Monday, March 19, 2018

Dan Hurley to UConn? Or Pitt? Or nowhere at all?

First things first: if this is the end, I do not begrudge Hurley for a second. But there's plenty of chatter out there that this, in fact, is not it; check out Joe Kayata, Yianni Kourakis, Chris DiSano and others who have a wayyyyyyy better pulse on this kind of thing than I do.  

As for Hurley, he inherited a mess at URI and had the team in the NIT within three seasons and by the fifth and sixth seasons, a round of 32 NCAA tournament team. It would have been sooner if EC Matthews didn't tear his ACL nine minutes into the 2015-16 season. URI went further than Providence each season in the tournament, but I digress. During my junior year at URI, when the team went 7-24 in 2011-12, I don't think anyone could have foreseen a run like this coming. 

Hurley's not from Rhode Island (or Connecticut or Pennsylvania, for what it's worth; he's a New Jersey native and played at Seton Hall). Assuming he'll be a lifer in Kingston is probably shortsighted. In the words of the great American philosopher Rob Gronkowski, "bands a make her dance."

My only question is...are we SURE that UConn is THAT much better of a job then URI right now? 

If the Huskies were in a real conference -- which they fully deserve to be in, by the way -- this wouldn't even really be a topic of conversation. It's one of my biggest pet peeves going that UConn was left out of the "new" Big East, that the ACC picked Louisville as a replacement for Maryland...and don't even get me started on the B1G choosing Rutgers over UConn. 

The Huskies, and Huskies fans, deserve better than the American Athletic Conference hodgepodge. There's a few great programs at the top in Cincinnati, Memphis and Wichita State, maybe Temple and SMU in a given year, but that's about it. 

Four national championships since 1999. That's more than Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Kansas, UCLA, you name it. UConn is more than a real program when things are firing right; it's a spectacular program.

Kevin Ollie winning a national championship in 2013-14, the first year of The American, was an impossible story not to root for. Throw in the fact that it came against John Calipari's latest batch of one-and-done's at Kentucky, it was practically the U.S. over the Soviets circa 1980 at Lake Placid. 

Which is why it's so remarkable that things have gone this far south four years later. UConn let go of Ollie earlier this month citing "just cause," with the cloud of a potential NCAA investigation hanging over Storrs. Not that I have any faith in the NCAA, which is a dumpster fire of an organization, but what if UConn receives a postseason ban? Doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out that's something Hurley must consider.

What also must be considered is that in the five years The American has existed, the Atlantic-10 has had a higher overall conference RPI in three of them. With Wichita State in the mix this year for the AAC, that tilted the scale in the AAC's favor more than any of the previous five seasons -- for either league. Which is why I thought the A-10 should have made a run at the Shockers, but that's another story for another time.

As far as Pitt? Yes, the ACC is a great league...even if it did produce the first No. 1 seed ever to lose to a No. 16 seed in the NCAA tournament. Jamie Dixon did a great job at Pitt last decade, but even on its best of days today, can the Panthers consistently compete with a Duke, UNC, 'Cuse or Virginia? Is it even that much better of a job than, say, Louisville or N.C. State? Virginia Tech?

The short answer is no, and the long answer is that nine players have been granted their release from a team that just went 0-18 in ACC play this season. Pitt hasn't finished above .500 in ACC play since its first year in the league (2013-14), and even before this year's nadir, went 4-14 in league play last season. Remember how badly BC botched the end of Al Skinner's tenure? Amplify that by 1,000 for how badly Pitt botched the end of the Jamie Dixon era. 

There are 351 NCAA Division I men's basketball teams, and 350 won at least one game in conference play this season. Pitt did what no team had done in two full seasons: it failed to win a game in conference play. Funny enough, BC also did it in the ACC in 2015-16, as did lowly Chicago State in the Western Athletic Conference that same season. Add it all up and yes, it just might be something for Hurley to consider.

On the Rhode Island end of things, what more can be done to keep Hurley in Kingston? There are limitations, of course, as an athletic program. This isn't Texas or Ohio State or Alabama here.

Me personally? I'd cut the football team if that's what it took to come up with the money to keep Hurley in town. That won't happen in a zillion years, so there aren't many other avenues to take.

This dance has happened pretty much every season since Hurley arrived in Kingston, and it'll probably happen after every season until Hurley does finally leave.

Unless he doesn't. Maybe he'll reach that untouchable status Mark Few seems to have at Gonzaga, where the bigger schools don't seem to even bother trying to pry him away anymore.

Hurley has perhaps his finest recruiting class coming in next fall, featuring four-star recruits Jermaine Harris, a center and No. 83 on the ESPN100, and fellow four-star small forward Dana Tate. Shooting guard Brendan Adams and Tyrese Martin are each three-star recruits, rounding out the class.

For context, the only two four-star guys Hurley's brought in during his tenure have been EC Matthews and Jared Terrell. It's no accident that the success they've both had -- along with Hassan Martin, Jarvis Garrett, Stan Robinson, etc. -- have made it easier to lure four-star recruits to a school that's not exactly a renowned basketball power.

Martin graduated last year, while Matthews, Terrell, Garrett, Robinson and Andre Berry are out the door this spring. The only recognizable names who'll be back on next year's roster, aside from the recruits, are Jeff Dowtin, Fatts Russell, Cyril Langevine and to a lesser extent, Nicola Akele.

In that regard, having coached only three players who are sure to be contributors on next year's team, maybe it is a perfect time for Hurley, 45, to continue to ascend through the ranks of college basketball coaching. It just doesn't feel like a job to truly ascend with is available.

1 comment:

  1. Great article. I think URI needs to do everything they can to keep Hurley, even if it's for just 2 or 3 more years. This is a pivotal time. URI was a sleeping giant for hoops that is literally just rubbing it's eyes and looking to be fully awake. If Hurley stays, that giant will be pounding down the doors and become a monster in the next 2 or 3 years. Then the ball will continue to roll nonstop and will survive the loss of a coach like Hurley.

    Also of note, I've wanted the A10 to invite Wich State since the new Big East stole Xavier and Butler. The AAC *might* be a better conference than the A10, but it is marginally better at best.

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