoma's lackluster rebound since adding a tally to the loss column. After losing to K-State, the Sooners then edged out Iowa State by a single point, followed by a three point victory over Baylor, and then a four point win over TCU. Yes, the Baylor game added a top-ten win to Oklahoma's resume. And yes, Baylor has performed well this season, as Oklahoma has been their only loss. But you can't sit there and tell me that beating Baylor by a field goal translates to deserving a spot to compete with LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson. If the Sooners do indeed beat Baylor for a second time in the Big 12 title game, I think they'll need to win in very convincing fashion (like, by at least three possessions) to really torque themselves into the playoff.

And what if Baylor avenges their only loss to Oklahoma, crowning the Bears as Big 12 Champions? I'd say the same thing goes for them, too; they would need to really dominate this game in order to get in over Utah (assuming they beat Oregon). Both of these teams seem less impressive to me than Utah. Back when Ohio State convinced the playoff committee by winning the conference championship 59-0 over Wisconsin, the Big 12 stupidly didn't have a conference championship game. That eventually left TCU (or potentially Baylor) out of the playoff. They obviously do now, but just the accolade of winning your conference shouldn't automatically get you in. The BIG 10 trophy didn't get Ohio State into the playoff in 2014, it was the fact that they capitalized on one final opportunity to prove their worth to the committee by playing well and turning heads. The committee is only human; recency bias undoubtedly plays a factor. Neither Baylor or Oklahoma will get in over a Pac 12 champion Utah if the Big 12 Championship is kept close by either team. And even if the Sooners or Bears dominate this game, they better hope that if Utah wins, it's in a gritty nail biter. 

Come Sunday evening, all of this ranting and raving and hypothesizing throughout the year about the potential playoff will be rendered useless. But once again, I couldn't have had a better time doing it. Let's see how this weekends's games turn out, and let's get us a finalized playoff picture.