Monday, September 11, 2017

Breaking Down The Latest Release Of The AP Top-25 (9/10)


With four prime time matchups between teams ranked in the top-25, you knew heading into week two that the AP rankings would see somewhat of a shakeup. Here is how the rankings look now that the second week of the 2017 college football season has come and gone, and what each team did to rise, fall, or stay where they are at.

1. Alabama (2-0) --

 No argument here. The Tide took care of business in convincing fashion against Florida State in week one (24-7) and handled Fresno State rather handily (41-10) on Saturday in Tuscaloosa. Only way Alabama slips from No. 1 this season is by losing, and Saban's crew is heavily favored in every game they play the rest of the way, so don't get your hopes up.

2. Oklahoma (2-0) +5

Just an incredible win by Baker Mayfield and the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday night in Columbus. Trailing 13-10 midway through the third quarter, Oklahoma scored 21 unanswered points before the Buckeyes cut it to 31-16 in the late going. Offensively, Oklahoma proved that they can hang with anybody in the country, and defensively, it might be time to start giving the Sooners and certain BIG-12 members (Kansas State, TCU) some respect. ACC and PAC-12 fans may not like it, but the Sooners deserve to be at No. 2 following such a like that.

3. Clemson (2-0) --

 It was a no-win situation for Clemson this week. Even if Dabo's Tigers had defeated Auburn with a dominant defensive performance that included 11 sacks like they did and Ohio State had won against Oklahoma, it's unlikely that Clemson would have leapfrogged the Buckeyes for the No. 2 spot. Sure, it's definitely a little bit surprising that Oklahoma was able to hop over the defending national champs and be the new No. 2, but it's understandable when you consider that Oklahoma went on the road and defeated a playoff team while Clemson hosted a team that went 8-4 last season and only won by a single score (14-6). Clemson faces a tough road test at Louisville in week three. A win against Lamar Jackson and company could propel the Tigers ahead of Oklahoma in the rankings this time next week.

4. USC (2-0) +2


Sam Darnold and the Trojans found themselves in a dog fight early on against Stanford on Saturday night, but in the end, the SC offense was too much for the Cardinal to handle, as the Trojans prevailed with a 42-24 statement win. The USC defense made its share of mistakes, but overall, looked drastically improved from their performance against Western Michigan a week prior. The Trojans moving up to No. 4 is very reasonable, but it's unlikely we'll see USC move up anytime soon unless 'Bama, Clemson, or Oklahoma falter. USC could (and should) beat Texas by 35+ points this weekend and they still likely wouldn't budge in the rankings.

5. Penn State (2-0) -1

 James Franklin's Nittany Lions really have yet to be truly tested, and it's not a knock on Penn State, just look at the opponents that all four teams in front of them have faced (Florida State, Auburn, Ohio State, Stanford). The AP poll isn't like the CFP committee who take a half a season's worth of games and opposition and churn out a top-25. The AP is more of a "what have you done to this very moment," and so far this season, Penn State hasn't played anywhere near the type of competition as the teams ahead of them. The Nittany Lions are definitely a threat to repeat as BIG-10 champs, but USC definitely deserves to be and is rightfully ranked higher heading into week three.

6. Washington (2-0) +1

Outside of a slow start against Rutgers, it's hard to find many flaws with Chris Peterson's Washington Huskies. Dante Pettis has been absolutely unstoppable on special teams having already returned two punts for touchdowns this season. The Huskies absolutely throttled Montana 63-7 on Saturday to move up one spot in the rankings. The Huskies don't have that early-season test that a lot of power five teams ranked in the top-25 this season have had, but it's important to remember that Washington is the returning PAC-12 champ, has a star quarterback in Jake Browning, and had to travel nearly 3,000 miles to open up its season early against Rutgers (won by 16). A September 23 rematch of the PAC-12 title game at Colorado will be a solid test for the Huskies, but for now, No. 6 is exactly where they should be.

7. Michigan (2-0) +1

 The Wolverines struggled to move the ball against a Cincinnati team that finished last season 4-8. Michigan seems to have found the answer to their quarterback woes after Wilton Speight started and played the entire game, but overall, Michigan looked sluggish against the Bearcats on Saturday. The Wolverines' schedule the next month is nothing to be fearful of with a non-conference matchup against Air Force in week three followed by three rebuilding conference opponents; @ Purdue, Michigan State, and @ Indiana. However, let us not forget that the Wolverines fell in Iowa City last November, so you can never count any BIG-10 opponent out. Michigan doesn't really deserve the No. 7 spot, but Ohio State losing allowed Harbaugh and company to move up. It is what it is.

8. Ohio State (1-1) -6

 J.T. Barrett and the Ohio State offense struggled throughout the night against Oklahoma on Saturday. Ohio State appeared lost in the second half on both sides of the ball, surrendering 21 unanswered points to the Sooners and falling 31-16. Ohio State's flaws have been apparent since last season's 31-0 blowout loss to Clemson out in the desert, and clearly, things have not gotten any better. It's still early and we've seen Ohio State rebound and win the CFP after an early-season home loss before, but that was when Michigan and Ohio State were not a significant threat to a BIG-10 East title. Ohio State now almost certainly needs to win the BIG-10 just to have a seat at the playoff table. Oklahoma is a great team so Ohio State definitely does not deserve to fall out of the top-10. The Buckeyes gets a breeze of a schedule these next few weeks taking on Army and UNLV before facing the basement of the conference in Maryland and Rutgers.

9. Oklahoma State (2-0) +2

Lopsided wins over South Alabama and Tulsa don't grab headlines or bulk up a team's reputation, but boy have Mason Rudolph and James Washington looked good during Oklahoma State's first two games. The Cowboys will face a road test at Pitt in week three before a showdown with TCU on September 23. We'll find out a lot about the Pokes in the coming weeks, but No. 9 is where they deserve to be for now.

10. Wisconsin (2-0) -2

 Wisconsin is a power-running old-school BIG-10 team. You know that. I know that. They know that. Paul Chryst's bunch has shown their share of rust, falling behind 10-0 to Utah State in their opener (won 59-10). But, realistically, the Badgers should win the BIG-10 West and meet up with either Michigan, Penn State, or Ohio State for the conference championship in Indy, especially when you consider that the Badgers do not have to play either the Nittany Lions or Buckeyes during the regular season. The Badgers belong where they are on the fringe of the top-10.

11. Florida State (0-1) -1

 We'll have to wait at least another week to see how Jimbo Fisher and the 'Noles adjust to life without Deondrea Francois (torn ACL) after Hurricane Irma forced the cancellation of Saturday's game against Louisiana-Monroe and the postponement of next Saturday's game against rival Miami. There's no shame in losing to Alabama, but even with Francois, the 'Noles got completely overmatched in the second half in week one during their 24-7 defeat. Florida State can likely push their way back into the top-10 with wins over NC State and Wake Forest the next two weeks, but it's going to be extremely difficult for the Seminoles to stay there, never mind win the ACC Atlantic, with their grueling schedule (Miami, Clemson, Louisville, Florida).

12. LSU (2-0) --

LSU has been absolutely dominant in their first two contests, shutting out BYU 27-0 at the Super Dome in week one followed by a 45-10 beating of Chattanooga on Saturday. Obviously, LSU has yet to receive the same type of early-season test like other SEC purebreds Alabama and Auburn have, but the Tigers will travel to Starkville on Saturday to take on Mississippi State before hosting Syracuse and Troy. LSU should enter their October 7 date with Florida at 5-0, and if they pass the eye test, they should also leap over Florida State and/or Wisconsin in the rankings.

13. Georgia (2-0) +2

Saturday night's win in South Bend was absolutely huge for Georgia, and rightfully, the Bulldogs were bumped up two spots in the rankings. Obviously, a major question for the Dawgs going forward is what Kirby Smart is going to do at quarterback with Jake Fromm and Jacob Eason (MCL sprain). Fromm didn't do anything spectacular in his first career start on Saturday, but he did go into a hostile environment and beat a top-25 team while throwing for 141 yards and a touchdown. Unless Fromm absolutely lights it up the rest of the way while Eason gets his knee healthy (assuming Eason doesn't play against Samford next week), Eason should return as Georgia's starting quarterback. The Bulldogs will host Mississippi State on September 23 before traveling to Tennessee the following week in a game that will likely decide the fate of the division.

14. Louisville (2-0) +3

 Louisville's defense has been far from impressive to begin the 2017 season, after allowing 28 points in week one against Purdue and 35 on Saturday at North Carolina. Fortunately, Lamar Jackson has been just as good if not better than he was during his Heisman run last season, and because of Jackson's efforts, the Cardinals are 2-0 heading into Clemson week. Louisville is ranked a bit too high for my liking given how weak their defense has looked, but they can prove me and every other doubter wrong with a strong showing against Dabo's Tigers on Saturday. This game will likely decide the fate of the ACC Atlantic.

15. Auburn (1-1) -2

 Jarrett Stidham had a rough night on Saturday in Death Valley, as the Clemson defense sacked him 11 times during Auburn's 14-6 defeat. Obviously, there's no such thing as a "quality loss," but losing by one score on the road to the defending national champs is nothing to be ashamed of. The Tigers still control their own fate in the SEC West but they'll need their offensive line to step up and protect Stidham better than they did against Clemson. If not, it could be yet another year where Auburn goes 0-2 against 'Bama and LSU and find themselves well outside the playoff race. The Tigers will get the chance to bounce back and rest some guys against Mercer this week before traveling to Missouri. Auburn's next true test will come when they host the two Mississippi schools in back-to-back weeks on October 7 and 14.

16. Virginia Tech (2-0) +2 

 Despite losing Jerod Evans to the NFL (not really, he declared but is currently out of football... idiot), the Hokie offense hasn't skipped any sort of beat throughout the first two weeks after winning a thrilling 31-24 game against West Virginia at FedEx Field to begin the season followed by a 27-0 win over Deleware. The Hokies definitely deserve to be where they are in the rankings at No. 16, and maybe a little higher. If Virginia Tech passes the eye test in their next two games against Old Dominion and East Carolina, there's no reason the Hokies shouldn't be at least at No. 14 heading into their biggest game of the year in week five at home against Clemson.

17. Miami (1-0) -1

 Thoughts and prayers to the University of Miami, their fans, and all those in the greater-Miami and South-Florida area affected by Hurricane Irma. Obviously, football gets pushed aside when you have horrific natural disasters occur like a category-five hurricane, so hopefully, Miami can win some games and give the people down there something to cheer for once this storm passes. The 'Canes had their week two match at Arkansas State canceled and their week three date with rival Florida State moved to October 7. It'll be interesting to see how Miami responds to not having played a game in exactly three full weeks when they suit up against Toledo on September 23. Mark Richt's team is exactly where they deserve to be in the rankings, as you can't bump a team up or move them down significantly when they aren't playing.

18. Kansas State (2-0) +1

 A team that finished last year 9-4, Kansas State holds high expectations for this season, as Bill Schneider's Wildcats try to stay in the race for the BIG-12 title along with the two Oklahoma schools. KSU hasn't had any sort of test to begin the season, putting up 55 points on both Central Arkansas and Charlotte in a pair of lopsided victories. The Wildcats travel to Vanderbilt this weekend, but even with a road matchup against a lower tier SEC team, it'll be hard for KSU to move up in the ranks until they get into conference play. Kansas State will host Baylor on September 23 before going on the road to Texas. A 5-0 start with wins in each of their first two conference games could put KSU into the top-15.

19. Stanford (1-1) -5

 The Good? Stanford still controls their own destiny in the PAC-12 despite Saturday's loss at USC. The Bad? The Cardinal defense showed an incredible number of flaws against the Trojans and Stanford still has to play three extremely potent offenses in UCLA, Washington, and Washington State. The Cardinal will hang around and compete for a PAC-12 North title given how strong their rushing attack is with Bryce Love, but unless David Shaw's team addresses these defensive breakdowns, it'll likely be another 9-3 or 8-4 season where Stanford finishes the season on the fringe of the top-25.

20. TCU (2-0) +3

 Gary Patterson and company have looked strong to begin the season, blanking Jackson State 63-0 and going on the road and defeating Arkansas 28-7. TCU's passing attack led by Kenny Hill and the offensive line have shown significant improvement in their first two games, all while the Frog defense completely shut down both opposing offenses. We'll see how that defensive success translates when the Horned Frogs begin BIG-12 play against more potent offenses such as Oklahoma State and West Virginia, but for now, TCU definitely deserves its No. 20 spot.

21. Washington State (2-0) -1

Saturday night's triple overtime comeback win for the ages against Boise State showed some bad but a lot of good in this Washington State team. Both Luke Falk (concussion) and Tyler Hilinski looked lost out there up until the Cougars needed somebody to step up, and with Falk knocked out of the game, Hilinski made a strong case to be Washington State's starter going forward. Hilinski put together four touchdown drives during the fourth quarter and three overtime periods, which included three touchdown passes (one to tie the game with 1:44 left and one to win it on a wheel route to Jamal Morrow in the third overtime). Washington State's defense got torched over the top several times throughout the night by Boise's Cedrick Wilson, and the Broncos gift wrapped WSU six points on an absolutely brutal pick-six on a shovel pass. So, while the Cougar defense was able to do enough to salvage a win, there is definitely room for improvement. Nevertheless, Washington State is going to cause Washington and Stanford a lot of problems in the PAC-12 North and is rightfully ranked in the bottom-fifth of the top-25.

 22. South Florida (2-0) -1

 Charlie Strong's Bulls definitely have things to improve on, but in the end, South Florida is 2-0. Sure, South Florida only beat Stony Brook 31-17 and found themselves trailing San Jose State 16-0 to begin their season. But, Quinten Flowers has looked pretty darn good with a 135.7 quarterback rating throughout his first two games. Like Miami and Florida State, South Florida has had to deal with the effects of Hurricane Irma, as their game against UConn last week was postponed. Because this is a conference game, it'll almost certainly have to be made up as both schools need to play at least eight conference games to be eligible for a bowl game. The only problem is that UConn and South Florida do not share a similar bye week, so it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. South Florida hasn't been dominant, but they are the only mid-major team who deserve to be ranked as of right now.

 23. Tennessee (2-0) +2

A 42-41 double overtime win against Georgia Tech wasn't enough to move the Vols up in the rankings, but a 35-7 win over Indiana State was? I don't know, something about that just doesn't seem right, but oh well. Quarterback Quinten Dormady does not provide the same type of offensive approach as the departed Josh Dobbs did with his dual-threat versatility, and Tennessee needs to adapt and play to his strengths. Either Tennessee or Florida will be dropping from the rankings with the two schools set to meet on Saturday in Gainesville, but for now, Tennessee hasn't done anything to warrant a drop. No. 23 is reasonable for Big Orange heading into week three.

 24. Florida (0-1) -2

 The Gators had 10 of their starters suspended for the opener against Michigan, and it showed with a 33-17 defeat. With Hurricane Irma forcing a cancellation of their match with Northern Colorado, the Gators will host Tennessee on Saturday for a massive tilt that could decide the fate of their season. So far this year, Florida's greatest issue has been off the field rather than on it. Yes, the Gators struggled mightily against Michigan in Arlington, but it's difficult to criticize a team playing a significant number of its backups against a Jim Harbaugh coached offense. If Jim McElwain can get his guys to stop being clowns off the field, the Gators should be able to compete for the SEC East crown. If not, things could get ugly real quick. Florida needs this one bad.

 25. UCLA (2-0) NR
The Josh Rosen-led comeback against Texas A&M on opening weekend was absolutely incredible and might have completely turned around UCLA's season. Following a 56-23 win over Hawai'i, the Bruins moved into the No. 25 spot in the rankings. Unless UCLA has a poor showing on the road against Memphis on Saturday, they should remain ranked.
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