Previewing the College Football Playoff

For the first time since New Year's Day of 2015, we are fortunate to start the year in the best way possible; with the College Football Playoff. The way it was meant to be. Not that the College Football Playoff on New Year's Eve of 2015 and 2016 were a bad time by any means, but it's just flat out better on New Year's Day. And honestly, I have a feeling that this semifinal round will be the most competitive one that the College Football Playoff has presented.

Well, not that the previous years of the CFP semifinal have really provided many nail biters. The closest game in the round-of-four was in the playoff's inaugural 1 vs. 4 matchup, in which Cardale Jones and Ohio State upset top-ranked Alabama 42-35. The other five semifinal games in the playoff's history have been decided by no fewer than 17 points.

The long gap between conference championship weekend and the playoff keeps everyone more than eager and anxious. It also diminishes a lot of the momentum that teams had built up throughout the journey of the regular season. This means that the playoff games really come down to coaching and depth. I mean, look at the three coaches who have won the CFP: Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, and Dabo Swinney. The three best coaches in the country, without a doubt. And lucky for us, we get to see two thirds of that top tier coach against each other on January 1st.

No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Alabama

Part three of the Alabama vs. Clemson saga is the final four's headline matchup, as the Tide and Tigers have split the last two National Championships. So naturally, this game has the aura of a championship around it. And when it's all said and done, I strongly believe the winner of this game will go on to be the champion of the College Football Playoff. These are the two deepest and best-coached teams in the country. 

Alabama has received plenty of underwhelmed reviews from spectators this season, with many thinking the Crimson Tide just doesn't have the typical "it" factor this year that we are so used to seeing. That's somewhat understandable, seeing as they haven't really beat any entirely impressive opponents. Squeaking by Mississippi State by seven points doesn't really help their stock, and neither does getting rolled by Auburn in a 26-14 loss. But at the same time, it's a Nick Saban coached Alabama team. It's tough to truly, genuinely doubt them. 

I think the bar has been set so high for Alabama after such an impressive run of dominance, that even when they're truly one of the best four teams in the country, it's still easy to feel unimpressed. But Saban and his boys don't care if we're impressed by them or not. In fact, I'm sure they love feeling a sense of external doubt. If anything, that might help them play with some more fire on top of their ridiculous talent and skill. 

Much like expectations being sky-high for 'Bama year in and year out, Clemson quarterbacks for the next few generations will always have the massive shoes of Deshaun Watson to fill. A quarterback who led the team to its first National Championship victory since 1981. A quarterback who was drafted first round in the NFL. A quarterback who would likely have won Offensive Rookie of the Year until he tore his ACL. 

I think the superstardom of Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant is largely overshadowed by his predecessor's outrageous résumé. He's certainly not Deshaun Watson, but he's a freak athlete who is surrounded by a more complete team than Watson was. I firmly believe the Tigers are still a National Champion-caliber team, but then again so is Alabama. I think this is Clemson's last year before they fully enter Alabama's territory of neutral fans wanting to see them lose to mix things up. 

I'm really hoping we don't see any key injuries in the third part of this recent rivalry. In Part One, we saw Clemson's shutdown corner Mackensie Alexander suffer a hamstring injury on, if a recall correctly, only the second play of the game. Now I don't know if the end result would have changed had Alexander stayed healthy, but 'Bama did rely on their passing game much more than expected for the remainder of that close battle. Again, maybe 'Bama still would have won. Maybe Clemson would have won, it doesn't matter. It's in the past. But I can tell you pretty damn confidently that Clemson would not have won Part Two if Alabama running back Bo Scarbrough didn't get hurt. He was absolutely rolling over Clemson's defense. But hey, injuries are part of the game. Let's just hope we don't have to see any in Part Three. Safety first, then teamwork. 

Alabama is favorited in this game by three points, which I don't find entirely shocking. It's a very fair line and despite being the "last team in" for this year's playoff, they've earned their stripes throughout the years. Seed number is irrelevant when it comes to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the postseason. They're the favorites to win year in, and year out. 

Having said that, I still think Clemson will come out on top. It will undoubtedly live up to the hype, just as the other two battles between the Tigers and Tide. This will likely end up being the game of the year. I just think I'm leaning with Clemson because they've wow'd me a little more throughout the season. But hey, maybe that's just expecting too much out of 'Bama. But like I said earlier, despite the outcome of this game, I like the winner as the eventual champion.

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Oklahoma

It really speaks volumes to Clemson and Alabama that the SEC Champion taking on the Heisman winner isn't the headline game. The Georgia Bulldogs face-off against Baker Mayfield and the Oklahoma Sooners on Monday at 5 p.m. Eastern Time. The Dawgs are favored by two points over the Big 12 Champs.

To be honest, I was a little surprised to see such a minuscule spread in this game. I don't think it will be a blowout, but I think Georgia is more than two points better than Oklahoma. This matchup is a high-powered offense led by a star QB, going up against a team that can shut you down on defense and run it down your throat. I like the Bulldogs in this one because they're simply a more complete unit than the Sooners.

Oklahoma's offense this season has been remarkable; there's absolutely no doubt about that. They have averaged 44.9 points per game, which is the fourth most in the entire country. Baker Mayfield has thrown for the second most touchdowns this year (41) and the second most passing yards (4,340).  And not that the Sooners' first choice is keeping it on the ground, but they still have recorded an average of 215.9 rushing yards per game, which is the 27th best in the country.

Much like the rest of their conference, Oklahoma flaunts a prime offense which is held back by a subpar defense. This year's Oklahoma defense has impressed me more than in past seasons, and it's not like they're bottom of the barrel. But when you're going up against the three best teams in the nation, you need more than an "okay" defense. The Sooners have allowed 25 points per game and 385 yards per game. Georgia has been heavily reliant on their star running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, and the Sooners D has allowed an average of 144.2 rushing yards per game.

Chubb and Michel should be expected to do the brunt of the work for the Dawgs on Monday. Chubb is averaging 90.3 yards per game and has totaled 13 rushing touchdowns. In Georgia's first go-around with Auburn, Chubb was limited to only 27 yards on the ground. However, he made up for that in the SEC Championship by putting up 77 yards. His best game of the year was against Kentucky, where he ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Sony Michel has matched Chubb's 13 rushing touchdowns on the year, and his averaging 7.2 yards per carry (Chubb is averaging 6.2 yards per carry). To put it simply, this running back duo is lethal, and I don't trust the Oklahoma defense to stop them.

Some people may find it difficult to count out college football's most outstanding player, Baker Mayfield. There's actually a pretty decent rate of Heisman winners going on to win the National Championship, as it's happened five times since 2004: Derrick Henry in 2015, Jameis Winston in 2013, Cam Newton in 2010, Mark Ingram in 2009, and Matt Leinart in 2004. That narrative is obviously a least partially impacted by the CFP being introduced.

Baker Mayfield was such a clear and obvious choice for the Heisman, as he's extremely talented to an outlandish level. But as I mentioned earlier, winning playoff games requires depth and great coaching. Head Coach Lincoln Riley has done a tremendous job in his first year, that goes without saying. But his squad lacks the depth that the other three teams have. And it's not every day that the Sooners face-off against a defense of Georgia's caliber. The Bulldogs have only allowed 13.2 points per game, the fourth-fewest in the country. They've also only allowed an average 158.3 passing yards per game, the second-fewest in the country. Mayfield and the Sooners won't be completely shut down, but the Bulldogs aren't a cupcake Big 12 defense.

I believe we'll be seeing a Clemson vs. Georgia National Championship, although any combination of these four teams would be pretty awesome. So buckle up everybody, and have a great start to 2018.

Being upset over Gronk's one-game suspension is foolish

So now that it's official, after an attempted appeal was denied, we can now react to Rob Gronkowski's one-game suspension for his late hit in Buffalo on Sunday.

Gronk's hit after the whistle on Buffalo's Tre'Davious White was wildly uncharacteristic for the goofy tight end that seems to be universally loved, but that doesn't make up for the fact that it was a vicious act.

I think the most asinine takes I've heard about this situation are the homers who claim his reaction was justified because he got held/interfered with before the interception. "He's fed up with not getting calls his whole career!" That may be so, but launching into the back of an opponents head after the whistle is no way to start having calls go your way. I mean, this was even before talks of a suspension, people were justifying the hit itself, regardless of the consequences. Can you imagine if Travis Kelce had done this to Devin McCourty in the season opener? Oh my god, everyone in the New England area would be calling for him to be suspended for the year. So anyone saying Gronk's hit was justified because he was held, get out of my face with that. Erroneous.

Now onto the actual punishment for the hit: a one-game suspension that Gronk tried to appeal, but the league upheld. I think that's rational. For a fanbase that constantly (and rightfully) criticizes the way that the NFL handles issues, it's awfully hypocritical to disagree with penalizing a hit to the head of a defenseless player. I mean, White was on the ground, the whistle had blown, and a 6'6" 265 pound frame willingly launched itself into the back of his head. Again, if an opponent had done that to a Patriot, nobody in New England would say it was justified. I'm not saying Gronk is a bad guy in any sense. Emotions run high on game day, he messed up, he apologized, and now he's paying the price.

A lot of people's issue with the Gronk suspension is the "inconsistency" in similar acts and their respective punishments this season. I've heard many mention the two-game suspensions of Michael Crabtree and Aqib Talib being reduced to one-game after an appeal.



I'd say the one comparable aspect of the two scenarios is that neither Gronkowski's hit or the fist fight are football plays. Both scenarios are extracurricular bologna. But what it comes down to is that Crabtree and Talib were both willingly throwing fists. Neither player was "defenseless" by any means. They hate each other and they wanted to settle it in a way that wasn't just playing football.

Another scenario that has been brought up is Tampa Bay's Mike Evans absolutely blasting Saints' cornerback Marshon Lattimore a few weeks back.



Evans was suspended one-game for this act, which should say everything there is to say about Gronk's suspension. Evans knowingly wrecked a defenseless Lattimore after the whistle. It was a non-football play. It was a reckless move. It was highly dangerous, and there's no place in the game for stuff like that. Seems pretty reasonable to me.

Another scrap that the NFL brought in the month of November came between Jacksonville's Jalen Ramsey and Cincinnati's A.J. Green.



Again, it's important for fans to recognize the difference between a situation like this and the Gronkowski hit. These two players exchanged shoves, and one could maybe make the argument that Ramsey was "defenseless" for a split second before Green put him in a chokehold. Punches were thrown, but I think it's a little different than the Talib vs. Crabtree fight where two guys are dancing on their feet and squaring up. Neither Ramsey or Green received a suspension, just heavy fines. You could argue that there are inconsistencies in punishments for fist fights during the game, but Gronk's hit on White was far from a fist fight.

Monday night's matchup between the Bengals and Steelers brought two suspensions, both one-game, for Pittsburgh's JuJu Smith-Schuster and George Iloka. Iloka's suspension was successfully appealed, whereas Smith-Schuster will be out this week against Baltimore for his monster block on the league's #1 scum bag Vontaze Burfict.



To be honest, I'm a little iffy about this suspension, although I can understand where the league is coming from. We all witnessed an absolute bloodbath on Monday night that certainly got out of hand. I don't think JuJu would be sitting out a week if: 1) the violence of that game as a whole didn't generate so much negative PR for the NFL, and 2) JuJu didn't stand over Burfict after the hit. I don't necessarily blame him for asserting his dominance after the hit; a 21 year old rookie wide receiver dropping a brick house of a linebacker is an impressive feat. He was probably feeling on top of the world. Still, a dumb move that most likely led to his suspension, but as a fan I didn't hate the act of standing over Burfict and staring him in the eyes. A dumb move, but a ballsy one.

So back to Gronk. The only one of these scenarios that was similar to Gronkowski's shenanigans is the Mike Evans hit, which also received a one-game suspension. I think for the first time in our lives, the NFL has shown some form of consistency in penalization.

I genuinely believe that Gronk feels terrible about his actions, as he stated. I don't think it was likely that we'd see him do something like this again anyway, but the one-game suspension will reinforce that. That's the whole point of punishment: to reinforce that the mistake won't happen again.

If you're complaining about the one-game suspension of Rob Gronkowski, you're a fool. It always sucks to see one of your best players forced to sit out a game, but that's on him. If the Patriots lose to the Dolphins on Monday night, the issues that come along with that will go beyond the absence of a star tight end. The good news is that Gronk will be back for the Pittsburgh game, and for now that should be every Patriot fans' biggest concern.

2017-2018 CFB Toilet Bowl Preview

Bowl season is here, and with it comes your annual slate of toilet bowl matchups between non-Power Five teams, the type of games that even the average college football gambling degenerate like me looks at and goes "yeeeesh I don't know about that one." We'll get into previewing the playoff and all of the major/Power Five vs. Power Five matchups later this month, but today, we're going to talk about the games that are the equivalent of a tipped over porter-potty. Let's do it.

*Flanny is not liable for your dumb degenerate ass losing money on some wild college football bet. If these picks do not pan out don't get mad, get help, at the National Problem Gambling Hotline (1-800-522-4700) and delete Bovada off of your freaking phone, idiot. 

Cure Bowl (12/16)
Georgia State (6-5) vs. Western Kentucky (6-6)

The NCAA decided to begin bowl season by banging out five of these suckers on day-one, and the Cure Bowl matchup between Georgia State and Western Kentucky certainly is not the prize of the afternoon. Western Kentucky finished the season losers of four of their last five and one of their six losses on the year came to an absolutely horrible Illinois team that finished 2-10. Georgia State, meanwhile, finished the season on a two-game losing streak and the lowlight of their season came in the form of a 56-0 b****-smacking at the hands of Penn State. Georgia State has had trouble scoring this season, as the Panthers were held to 14-or-fewer points four times. Western Kentucky gets it done thanks to their far-superior offense led by quarterback Mike White (3,826 yards, 24 touchdowns) but this is a game that I'd highly recommend avoiding on the betting front.

Pick: Western Kentucky 33-16

Celebration Bowl (12/16)
North Carolina A&T (12-1) vs. Grambling State (11-2)



I'm not even sure what to call this one. Technically it's a bowl game but neither team is a legitimate member of the FBS. Both offenses hold the ability to score 30+ points but history says this one may be pretty low-scoring (10-9 Grambling in 2016 Celebration Bowl). I'll take North Carolina A&T given their ability to hang around better and actually beat an FBS team this season (39-36 win over Kent State) while Grambling State fell 31-21 to Arizona and 43-14 to Tulane. I got nothing else other than that.

Pick: NC A&T 31-26

New Orleans Bowl (12/16)
Troy (10-2) vs. North Texas (9-4)

Considering where these two teams finished in their respective conferences, this could arguably be the best matchup out of all the non-Power Five toilet bowls. Troy, as many remember, knocked off LSU 24-21 in week-five for their biggest win in program history and finished the season on a six-game win streak, earning themselves a share of the Sun Belt crown with Appalachian State. North Texas rebounded from a 1-2 start and finished the season on a five-game win streak before falling to Florida Atlantic in the Conference USA title game. Despite playing in an offensive-friendly dome, these two defenses should hold one another in check, resulting in a pretty medium-ranged scoring affair. Jordan Chunn still runs wild for the Trojans.

Pick: Troy 27-20

New Mexico Bowl (12/16)
Colorado State (7-5) vs. Marshall (7-5)

Why the NCAA decides to hold a bowl game in New Mexico in the dead of winter every year is beyond me, but nevertheless, this game features two teams capable of scoring a lot of points. Colorado State scored 40-or-more points five times this season and reached 50 three times. The Rams will rely heavily on star wideout Michael Gallup (94 receptions, 1,345 yards, seven touchdowns) and Colorado State should have its way against a Marshall team that stumbled to the finish by losing four of five.

Pick: Colorado State 37-24

Camellia Bowl (12/16)
Arkansas State (7-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (6-6)



Middle Tennessee is no slouch, as the Blue Raiders defeated a Syracuse team that caused a lot of problems within the ACC this season (beat Clemson, almost beat Miami). However, while MTSU did score 30-or-more points in each of their final four games, I don't think they have the consistency on offense to keep up with Arkansas State. The front-seven of the Red Wolves are just as good, if not better, than some Power Five times, highlighted by former Alabama defensive tackle Dee Liner. This game lives and dies with Arkansas State quarterback Justice Hansen, who comes in after throwing for 400+ yards in back-to-back games and multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season. However, Hansen has thrown three-or-more interceptions three times this season. I think we get to see the good side of Hansen in the Camellia Bowl, and Arkansas State caps off its season with a win after pissing away their regular season finale against Troy (32-25 loss).

Pick: Arkansas State 36-26

Boca Raton Bowl (12/19)
Florida Atlantic (10-3) vs. Akron (7-6)



This game is just a pure mismatch. Lane Kiffin's FAU Owls rolled to the finish line in 2017 and enter the Boca Raton Bowl winners of nine straight and sport a Conference USA title belt around their waist. Akron was the best mediocre team in an extremely bad MAC-East Division and surrendered 45 points to Toledo in the conference title game. It's hard to imagine the Zips defense being able to withstand an Owl offense that scored 30-or-more points in each of its final 11 games and reached 50+points three times. FAU wins handily behind a big day from running back Devin Singletary and Lane Kiffin leaves to go coach at either Florida State, UCF, or Tennessee.

Pick: Florida Atlantic 49-17

Frisco Bowl (12/20)
SMU (7-5) vs. Louisiana Tech (6-6)


SMU averaged 36.75 points during their final four games. The only problem is that the Mustangs lost three of them, including a 66-45 defeat to Memphis. AKA, SMU's defense is horrendous. Quarterback Ben Hicks (3,442 yards, 32 touchdowns), thousand-yard rusher Xavier Jones along with wideouts Trey Quinn (106 receptions, 1,191 yards, 12 touchdowns) and Courtland Sutton (62 receptions, 1017 yards, 12 touchdowns) highlight SMU's potent offense. Louisiana Tech's strength is its defense, which held the likes of South Carolina, South Alabama, and UTSA to under 20 points, but were gashed by Mississippi State (57 points) and Florida Atlantic (48). SMU isn't quite on the same offensive level as a Mississippi State or Florida Atlantic, but the Mustangs should be able to score a heavy amount of points. Tech quarterback J'Mar Smith needs to have a big day in order for the Bulldogs to have any sort of chance, and even if he performs well, I still think SMU's offense is too much to handle.

Pick: SMU 41-21

Gasparilla Bowl (12/21)
Temple (6-6) vs. Florida International (8-4)



Temple earned bowl eligibility by winning three of its final four. FIU was pretty hot-and-cold throughout the season as its offense struggled out of the gate, but the Golden Panthers didn't lose to UConn like Temple did, so, therefore, it is impossible me to pick the Owls and feel good about myself. FIU also gets the advantage of playing in their home state. Butch Davis and company get the job done, but it's close and points are scarce.

Florida International 19-13

Potato Bowl (12/21)
Wyoming (7-5) vs. Central Michigan (8-4)


Whoever decided Boise, Idaho was a good location for a bowl game is an absolute maniac. Until the NCAA puts a bowl game in the yard of a Siberian gulag (which still might be better), the Potato Bowl will always reign as the king of toilet bowls. Anyways, this game lives and dies with the health of Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, who's missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. Even if healthy, Allen may pull a Christian McCaffrey or Leonard Fournette-like move and sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft. However, Allen hasn't exactly lit it up this season (1,658 yards, 13 touchdowns, six INT's) the way many projected, so he may want to consider putting on the Cowboy jersey one final time to try and improve his draft stock. Nevertheless, even if Allen suits up, I still like Central Michigan, who finished the regular season with five straight wins and scored an average of 41.2 points-per-game during that span. Wyoming's defense is pretty legit, though, as the Cowboys surrendered less than 20 points in four of their final five contests.

Pick: Central Michigan 28-23

Bahamas Bowl (12/21)
UAB (8-4) vs. Ohio (8-4)



Central Michigan beat Ohio 26-23 in the regular season, held the same record at 8-4 and a better conference record than the Bobcats at 6-2, yet the big payoff for the Chippewas was a trip to the frigid Potato Bowl while Ohio enjoys a week in paradise. Good call by the NCAA here rewarding failure. Anyways, UAB to me is the favorite in this game purely based off of their 25th ranked run defense. Ohio's ground game, highlighted by quarterback Nathan Rourke (134 carries, 882 yards, 21 touchdowns) matched up against UAB's front-seven is going to be the determining factor. If UAB is able to shut down the run game in the early going and force Rourke to drop back and pass, it could be a long day for the Bobcats, who's top receiver mustered just 32 receptions for 525 yards this season in Papi White.

Pick: UAB 27-10

Armed Forces Bowl (12/23)
Army (8-3) vs. San Diego State (10-2)

Two of nation's top rushing attacks square off and as San Diego State running back Rashaad Penny and his 2,000 yards match up against Army's always-tricky option attack. The Black Knights have been a fun story this season, winning eight games for the first time in over two decades. I just don't think the Army defense is capable of handling the never-ending physical pounding that the Aztecs have become known for with Penny touching the rock 35 times a game.

Pick: San Diego State 26-14

Dollar General Bowl (12/23)
Toledo (11-2) vs. Appalachian State (8-4)

This could sneakily be an extremely entertaining matchup as two of the better offenses in the group-of-five square off. Toledo scored its way to a MAC title behind the play of quarterback Logan Woodside (3,758 yards, 28 touchdowns) and presents an extremely difficult matchup for Appalachian State's defense. The Mountaineer offense makes it a game against Toledo's iffy defense, but the Rockets get it done. Hammer the over.

Pick: Toledo 41-30

Hawai'i Bowl (12/24)
Houston (7-4) vs. Fresno State (9-4)

If you're the type who appreciates stout defensive play and enjoys watching quarterbacks get ransacked, this is the game for you. In what will likely be Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver's final game before declaring for the NFL Draft (where he'll 100% be a first or second-round pick), expect the sophomore to have a HUGE day against Fresno State's non-existent passing attack. Meanwhile, I expect Fresno State to make life a bit hard for Houston's offense, but the Cougars definitely hold the edge as far as all-around consistency and skill on the offensive side of the ball. Fresno State is trending in the right direction but Houston knocks them down to Earth.

Pick: Houston 29-16

Arizona Bowl (12/29)
Utah State (6-6) vs. New Mexico State (6-6)



New Mexico State is in a bowl game for the first time since 1960. Yes, you read that correctly, it's actually been 57 years since New Mexico State played a football game past the midway point of December, almost too hard to imagine. Utah State might be the favorite on paper, but New Mexico State's defense enters after having not allowed 20 points in either of their final two games. Expect a big day out of both quarterback Tyler Rogers (3,825 yards, 26 touchdowns) and wideout Jaleel Scott (73 receptions, 1,042 yards, eight touchdowns) as the Aggies pull off a minor upset.

Pick: New Mexico State 24-19